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Stanley
07-26-2004, 07:04 PM
Outright plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
It is better to look for players who were out of contention or missed the Open Championship for the PGA Tour events immediately afterwards. Ames missed the cut at Royal Troon and lacking links practice over the last few years that should not be a concern. He won his last PGA Tour start and can count seven top-10 finishes in his last eight starts in North America. He has a solid record around Warwick Hills with all twelve rounds under-par in the last three years and should be counted upon to be in contention once again.

K.J. Choi to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Choi was in contention at Royal Troon two weeks ago - he was just two strokes off the lead at the start of the weekend - but he fell back over the weekend and will have had to chance to recharge his batteries after missing the cut last week. With four top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour already this season and two PGA Tour wins since 2002, he is certainly capable of winning when in form and he has shown some that form recently.

Fred Funk to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Funk did not play at Royal Troon, opting instead to compete in the B.C. Open where he closed in good form with three successive 68s. Last week 68 was his worst score en route to a 2nd place finish, so he is certainly a player in form and he does play well at Warwick Hills. He has played here every year since 1989 and has finished in the top-25 in ten of the last eleven years. He hasn't won a Tour event for six years, so the place-only option looks the best way to profit form such consistency.

Stanley
07-27-2004, 07:37 PM
Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Jerry Kelly to beat Paul Casey -110 @ Bet365 [3pts]
Casey is not at his best at the moment and it is surprising that he is playing in this event when his place in the Ryder Cup is far from secure. He has not played this course previously and his form on the PGA Tour is erratic at best. Better to side with a player who has played here three times previously and ranks 2nd only to Tiger Woods in terms of consecutive cuts made on Tour.

Scott Verplank to beat K.J. Choi -125 @ Centrebet
An insurance against Choi as an outright selection, perhaps? But Verplank is the 3rd ranked player on Tour in terms of consecutive cuts, so is a dependable player in matchups even if a little suspect on Sundays when near the top of the leaderboard. He leads Choi 7-3-1 h2h this year, so it should take a place win for Choi for this matchup to be a loser.

Jeff Sluman to beat John Rollins -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Sluman is even more dominant in this matchup. Rollins has finished ahead of him on only three occasions in 14 common events this year. And there is a big difference in course form as well. Rollins missed the cut by six shots on his debut last year, while Sluman has missed just two cuts in 20 attempts since 1983. Should be straightforward.

AlwaysDoubleDown
07-28-2004, 07:54 PM
I thought that you would be on Geoff Ogilvy this week. He played well last year and has improved. The only thing is he is suspect on sundays. Do you think he can win?

Stanley
07-28-2004, 08:04 PM
He certainly is suspect on Sundays. But if Stephen Ames can win, then so can Ogilvy. He wasn't far from my short-list, but was just a little too inconsistent for me. 50/1 and upwards would certainly be fair odds for him.

Further matchup plays (1.5pts):

Glen Day to beat Joe Ogilvie -103 @ Five Dimes
Siding with Day primarily on course form. In three visits to Warwick Hills, Ogilvie has a finish of 69th, a missed cut and a post-1st round withdrawal. Day has made the cut in five of the last six years, finishing ahead of Ogilvie each year that Ogilvie played and has finished ahead of him in their last two common events.

Fred Funk to beat Scott Hoch -106 @ Pinnacle
Siding with Funk in the matchups as well as the outrights. He has dominated this matchup this year with a 7-1-1 h2h record against Hoch in 2004 and he does have a very good record around this course. Hoch hasn't played here for five years and his last top-10 finish at Warwick Hills was back in 1991.
(available generally)

Stanley
08-01-2004, 06:48 PM
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-2; -2.00pts

Ames mc
Choi mc
Funk dns

I suppose the only positive was that the stake was returned on Funk. Very poor otherwise.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0-0; +6.00pts

Day/Ogilvie WON by 8
Funk/Hoch VOID (Funk dns)
Kelly/Casey WON by 5
Verplank/Choi WON by 7
Sluman/Rollins VOID (Rollins dns)

Only three plays survived, but three comfortable wins to compensate for the poor outright plays.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 13-76; +10.85pts
Matchups: 102-79; +11.29pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 63-240; +207.29pts
Matchups: 288-226; +43.13pts