Over and Under NFL Future Plays

[MR MJ]

Hi UC cappers!!.....it was a fun and profitable NBA playoff and NHL Playoff ride for me(20-3 +22105 units) and look forward to sharing my NFL Plays with the crew.....

I am going to start with some Over/Under NFL team Win Totals and with a little pigskin magic.....a nice profit at the end of the season.


Lets delve into the plays!!! :thumbs:


I am betting ALL of the following:


Dallas 9 UNDER +120....Expectations are high in Big D(whats new) and with a QB that still has a hard time reading Defenses and a suspect Running game....this win total is a little high and unrealistic.In a beefed up Division with Washington and Philly making key pickups in the offseason..it should make life rough for the Cowboys.The team snuck up on the NFL last year making a big jump in the win column....and with such a HIGH number on the Over (-160) and such a huge following by the country to back another possible improvment....Im going the other way....Laying 1.2 dimes on Dallas UNDER 9 wins.


Denver 9 UNDER -125.....Portis is gone and this is HUGE....Plummer will be exposed again as a so-so QB and make life rough for the already pourous defense by turning the ball over too much.Shanahan looks like his days are numbered in Denver and with Shannon Sharpe retiring.....I see a BIG drop by Denver.....Laying 1.25 units on Denver UNDER 9 Wins.


Detroit OVER 6 wins -155.....2 big WR for Harrington,a healthy RB and a average defense make this Lion team fighting for .500 all year long....there gonna score like crazy and stay around the divsion leader for awhile....LOVE this play....Laying 1.55 dimes on Detroit OVER 6 wins.


Jacksonville OVEr 7.5 wins -130...Leftwich looked very good in the starting role last year...the defense was good and the running game will prosper with Taylor if he stays healthy.....Del Rio is gonna have a sleeping giant on his hands with this club...so watch out!! Laying 1.3 dimes on Jax OVER 7.5 wins.


NE UNDER 10.5 -130.....Simple...Super Bowl champs are ALWAYS overpriced and overprojected......injuries have GOT to happen for this team....I know they could repeat....but 11 wins is tough especially with the Jets looking to take the division crown back from them...I see a let down...in the reg season....still a threat for the Super Bowl....but too many things went right for too long in NE....Laying 1.3 dimes on NE UNDER 10.5


Jets OVER 9 +120....I see this team breaking out and finally making that push as one of the best teams in the NFL....Healthy Pennington and a BIG WR in Mcariens should make Pennington the starting QB in the Pro Bowl....I love this team alot this year...possibly winning the divison and threatning for the Lombardi award....Laying 1 dime on OVEr 9 wins on the Jets.


Oakland OVER 8 +140.....this may be a steal...huge pickups...a front line on both sides that can dominate the ball....2 QBs that can start on most teams....WOW!!...The Raiders may be back!!Laying 1 dime on the Raider OVER.


WIll come back later and explain in more depth why I like these teams....this is just who I like and I will add more to the stiry of WHY I am taking the teams above.

GL!


:thumbs:

[BillB]

First, I believe that your wager is su - so my discussion will be on the Patriot records su rather than ats.

The Patriots had a dismal 2002 year, but still went 9-7 ats.
What they did do in 2002 was lose dismally three times at home.

In '03, they lost two games on the road, while going 8-0 at home. They played 5 regular season games against teams that went to the playoffs.

During the off-season, a few key people left the team, but equal or better players were aquired through free agency and the draft. Please remember that 42 diferent players started for the patriots last year to cover for injuries, many of them were rookies - the secondary is better than ever, and Roosevelyt Colvin didn't really play last year.

Meanwhile, the offense picked up Corey Dillon, while Johnson, Givens, and Branch are a year better; Graham might have stone fingers, but there's not a better blocking TE in the league - and he might learn how to catch a few this year.

I could go on and on - but the idea is that I just don't see this New England team imploding the way they did in '02.

If the wager were ats, I might just join you, but for a su o/u wager of 10.5, I'll take the over.

That's my take - but who knows - stranger things have happened.

Good luck,

[MR MJ]

BillB...I see your points and agree...but 11-5 is gonna be a tough task for NE...remember 2 Games vs Jets,Bills and Miami....that may be 2-3-4 losses right there....and even if they do go only 2-3 Losses in division....remember the SB champ always has one of THE toughest schedules and has alot of MNF games....one at least on the road....alot of teams gunning for NE...alot of things went right in that 15-0 streak...but if Brady or Key Oline or D lineman goes down....I think 10-6 is very feasible....The books ALWAYS put high numbers on SB champs and I think almost EVERY SB winner the last 5 years either didnt make playoffs or fell to earth and had a rough season the next year(99 Rams,2000 Ravens,2001 NE,2002 Bucs....all DID NOT make playoffs I believe the following year)

Just a rule of thumb...go against the SB champs on Win totals and take the under....I see good value in this and will take my chances.

Good read by you though.

[BillyBarooooooo]

I had Alot of notes here until Kevin erased them.

Play against the SB champs the first 4 games against the ATS. Pretty soild numbers. I will have to dig them out!!!!

[MR MJ]

will do on those bet agaisnt SB champs ATS the first 4 games.....Im sure the stats are very high for this angle.

[silkypicks]

i like the eagles over 9'
they added some missing parts
should get 12 wins this year

:thumbs:

[MR MJ]

very good bet silky...and I agree!

Mcnabb has THE best WR in the game...a very adequate running game and if hes healthy all year...10-11 wins should be acheived....the defense is not great,but they can hold the ship....Philly in Overs this year might be smart as well...they will score and give up points....

and will this finally be the year Philly gets the Lombardi?? I hope so....I liked them the 2 years ago...and a little last year(I had Titans winning the SB at the start of last year....than Mcnair got hurt late..bascially taking away that scrambling ability and if he would of been healthy vs NE....they would of won the whole thing)....anyway,GL with your Eagles....this HAS to be the year they go or win....if not.....Reid is gone.

[silkypicks]

gl lock
keep the good info coming
we appreciate it

:thumbs:

[MR MJ]

Is there a line yet on the over/under wins with Sf 49ers?

[Student]

49ers +/- 5 games

[stickbit]

thanks for the insight and picks mr lock! how do you do in football if you don't mind me asking? your are great in the other sports...would you rank football as a favor yours or no?

I CANT WAIT FOR NFL !!!!!!!

[DreSoN22]

I love the Jaguars pick. I def think they'll have over 7.5 wins. GL on the rest!!

[MR MJ]

Stick,I have done well in NFL reg season in the past,but save my best for the NFL playoffs.

I will play anywhere from 1 play a week to 5 plays.....just like in NBA,MLB and NHL.

[Blood,Sweat & Beers]

Mr. Lock,

You need to change your forum name and your quote.

The word LOCK is bad luck.

[MR MJ]

Blood,sweat and beers....I am not trying to argue or get into a war of words with you...so please take the stuff below in stride....

The word LOCK is GOOD LUCK for me.....and the name MR LOCK and my signature are my labels that I gave myself....

29-6-1 is my record---82.8%

I have been here since May 15th posting plays....almost 2 CALENDAR MONTHS.

I am 15-3 in NBA(3-0 in spread favs,4-0 in ML favs,2-0 in underdog spread,2-0 in ML underdogs,2-0 in Overs,2-2 in series bets,0-1 in prop bets)---83% +15100 units

I am 10-3-1 in MLB(7-3 with MLB favs,1-0-1 in OVERs,2-0 in MLB underdogs)---76% +7450 units

I am 4-0 in NHL(2-0 in NHL favs,1-0 in NHL underdogs,1-0 in NHL series bets)--100% +5.05 units

I have a +28055 unit winnings that I started with +0.00 units

I went 17-0 from May 15th to the 3rd game of the NBA Finals in NBA,NHL and MLB....thats right 17-0!!! I had 2 underdog spreads in NBA,2 ML underdogs in NBA,4 ML favs in NBA,1 NBA favorite vs the spread,1 underdog vs the spread,2 NHL favs,1 NHL underdog,1 NHL fav series bet,1 NBA over total,1 MLB favorite and 1 NBA favorite series bet in that run...17 bets I won in a row from the day I started this forum....alll documented here,before gametime and acknowledged.......so,if the word DID have any effect as you have prescribed....

why is it I went 17-0 without BAD LUCK?

why did I go 12-6 after this?

why?.....because the word LOCK is just that...a word....just a word bro.

PLUS...I did NOT lose a SIDE or TOTAL bet out of the above bets until 11 days ago(2 Fridays ago with Marlins).....that is around 30 bets and 50 calendar days of NOT LOSING A SIDE OR TOTAL....the only bets I lost were 2 series bets and a prop for the first 50 some odd days!!


Im currently on a 9-3-1 run in MLB since NBA ended(after a 20-3 start)...with 2 of my last bets winners as MLB underdogs.

I have ONLY doubled up or more on units placed per dime win only 7 times out of 36 bets(ie if line was -250....I layed 5 dimes to win 2 dimes)

heres the breakdowns on the double ups or more:

Twice in MLB on games,twice on NBA series bets,twice on NBA playoff games(which were underdogs ML plays that were good +'s)and once on a NHL playoff game.

So the other 29 bets were all money managed with just the amount posted to win 1 dime(ie game was -150...so I layed 1.5 dimes to win a dime)

Plus....outside of my OFFICIAL BETS that are my 29-6-1 record...I have posted MANY LEANS that proved profitable and most have won...though I wont take an OUNCE of credit for them since they are NOT OFFICIAL.

As far as the word LOCK.....I understand the concern with the word....but I have shown with my streak and record that a "word" has ZERO impact on sports betting......I am not superstitious,I dont believe in ghosts or fairy tales....so...the name I take is showing to all that I am ,in essence, "slaying the dragon" called LOCK.Many have tailed me and made money and have given me props for giving them SOLID WINNERS and I am VERY HAPPY to see people win money like I am......and thats the whole goal here...FOR ALL TO WIN MONEY!! This goal I want for EVERYONE.....from people who like me or hate me...I want EVERY LAST PERSON here to win money all the time.

Okay heres a Question...say I go...hmmm.....88-30 the next 7 months and +200 units and its 9 months after I went 29-6-1....is this still BAD LUCK?

Even if I am providing winning plays more than losing with profit in the plus?

.should people think I am "jinxing their bets,even if I post a GREAT winning %?

Or is it just the case of a losing streak within a LONG winning streak and just bad timing that people choose to tail me and lose and fire back "YOUR BAD LUCK!" and not really see the big picture of ALL MY BETS that provide winnings over the long haul....but still want to blame me just because they choose to tail me that particular day?

You see....its NOT a "jinx" ....I just want to show you that....its all in our heads this thing we call a "jinx".....its just something we all want to blame our loss(es) on so we can justify,rationalize and validate in our minds to make us feel better and put the blame on the persons pick,who happened to be called MR LOCK so it had to be his fault it lost....thus calling me a jinx/bad luck.

Not trying to be a jerk or anything....its just that I dont think a "word" has ANY bearing WHATSOEVER whether anyone wins or loses.....its just the way it all shakes out day in and day out that matters....and if this "jinx" is REAL...why hasnt it taken care of me yet?

What is "IT" waiting for?

Why is it waiting to take its effect on me and "jinx me"...is it leading me on?Is it playing games with me and letting me win for almost 2 months here and than POOF!..HOCUS POCUS I am "JINXED"?

Cmon...I think I would be losing daily or very often if the "jinx" was REAL.....but my record and streak SHOW....that the word has in fact.....DONE ME RIGHT and has NO EFFECT IN THE SPORTS BETTING WORLD!

Lets move on....

As far as the military refrence in my signature......that phrase is in HOMAGE to the many men and women who have EVER served my country we call THE USA...and showing the immense love,honor and respect I have for the military....and creating a slogan they can ALWAYS be proud of....."NOTHING BEATS THEM!"..and have intertwined it with my confidence in betting.

Again....I respect EVERYONE here,I love this forum,I respect the mods,I respect peoples thoughts on games we bet on.....so please respect my name and signature.....it is my way of portraying the way I approach not only sports betting....but life....head on!

I cannot change my name.....so please respect my wishes.

And lastly.....for people who are going to take this the WRONG way....I cant help that...this is my personality and I will NOT reply to any attacking,negative comments that will try and take this into another tangent....this reply explains it all.If the name and content REALLY bother you this much after all I have said...please just do not read my threads....and just overlook them....its really very simple.....I dont want to argue,fight,bicker and go on about nothing....all I want to do is show my play/record/units won or lost,commend people on success and discuss SPORTS that deal with wagering....anything else is a waste of time for me so I wont participate if its indirectly spun in a negative light which to create an argument/confrontation with me.....Im telling you now.....I will NOT RESPOND.

And for people who are going to take this the RIGHT way or indiffrent.....please understand....I am NOT TRYING TO OFFEND ANY OF YOU IN ANY WAY....MY screen name and signature are just that.....a screename and signature....You all know I post my plays,I am gracious in winning and losing,I compliment almost VERYONE I come in contact with,I respect the wishes of mods and even take crticism with humility.



GL people!


BTW--Love the flag Beers and sweat!

[stickbit]

right on lock!! excellent post! look forward to more winners.

[Personafied]

Nice post lock, you should know I dont have a problem with you or the word lock. Most people in baseball forum have psychological problems and will never win as much as you in such a short period, most of them spent 20 years gambling, and still in the hole!..So, of course they are going to envy you.

[MR MJ]

Thanks guys....My reply was for setting the record straight....not to cause dissension.

I will go about my buisness and try to win money for myself AND others.....thats my goal......bottom line.

Everything else besides this is out of my control as far as where people go with things and I will not partake in such conversations.

GL to all!

:thumbs:

[rjp]

Check out Atlanta UNDER. Lots of value there IMO. They're being given too much credit because of Vick!!

[bookiekilla]

rjp...don't know about the atlanta under....i think the new coaching staff in atlanta with the new system is really gonna help Vick, Dunn, and Price in atlanta....i think the falcons have a great shot in being one of the most improved teams from last year....i'm thinking 10-6 and the playoffs for atlanta...

[rjp]

BK, I believe it's going to take a year for that to happen. It's going to take time for things to gel in Atlanta. New coach, new system, new players... this won't be a quick turn-around to the playoffs. I see a 7-9 season at best for Atlanta.

[rjp]

The others I like:

Arizona O5.5 - No reason this team can't win 6 games... or even go 7-9 like Atlanta.

Carolina O8.5 - The only way I see Carolina having a 0.500 or below season is if they have lots of injuries. They have depth at QB, RB, and WR and they have a very solid defense.

Cincinnati O7.5 - I believe there's a good chance Cinci will make the playoffs this year and to do this they'll have to surely have more than 7 wins.

Jacksonville O7.5 - Another team I feel has a good shot of making the playoffs.

[Baseballer]

RJp-crack cocaine fries the brain...lol are you nuts brotheron? Atlanta Under in wins? If Mike Vick is on the field you better damn bet he will have them over 9 wins. I guarndamtee it. Bar-Non Ive seen dat boy play against Carolina last year and he beat them with virtually no other players. The Falcons will get it done this year. They may win it all.

ProFootballWeekly picks Atlanta to finish 6-10. HORSESHIT!

[rjp]

Baseballer, believe the hype if you want. Just another way for the man to exploit the public.

Just my opinion of course. 6-10 sounds about right. I was thinking 7-9 myself... at best.

[MR MJ]

you go rjp!

[Stifler's Mom]

Just 2 comments..

#1. I am from the Philly area and the Eagles are NEVER going to hoist the Lobardi trophy....EVER. Sorry to all you Eagles fans, but all Philly teams are cursed.

#2. Personafied, you are an idiot. I wasn't sure what to make of you over in the MLB forum, but now it's obvious that you are a complete jackass. If you think for one minute that anyone in the MLB forum "envies" or is "jealous" of Mr Lock, or anyone else that posts there for that matter, you're one dumb fucker.

Sorry Mr Lock, didn't really mean to single you out there....

AND...

O yeah....i'm a big follower of the AFC East and i think the Jets will have no more than 6 or 7 wins this year, but anything can happen in the NFL...so i wish you luck.

Other than that, good luck with your futures plays MR LOCK.

RJP....I LOVE the Cards to have over 5.5 wins this year too with Denny Green now at the helm :yeah:

[MR MJ]

Dont be so quick to downplay the Eagles Stflers.....they added THE key component to the team they have DYING to get...a TOP WR.

You forget....Mcnabb has gotten hurt right at the time the were ready to go on to a SB run the last 2 years....if hes healthy ALL YEAR....they are dangerous and will be a serious threat.....so dont count them out.....this may be their last chance,but TO may be the piece they need to push them over the top.

and the Jets...bro...watch out....that offense will be tough to stop with a healthy Pennington....dont be surprised if they win the divsion....the team is ready to take a rise to the top.


and thanks for the good luck reply stifler.....to you as well.

and that Cards OVER play looks good!

[MR MJ]

Dallas picks up E George....making my Under 9 on Dallas play...a little more tighter.

At worst.....I may get a push....no way Dallas wins 10+ games overall with that division they are in(Philly,Wash and NYG).

[Personafied]

[
#2. Personafied, you are an idiot. I wasn't sure what to make of you over in the MLB forum, but now it's obvious that you are a complete jackass. If you think for one minute that anyone in the MLB forum "envies" or is "jealous" of Mr Lock, or anyone else that posts there for that matter, you're one dumb fucker.


Again with the jackass??? Mwahahaha.....if you really think about why your mad....i highly doubt its me.

[MR MJ]

Quincy Carter go cut by BIG D.....making my Under Dallas play almost a shoo in to go under.

Will see.....

[silkypicks]

gl lock
first chance i had to read your post explaining your position
i look at post to get info so that i can make some$ and play the right side
i go big on football
small on baseball and hoops
so lets all have a good football season and make some $
hope you keep your running football record for us
i'll be tracking you
by the way eagles are up to 11 in vegas now
go birds
gl
:thumbs:

[MR MJ]

WOW silky....its 11....whew!....hope Mcnabb stays helathy.


and I will keep a record for my football as well.