Troubleduke
07-05-2004, 09:08 AM
Yesterday: 4-2 (+2.13 units)
MLB YTD: 22-17 (+8.67 units)
Reds @ Cardinals u9 (-110)
Both the Reds and Cardinals starting pitchers in today's matchup have pitched well recently, giving up a low amount of hits compared to the average number of hits given up in the average MLB game. The Cardinals have slightly above average hitting right now, and the Reds are slightly below average, and are also missing some key hitters in the their lineup that give them at least respectable bats. I think there is at least a 55% chance this will stay under the total or 9 runs.
Rockies (+145) @ Giants
When I capped this game all the numbers came out pretty similar, for both hitting and pitching. So this really a play against these posted odds. I think the linesmaker is overvaluing San Francisco here, and knows the public will more often than not go with the Giants here. The Rockies normally don't play well away from home which concerns me a bit, but not enough to lay off this play.
Mets (-110) @ Phillies
Why Paul Abbott has been getting so much respect from the linesmaker is beyond me. Especially in a matchup like this one. I just don't see how the strong Mets bats don't tee off today against him. Glavine won't completely shutout the Phillies against their above average bats in a ballpark like this on a humid night, but he can usually go deep into a game, almost always giving the Mets hitters a chance to win.
Pirates (+150) @ Marlins
Another play against the odds on the no respect Pirates. I think the betting public still remembers Beckett's performance in the World Series and the linesmaker has to compensate for that. Wells hasn't performed much worse than Beckett and the Pirates bats are very hot right now. Between my two underdog plays (the Rockies being the other one), I feel more comfortable with the Rockies, but I still like my chances here as well.
Rangers @ Indians o 8.5 (-110)
My assumption is that the total is set this low strictly because of the listed pitchers. However looking at the hitting of both teams, it will be extremely difficult for both pitchers to contain the strong bats. Also throw in the fact that Sabathia is coming off a minor injury here. The last time he pitched he lasted one full inning. Something tells me he isn't going to last more than five innings today, with him being injury prone and the strong Rangers hitting. If the Rangers hitting gets to face the Indians bullpen for several innings, they should be able to put up all sorts of crooked numbers.
Good luck to all today.
All 1 unit.
Troubleduke
MLB YTD: 22-17 (+8.67 units)
Reds @ Cardinals u9 (-110)
Both the Reds and Cardinals starting pitchers in today's matchup have pitched well recently, giving up a low amount of hits compared to the average number of hits given up in the average MLB game. The Cardinals have slightly above average hitting right now, and the Reds are slightly below average, and are also missing some key hitters in the their lineup that give them at least respectable bats. I think there is at least a 55% chance this will stay under the total or 9 runs.
Rockies (+145) @ Giants
When I capped this game all the numbers came out pretty similar, for both hitting and pitching. So this really a play against these posted odds. I think the linesmaker is overvaluing San Francisco here, and knows the public will more often than not go with the Giants here. The Rockies normally don't play well away from home which concerns me a bit, but not enough to lay off this play.
Mets (-110) @ Phillies
Why Paul Abbott has been getting so much respect from the linesmaker is beyond me. Especially in a matchup like this one. I just don't see how the strong Mets bats don't tee off today against him. Glavine won't completely shutout the Phillies against their above average bats in a ballpark like this on a humid night, but he can usually go deep into a game, almost always giving the Mets hitters a chance to win.
Pirates (+150) @ Marlins
Another play against the odds on the no respect Pirates. I think the betting public still remembers Beckett's performance in the World Series and the linesmaker has to compensate for that. Wells hasn't performed much worse than Beckett and the Pirates bats are very hot right now. Between my two underdog plays (the Rockies being the other one), I feel more comfortable with the Rockies, but I still like my chances here as well.
Rangers @ Indians o 8.5 (-110)
My assumption is that the total is set this low strictly because of the listed pitchers. However looking at the hitting of both teams, it will be extremely difficult for both pitchers to contain the strong bats. Also throw in the fact that Sabathia is coming off a minor injury here. The last time he pitched he lasted one full inning. Something tells me he isn't going to last more than five innings today, with him being injury prone and the strong Rangers hitting. If the Rangers hitting gets to face the Indians bullpen for several innings, they should be able to put up all sorts of crooked numbers.
Good luck to all today.
All 1 unit.
Troubleduke