British Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Sergio Garcia to win 20/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Would love to back Els for this event, but his odds are just a bit too skinny at 15/2. Instead siding with Garcia as the main selection. Links golf requires imagination, flair and a good putting stroke and the Spaniard has all three. Top-10 finishes in each of the last three years are supportive and his game has finally began to return since the end of last year. He has won two out of his last five PGA Tour starts and again looks like the world class player that he once was.

Davis Love to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
Is past history on links courses is a good indicator, then Love should be set for another good week in this event. He didn't secure his first top-10 in this event until Royal Troon in 1997, but his worst finish ever since has been 21st. An excellent weekend performance saw him finish 7th in the Western Open two weeks ago and suggest that he is close to his early season form. If so, this should be another top-10 finish for Love in the Open Championship.

Stuart Appleby to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Tote [both 6 places]
Appleby was edged out in a four-way playoff two years ago, but with a total of three top-15 finishes in the last four years, it was hardly a surprise performance. He completes a trio of players who are comfortable playing wind and he showed this to good effect in winning the Mercedes Championship in Hawaii at the start of the year. Like Love, a strong showing at the Western Open two weeks ago - he finished 5th - suggests that a return to his early season form may be imminent.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Like the picks, Stanley. I look forward to your picks each week....I'm really getting into wagering on golf. I've been lucky enough to put a two weekend string together...I picked Ames and Hensby the last two weeks....thanks a lot, in part, to your picks and analysis.

Just had a question....the odds this weekend seem really high...which I like. What long shots would you be willing to put a few dollars/pounds on?

So far this week, I went ahead and took Els at 8/1....he's playing so well and came on strong at Loch Lamond. I also like Vijay at 16/1. That's pretty much it for the lower odds....

However, what do you think about Tim Clark at 100/1? Seems high for a pretty good player. Lehman, coming off an impressive finish @ Loch Lamond, is 125/1? Again, seems high. If there is one major championship where a long shot can win, this is it....look at recent history....Ben Curtis, Lawrie, Leonard....

What about Levet? Any input on the long shots? Much appreciated.

[woodee12]

Hi Guys. Thanks for the insight.

Have not played anythin gyet but taking your picks into account.

Other decent prices I have seen:

Goosen 14/1
Harrington 18/1
Price 75/1
Leonard 66/1


May pick one long shot to play also. Lets put our heads together and see if we can get the best long shot to throw some money on.

I will be back later to update and see whta you guys think.

Thanks again for the picks so far.

[Stanley]

125/1 is a high price for Lehman, but I just don't see him in the frame. Sure, he can be competitive around Loch Lomond where he has a great record, but this is event is very different. I also don't think Harrington will do particularly well - he is not playing well enough for me to warrant those odds.

I do however the South Africans, Els and Goosen, will do particularly well. I can't find myself supporting someone at single-figure in the British Open or Els would be a cast-iron pick. And Goosen would have been a selection if he not won both the U.S. Open and the European Open. He admitted to feeling very tired at the European Open so this event may be one too far. To win three events (or two majors) in a row is a huge ask.

Can't see Levet winning the week after winning in Scotland, but the French players have been veyr impressive this year ... Levet, Havret, Remesy. They have all risen to the top of the European Tour and there could certainly be a French winner within the next few years.

I do like Clark as a selection. More likely to finish in the top-5 than win, but he has played golf all over the world and that stands him in good stead for links golf. Maruyama (100/1) is another one in the ilk. In the 66/1 bracket, Jacobson and Bjorn are certainly capable of winning and have good records in links golf.

The type & odds of the winner will be decided by the weather. So far the expected winds are not too large, so I don't think the winner will be anything like Lawrie or Curtis proportions.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thanks for the insight, Stanley...has your opinion on Appleby changed a little since the weather forecast calls for less wind. Your analysis was right on about Appleby in the wind...but is he less likely to win if the weather conditions are mild?

He has been up and down this year....just curious.

I also threw a small wager on Cink @ 100/1. Long shot, but he has been playing steady lately. I don't know why...but I think the recent success of American players in the Open ends this year. I've definitely leaned towards a non American player winning this year...just a gut feeling.

Other payouts I like are:

Poulter 80/1
Immelmann 90/1

I tend to agree about Levet...I'll lay off him. I also agree about Harrington...he hasn't been playing well, but I know he's got the game to win this tourney.

Woodee, Harrington at 18/1 are some stinky odds. Right now, I'm getting him at 26/1.

I'm really excited about the Open...I love watching links tourneys on tv. I'll be having a Bloody Mary Sunday morning gathering to watch the final round....betting on golf is so much fun!:thumbs:

[Stanley]

There won't be no wind, the forcast is up to 8mph on Thursday and up to 15mph on Friday so be able to play in a breeze should help. However, the winds can really blow in this event that can produce larger-priced winners. BTW a famous tale about the wind at Troon is that in a tournament played in there in 1952 a fish was found floundering in the 4th green!

72-hole matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Davis Love to beat Stephen Ames -110 @ Bet365 [2pts]
Ames is one of the most in-form players on the PGA Tour at the moment, but just feel that his rustiness of links golf will harm his chances this week. He has only qualified for one of the last five Opens, while Love has finished no worse than 21st in the last seven. With Love showing some form at Cog Hill, he should have a good chance of beating Ames on this type of course.
(also available at Intertops)

Chad Campbell to beat David Toms -111 @ SIA
Toms did win the Fedex St Jude Classic, but where that win came from, I don't know. Troubled by injury earlier in the season, he has been in dire form since returning to action apart from that one week. No wonder that Campbell has a 7-2-1 h2h lead over him in 2004. He was also eight shots ahead of him when Toms missed the cut last year and a similar weekend back home is expected for Toms this year as well.
(also available at Expekt)

Kenny Perry to beat David Toms +100 @ Pinnacle [2pts]
Juts can't see Toms as the favourite here. While Toms was missing the cut last year, Perry played in his first Open Championship for 12 years and finished 8th. Displaying good form before the U.S. Open, this should be an easy win for Perry.

K.J. Choi to beat Tim Herron -125 @ William Hill and Easybets [2pts]
Herron has played in this event three times, the last time in 2000, and made the cut only once. And while he has been playing better of late, he has only finished ahead of Choi once in their last six common events. Choi should be the favourite on the PGA Tour, but his advantage should be much greater overseas. On his last visit to Europe, he won the German Masters. That ability to play on courses all over the world is a big advantage in this event.

K.J. Choi to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Pinnacle and Aces
Similar story here. Choi dominates this matchup on the PGA Tour - he leads Howell 9-4-0 in 2004 - and finished 33 places ahead of him when Howell made his debut in this event last year. Howell's game is perfect for TPC courses and Royal Troon will be very far removed from that type of setup!
(also available at Five Dimes and Olympic)

Sandy Lyle to beat David Duval -175 @ Bet365
Don't get too many opportunities to oppose Duval nowadays, but will do so here. He shot 83-82 in his first outing for eight months at the U.S. Open and looked more like one of the ceremonial player at the Masters than a Tour player. Lyle has been making cuts on the European Tour, but won't need to do so to beat Duval who should struggle to beat 80 again.

Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson -135 @ Intertops
Surprised that only one firm has offered this matchup so far. There was an easy win for Els in this matchup last week and it extended his h2h record against Mickelson on the European Tour to 13-0-0 since 1996. Will certainly take these odds given that stat.

Nick Price to beat Zach Johnson -111 @ BetandWin [2pts]
Johnson has never played outside North America so this will be quite a rude awakening. This should be straightforward for Price who has an excellent links record, plus he has a 5-3-0 h2h lead over Johnson on the PGA Tour this year.

[Stanley]

Further 72-hole play (1pt):

Davis Love to beat Jim Furyk -150 @ Five Dimes
Furyk's recovered wrist will be put to the test around the tangly rough at Royal Troon and he could easily miss the cut as he has done in the last three Open Championships. In fact, Love has finished ahead of him in each of the last five years, so even if fit, Furyk should struggle to win on a links course.

[tstarkey]

Here are the plays I am playing for the British open:

These plays to win:
Garcia 13-1 1 unit
N. Price 80-1 .5 unit

Top England and Ireland player
Darren Clarke 6.5-1 1 unit

Top Usa player
Kenny Perry 20-1 .5 unit

Top rest of Europe player
Sergio Garcia even 2 units

Tournament matchup plays
N. Price -130 vs Scott Verplank 2 units
E. Els -110 vs Tiger Woods 3 units
S. Garcia -125 vs Phil Mickelson 1 unit

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +1.63pts

Garcia mc
Love 5th
Appleby 36th

What an incredible piece of luck! I though Love had blown his chance of a place finish when he failed to birdie the par-five 16th hole, but he holed out from the fairway on the last hole to secure the profit on the outrights. Had never looked like getting this into profit until that one shot.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 7-1-0; +9.89pts

Love/Ames WON by 8
Campbell/Toms LOST by 4
Perry/Toms WON by 4
Choi/Herron WON by 11
Choi/Howell WON by 6
Lyle/Duval VOID (Duval dns)
Els/Mickelson WON by 1
Price/Johnson WON by 7
Love/Furyk WON by 5

A great return on the plays with just one loser. Pity that Duval didn't start as Lyle made the cut with ease, but a very nice profit on the event overall.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 12-36; -6.16pts
Matchups: 43-31; +13.77pts