Western Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Jerry Kelly to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Olympic
This is an important event for Wisconsin-born Kelly and he normally raises his game for it as well. In the past three years he has finished 3rd, 1st and 5th. His recent form has been steady rather than spectacular and a recent cortisone shot has reportedly helped a great deal with his season-long shoulder injury. He still ranks 2nd behind Woods in terms of consecutive cuts made and he should finish much closer to the top than the bottom of the leaderboard on Sunday. No wins since lifting this title in 2002, so taking the place-only option.

Steve Flesch to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
Flesch has already won this year, but I still feel safer playing him place-only. Apart from his win at the Colonial last month, he finished 5th in the Wachovia Championship in his previous start and has finished 33rd in the Memorial and 7th in the U.S. Open since. That's impressive form and with two top-10 finishes in the last four year's around Dubsdread, this could be another high finish for Flesch.

Stephen Ames to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
High finishes have become the norm for Ames with six top-10 finishes in his last seven starts so it is surprising that he is as high as 40/1 to win. He does have some form on this course with two top-20 finishes in five visits, but his game is at a different level this year, being ranked 2nd only to Goosen in the Tour 'All-Around Ranking' category. Still to win on Tour, so he completes a trio of players backed at place-only odds.

[Stanley]

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ Centrebet
Opposing Choi who, despite some good form in the run-up to this event, always struggles around this course. In the last four years, he has missed the cut twice and has a best finish of 60th. That does not compare well with Allenby who win this event in 2000 and has finished in the top-10 in the last two years.
(also available at Expekt)

Stephen Ames to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ Paddy Power
Ames is simply in better form and has finished of Choi on all four occasions that the Korean teed it up at Dubsdread.

Stephen Ames to beat Zach Johnson -138 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Against Ames' run of six top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, Johnson has failed to record a single top-10 finish since winning the BellSouth Classic three months ago. No surprise, therefore, that he has only finished ahead of Ames in three of their thirteen common events this season. Having also no course experience, the rookie should struggle to win this match.

Scott Verplank to beat Chad Campbell +100 @ Pinnacle [3pts]
This is a course on which the short game is important and in this department, Verplank has the advantage. Both are straight off the tee, but whereas Campbell ranks 55th in scrambling, Verplank ranks 3rd. Similarly, in terms of putting average and putts per round, Verplank ranks 23rd and 15th respectively, while Campbell lies 89th and 129th in these tables. So there is good reason to make Verplank to favourite in this match apart from the fact that he has the third longest cuts made streak on Tour whereas Campbell has missed his last two.
(available generally)

Steve Flesch to beat Shigeki Maruyama -119 @ Expekt
Maruyama did finish 4th in the U.S. Open two weeks ago, but he had missed two of his previous three cuts so it is safe to say that he somewhat erratic at the moment. It is the same with his course form, so with Flesch being very consistent at the moment and having finished ahead of Maruyama in four of their last five common events, he should do so again this week.

Tiger Woods to beat Vijay Singh -133 @ Pinnacle
Neither player at the top of their game at the moment, but an out-of-sorts Tiger is still a lot better than an out-of-sorts Vijay. He has finished ahead of him in each of their last four common events and in five of their seven common attempts on this title. That makes these odds look rather on the generous side.
(available generally)

[Stanley]

Further 72-hole matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Jerry Kelly to beat Chad Campbell -120 @ Five Dimes
Opposed Campbell with Verplank so will certainly also oppose him with one of the outright selections. This is a much more important event for Kelly and he should extend his 9-3-0 h2h lead over Campbell in 2004.

Jerry Kelly to beat K.J. Choi -118 @ Five Dimes
Choi is in much better form than Kelly, but struggles around this course. As with Ames, he has finished behind Kelly on four occasions that he had competed in this event so he should struggle to keep up his recent good form.

Davis Love to beat Charles Howell -130 @ Five Dimes
Love's back problems have denied him the ability to maintain his early season, but he still always picks up his game around Dubsdread. In his last two visits he has finished 2nd both times and while Howell has been securing some top-10 finishes recently, he has also been missing a lot of cuts. That makes him a good player to oppose in matchups and while Love's form has dipped, he has still finished ahead of Howell in four of their last five common events.

Tiger Woods to beat David Toms -170 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
You just wouldn't see this matchup at better than -250 until this year. Yes, Tiger's in a slump and he's struggling with his swing, but he has still finished in the top-4 in three of his last four events and he still hasn't missed a cut since the 1998 Buick Invitational; Toms has missed six of his last ten. So with Woods leading Toms 7-0-0 h2h in 2004, these still look decent odds.

Tiger Woods to beat Mike Weir -175 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
Similar story here. Weir did finish 4th in the U.S. Open two weeks ago, but it was his first top-15 finish since he won the Nissan Open in February. An out-of-sorts Tiger does not fall that far and having won this title three times in the last six years, it is hard to see him far from the leaderboard no matter how badly he is swinging.

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final Result: 1-2: +9.00pts

Kelly 33rd
Flesh mc
Ames 1st

Did pick the winner, but only to finish in the top-5! Cost over 25pts, but it was still a very profitable event.

Matchups - Final Result: 9-1-0: +14.72pts

Allenby/Choi WON by 7
Ames/Choi WON by 11
Ames/Johnson WON by 5
Verplank/Campbell WON by 9
Flesch/Maruyama LOST by 4
Woods/Singh WON by 2
Kelly/Campbell WON by 3
Kelly/Choi WON by 1
Love/Howell WON by 2
Woods/Weir WON by 9

Very pleasing result. Made up for the losses on the U.S. Women's Open!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 13-65; +26.35pts
Matchups: 92-75; +3.72pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 53-207; +112.15pts
Matchups: 246-202; +12.99pts