Kevin
06-15-2004, 02:11 PM
The Fantasy Hot Sheet
Fantasy Edge - Baseball
June 15, 2004
By Rick Wilton
OF-Corey Patterson-CHC
Some of Patterson's development was curtailed by the ACL injury that cost him
half of the 2003 season. What we saw before the injury last year was a
developing hitter, one who would go with the pitch from time to time and not
attempt to hit a home run with every fastball he saw. He hit .333 in May 2003
with a .910 OPS. Progress was being made at that point. Patterson slumped some
in June 2003 due mostly to an increase in strikeouts before the knee injury
ended his season in July. Now, a third of the way through this year, we
haven't seen much of the May 2003 version of Patterson.
In his defense, the torn left ACL and meniscus injury still wasn't 100% healed
by the start of the season. But he's close enough in recent weeks that we
should have seen some spark by now; or at that's the prevailing thought in the
Chicago area. But maybe the knee has altered his swing? Last season he
recorded a 1.37 GB/FB ratio before going down with the knee injury. This year
his GB/FB is 0.86, suggesting that his swing has been altered or he's having
trouble shifting his weight due to the knee. Patterson is generating a lot
more flyballs, and that supports earlier reports that his swing wasn't as
level as it was last season. So what's in store for this 24-year-old? Some
rumors hint that the Cubs would deal him for Carlos Beltran or a veteran
center fielder because they supposedly can't wait for him to develop. But
unless they can get a player they'll have past the 2004 season, they won't
pull the trigger. More likely, he'll continue with the Cubs with the hope that
he shows improvement in the coming weeks, especially in strikezone judgment.
But that is not a given.
RHP-Roy Oswalt-HOU
I got an email from a reader asking if Oswalt was OK. I hadn't heard anything
but decided to dig a little bit to see if I missed something. In Oswalt's last
five outings, only one was very good. In his last 29 2/3 innings, he's allowed
39 hits, walked just four, and struck out 25. His ERA in that stretch was 4.85
and his Ratio was 1.45. These aren't numbers you'd expect from Oswalt but it's
far from a meltdown. So I looked into his outings just before he suffered a
groin muscle injury in the past and found a couple of possible signals. First,
when Oswalt allows more hits than innings pitched it could be a sign of
trouble. He's done so in three of his last five starts, and in the other
outing he allowed the same amount of hits as innings pitched. Oswalt is at his
best when he can stride fully to the plate. It allows him to keep the ball
down in the strikezone. In outings just before groin setbacks in the past, we
saw a drop in the amount of groundballs allowed. That could mean he was having
difficulty making his full stride (and keeping the ball down in the
strikezone). Other than his 11 groundball, five flyball outing on May 20,
Oswalt's GB/FB has dropped close to 1.00. Maybe his stride is off a bit, maybe
it isn't. I haven't seen conclusive evidence to declare an Oswalt injury but I
will watch it closely. A few more bad outings and a lot more flyballs in the
next few starts could point to physical problems.
RHP-Brett Myers-PHI
After reported mechanical problems in April (7.36 ERA, .321 OPP BA), Myers
turned it around in May with a 2.97 ERA (OPP BA .255) due to a more consistent
release point and more strikes. Now Myers has reverted to his April form in
June. The 5.27 ERA (.283 OPP. BA) in June has frustrated Myers and his
manager. A third of the way into the 2004 season, we've seen no improvement
over last year, Myers' first full year in the majors. Some would suggest he's
even regressed a bit in 2004. The reason? He's yet to adjust to hitters and
their weaknesses. It doesn't make a difference what side of the plate we're
talking about, he struggles against both. By now he should have started to
show some success against righthanders. He hasn't. As long as he fails to
develop a pitching strength and allows a lot of hits (77 in 64 2/3 innings of
work), this is about as good as he'll get. If Meyers can improve his K/9 rate
to over 7.00 and improve the command of his pitches, plus cut the hits, then
we'll see marked improvement. Until then it's more of the same.
2B-Jeff Kent-HOU
When Kent came over from the Giants and a notorious pitcher's ballpark, it was
assumed that he would thrive in Houston. However, he's lost some of his home
run power in recent years. He fractured his left wrist in that now infamous
"car wash" incident two years ago March. He came back and recorded a 16.8
HR/AB rate in his final season with the Giants, but that dropped to 22.9 AB/HR
in his first year with the Giants, which is nearly idential to his 23.4 AB/HR
this season. His battled continued soreness in his left wrist last season,
though by now he shouldn't be feeling any effects of the old injury. It's
great that he had a recent 25-game hitting streak, but that hides the lack of
power production. Since moving on to Houston, his OPS should have gone over
.900 at the minimum. It hasn't. Last year his OPS was .860, and this season
he's currently at .893. If you are waiting for an OPS over .950 and a 30-plus
home run season you'll be waiting a long time.
3B-Mike Lowell-FLA
It's hard to imagine that a player on pace to bat .301, hit 36 homers and
drive in 100 is slumping and underachieving. But that is the word in South
Florida. That's because Lowell is batting just .136 in June with zero home
runs and four RBI. On May 31st his OPS was 1.096. Now it's in the 900s. Why
the sharp dive in production? The right elbow that has caused him so much
trouble in the past isn't causing any problem, at least that's what our
Florida source believes. Lowell's history provides us with the answer. Since
2002, he has three months where he just plain stunk the joint up. He recorded
three different months with an OPS that ranged from .462-.657. Lowell is a
streaky hitter. When he's good, he's very good. When he's bad, well, he's just
like he is right now. If his current owner is ready to bail this is a great
time to grab him before the next hot streak arrives. That will be no later
than early July.
RHP-Matt Clement-CHC
This season is turning out to be Matt Clement's best, and it came at a great
time given the injuries to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. His K/9 rate of 9.46 is
the best (just barely) of his career. Opposing batters are managing just a
.601 OPS against him, which is also the best of Clement's career. He's also on
pace to allow just 16 HRs this season. This could be his career year and there
are lots of signs that it is. But one career problem is still hanging around,
and there is nothing he can do about it. The Cubs are scoring just 4.16 runs
per Clement start. That leaves him with very little room for error. Last
season his run support was 4.20. In 2002, Chicago provided him with 5.31 runs.
If the Cubs can push the amount of run support they give him up to 5.00 he
would see a nice surge in wins, even if the Cubs bullpen struggled a bit.
MASH Report
RHP-Curt Schilling-BOS
After we went to press on the Schilling ankle injury last week, more
information came to light. The Red Sox have done two MRIs on his ailing right
ankle. The medical staff noticed increased inflammation, to the point where
surgery is now a viable option. The MRI showed some fluid buildup in the area
of the bone bruise. Schilling will be handled as follows. He's expected to
make his next start on Wednesday. They'll give him his injection before the
start to help lessen the pain and discomfort. The next day he'll have an MRI
to check the status of the ankle joint. If it has worsened since the last MRI,
Schilling is likely to need surgery. That's because the fluid will have built
up over his last three starts. The surgery would keep him out 15 days to a
month. If by chance (a long shot according to some sources in Boston) it
improves, then he'll avoid surgery and the DL, at least temporarily.
OF-Jason Bay-PIT
Bay has been back a month and a week, and the Pirates have had to back off
playing him every day. From May 15-31 he played in every game. Even though he
was hitting .300 at the start of June, Bay's surgically-repaired shoulder
still wasn't 100%. They backed off and have given him more time off. That's
because he's still lacking in shoulder strength. If you look at his numbers,
they illustrate the problem. In May, his first month back, Bay recorded a .893
OPS, driven mainly by his ability to get on base. In June, his OPS is .571,
and his batting average has dropped almost 30 points. We could interpret those
numbers to say he's losing strength with his shoulder. The Bucs just say they
are being cautious, which could be the case. Still, I'd lean on the idea that
Bay's shoulder is far from 100% and playing all those games early on was too
much for him, and the Pirates are now backpedaling. At this rate, Bay won't
return to his pre-injury form until sometime in the second half.
RHP-Joe Borowski-CHC
As we reported in the last newsletter, Borowski has a tear in his rotator
cuff. What we didn't know at the time was if he also had labrum damage. The
MRI done on the shoulder was negative. That good news keeps the scheduled
stint on the disabled list to four-to-six weeks. Look for Borowski, barring
any setbacks, to return after the All-Star break.
RHP-Carlos Zambrano-CHC
After his last start, Zambrano admitted that he had some soreness in his
pitching shoulder. He was seen rubbing his right shoulder during the start.
Zambrano says he won't miss his next start. The Cubs don't believe it is
serious enough to even delay his latest start. Is there reason to be
concerned? Any time a pitcher has a sore shoulder it raises some eyebrows.
Zambrano is ranked 18th in the National League in innings pitched. He has one
start with 122 pitches and one with 121. His 2004 workload isn't the problem.
Last season he finished seventh in the National League with 3,413 pitches
thrown. If that workload was a problem he wouldn't be pitching lights out
right now. The available evidence doesn't give us a reason to worry. The Hot
Sheet believes it's just minor soreness and nothing to worry about.
3B-Eric Chavez-OAK
The latest X-rays regarding Chavez's fractured right hand reveals that he is
healing normally and on time. Once the cast comes off for good he can begin to
push his rehab work but not right now. Chavez believes he can be back in the
A's lineup June 21-23. The medical staff says no way. First, his wrist and
hand won't be strong enough. Second, the A's aren't going to risk further
injury to their franchise hitter. Chavez owners shouldn't plan on a return
until early in July. If he suffers any kind of setback, a return after the
break would be likely.
Short Hops
LHP-Andy Pettitte-HOU
According to late reports out of Houston, Pettitte is over one hurdle. He's
able to complete long toss without pain in his elbow. He's expected to throw a
simulated game on Monday. If he passes that test the Astros will be better
prepared to set a rehab schedule as to when he'll return. Because he's lost
some arm strength Houston will likely send him out for a rehab start. Word is
he could be activated inside of a week.
OF-Alex Escobar-CLE
You have to wonder if Escobar is beginning to fall out of favor with the front
office. After hitting one home run in 152 at-bats and batting just .211 he was
demoted this weekend. Earlier this year we took a look at Escobar and some of
his secondary numbers. Yes, we did see some improvement in his ability to coax
a walk and not be such a free- swinger. But the inability to hit for power or
average doomed him and he was demoted. How long until prospects Jason Cooper
and Nathan Panther move past Escobar if he continues to struggle? It won't be
this year but early next year with solid 2004 seasons. Escobar owners might
want to consider moving him if another owner thinks his upside is still huge.
Fantasy Edge - Baseball
June 15, 2004
By Rick Wilton
OF-Corey Patterson-CHC
Some of Patterson's development was curtailed by the ACL injury that cost him
half of the 2003 season. What we saw before the injury last year was a
developing hitter, one who would go with the pitch from time to time and not
attempt to hit a home run with every fastball he saw. He hit .333 in May 2003
with a .910 OPS. Progress was being made at that point. Patterson slumped some
in June 2003 due mostly to an increase in strikeouts before the knee injury
ended his season in July. Now, a third of the way through this year, we
haven't seen much of the May 2003 version of Patterson.
In his defense, the torn left ACL and meniscus injury still wasn't 100% healed
by the start of the season. But he's close enough in recent weeks that we
should have seen some spark by now; or at that's the prevailing thought in the
Chicago area. But maybe the knee has altered his swing? Last season he
recorded a 1.37 GB/FB ratio before going down with the knee injury. This year
his GB/FB is 0.86, suggesting that his swing has been altered or he's having
trouble shifting his weight due to the knee. Patterson is generating a lot
more flyballs, and that supports earlier reports that his swing wasn't as
level as it was last season. So what's in store for this 24-year-old? Some
rumors hint that the Cubs would deal him for Carlos Beltran or a veteran
center fielder because they supposedly can't wait for him to develop. But
unless they can get a player they'll have past the 2004 season, they won't
pull the trigger. More likely, he'll continue with the Cubs with the hope that
he shows improvement in the coming weeks, especially in strikezone judgment.
But that is not a given.
RHP-Roy Oswalt-HOU
I got an email from a reader asking if Oswalt was OK. I hadn't heard anything
but decided to dig a little bit to see if I missed something. In Oswalt's last
five outings, only one was very good. In his last 29 2/3 innings, he's allowed
39 hits, walked just four, and struck out 25. His ERA in that stretch was 4.85
and his Ratio was 1.45. These aren't numbers you'd expect from Oswalt but it's
far from a meltdown. So I looked into his outings just before he suffered a
groin muscle injury in the past and found a couple of possible signals. First,
when Oswalt allows more hits than innings pitched it could be a sign of
trouble. He's done so in three of his last five starts, and in the other
outing he allowed the same amount of hits as innings pitched. Oswalt is at his
best when he can stride fully to the plate. It allows him to keep the ball
down in the strikezone. In outings just before groin setbacks in the past, we
saw a drop in the amount of groundballs allowed. That could mean he was having
difficulty making his full stride (and keeping the ball down in the
strikezone). Other than his 11 groundball, five flyball outing on May 20,
Oswalt's GB/FB has dropped close to 1.00. Maybe his stride is off a bit, maybe
it isn't. I haven't seen conclusive evidence to declare an Oswalt injury but I
will watch it closely. A few more bad outings and a lot more flyballs in the
next few starts could point to physical problems.
RHP-Brett Myers-PHI
After reported mechanical problems in April (7.36 ERA, .321 OPP BA), Myers
turned it around in May with a 2.97 ERA (OPP BA .255) due to a more consistent
release point and more strikes. Now Myers has reverted to his April form in
June. The 5.27 ERA (.283 OPP. BA) in June has frustrated Myers and his
manager. A third of the way into the 2004 season, we've seen no improvement
over last year, Myers' first full year in the majors. Some would suggest he's
even regressed a bit in 2004. The reason? He's yet to adjust to hitters and
their weaknesses. It doesn't make a difference what side of the plate we're
talking about, he struggles against both. By now he should have started to
show some success against righthanders. He hasn't. As long as he fails to
develop a pitching strength and allows a lot of hits (77 in 64 2/3 innings of
work), this is about as good as he'll get. If Meyers can improve his K/9 rate
to over 7.00 and improve the command of his pitches, plus cut the hits, then
we'll see marked improvement. Until then it's more of the same.
2B-Jeff Kent-HOU
When Kent came over from the Giants and a notorious pitcher's ballpark, it was
assumed that he would thrive in Houston. However, he's lost some of his home
run power in recent years. He fractured his left wrist in that now infamous
"car wash" incident two years ago March. He came back and recorded a 16.8
HR/AB rate in his final season with the Giants, but that dropped to 22.9 AB/HR
in his first year with the Giants, which is nearly idential to his 23.4 AB/HR
this season. His battled continued soreness in his left wrist last season,
though by now he shouldn't be feeling any effects of the old injury. It's
great that he had a recent 25-game hitting streak, but that hides the lack of
power production. Since moving on to Houston, his OPS should have gone over
.900 at the minimum. It hasn't. Last year his OPS was .860, and this season
he's currently at .893. If you are waiting for an OPS over .950 and a 30-plus
home run season you'll be waiting a long time.
3B-Mike Lowell-FLA
It's hard to imagine that a player on pace to bat .301, hit 36 homers and
drive in 100 is slumping and underachieving. But that is the word in South
Florida. That's because Lowell is batting just .136 in June with zero home
runs and four RBI. On May 31st his OPS was 1.096. Now it's in the 900s. Why
the sharp dive in production? The right elbow that has caused him so much
trouble in the past isn't causing any problem, at least that's what our
Florida source believes. Lowell's history provides us with the answer. Since
2002, he has three months where he just plain stunk the joint up. He recorded
three different months with an OPS that ranged from .462-.657. Lowell is a
streaky hitter. When he's good, he's very good. When he's bad, well, he's just
like he is right now. If his current owner is ready to bail this is a great
time to grab him before the next hot streak arrives. That will be no later
than early July.
RHP-Matt Clement-CHC
This season is turning out to be Matt Clement's best, and it came at a great
time given the injuries to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. His K/9 rate of 9.46 is
the best (just barely) of his career. Opposing batters are managing just a
.601 OPS against him, which is also the best of Clement's career. He's also on
pace to allow just 16 HRs this season. This could be his career year and there
are lots of signs that it is. But one career problem is still hanging around,
and there is nothing he can do about it. The Cubs are scoring just 4.16 runs
per Clement start. That leaves him with very little room for error. Last
season his run support was 4.20. In 2002, Chicago provided him with 5.31 runs.
If the Cubs can push the amount of run support they give him up to 5.00 he
would see a nice surge in wins, even if the Cubs bullpen struggled a bit.
MASH Report
RHP-Curt Schilling-BOS
After we went to press on the Schilling ankle injury last week, more
information came to light. The Red Sox have done two MRIs on his ailing right
ankle. The medical staff noticed increased inflammation, to the point where
surgery is now a viable option. The MRI showed some fluid buildup in the area
of the bone bruise. Schilling will be handled as follows. He's expected to
make his next start on Wednesday. They'll give him his injection before the
start to help lessen the pain and discomfort. The next day he'll have an MRI
to check the status of the ankle joint. If it has worsened since the last MRI,
Schilling is likely to need surgery. That's because the fluid will have built
up over his last three starts. The surgery would keep him out 15 days to a
month. If by chance (a long shot according to some sources in Boston) it
improves, then he'll avoid surgery and the DL, at least temporarily.
OF-Jason Bay-PIT
Bay has been back a month and a week, and the Pirates have had to back off
playing him every day. From May 15-31 he played in every game. Even though he
was hitting .300 at the start of June, Bay's surgically-repaired shoulder
still wasn't 100%. They backed off and have given him more time off. That's
because he's still lacking in shoulder strength. If you look at his numbers,
they illustrate the problem. In May, his first month back, Bay recorded a .893
OPS, driven mainly by his ability to get on base. In June, his OPS is .571,
and his batting average has dropped almost 30 points. We could interpret those
numbers to say he's losing strength with his shoulder. The Bucs just say they
are being cautious, which could be the case. Still, I'd lean on the idea that
Bay's shoulder is far from 100% and playing all those games early on was too
much for him, and the Pirates are now backpedaling. At this rate, Bay won't
return to his pre-injury form until sometime in the second half.
RHP-Joe Borowski-CHC
As we reported in the last newsletter, Borowski has a tear in his rotator
cuff. What we didn't know at the time was if he also had labrum damage. The
MRI done on the shoulder was negative. That good news keeps the scheduled
stint on the disabled list to four-to-six weeks. Look for Borowski, barring
any setbacks, to return after the All-Star break.
RHP-Carlos Zambrano-CHC
After his last start, Zambrano admitted that he had some soreness in his
pitching shoulder. He was seen rubbing his right shoulder during the start.
Zambrano says he won't miss his next start. The Cubs don't believe it is
serious enough to even delay his latest start. Is there reason to be
concerned? Any time a pitcher has a sore shoulder it raises some eyebrows.
Zambrano is ranked 18th in the National League in innings pitched. He has one
start with 122 pitches and one with 121. His 2004 workload isn't the problem.
Last season he finished seventh in the National League with 3,413 pitches
thrown. If that workload was a problem he wouldn't be pitching lights out
right now. The available evidence doesn't give us a reason to worry. The Hot
Sheet believes it's just minor soreness and nothing to worry about.
3B-Eric Chavez-OAK
The latest X-rays regarding Chavez's fractured right hand reveals that he is
healing normally and on time. Once the cast comes off for good he can begin to
push his rehab work but not right now. Chavez believes he can be back in the
A's lineup June 21-23. The medical staff says no way. First, his wrist and
hand won't be strong enough. Second, the A's aren't going to risk further
injury to their franchise hitter. Chavez owners shouldn't plan on a return
until early in July. If he suffers any kind of setback, a return after the
break would be likely.
Short Hops
LHP-Andy Pettitte-HOU
According to late reports out of Houston, Pettitte is over one hurdle. He's
able to complete long toss without pain in his elbow. He's expected to throw a
simulated game on Monday. If he passes that test the Astros will be better
prepared to set a rehab schedule as to when he'll return. Because he's lost
some arm strength Houston will likely send him out for a rehab start. Word is
he could be activated inside of a week.
OF-Alex Escobar-CLE
You have to wonder if Escobar is beginning to fall out of favor with the front
office. After hitting one home run in 152 at-bats and batting just .211 he was
demoted this weekend. Earlier this year we took a look at Escobar and some of
his secondary numbers. Yes, we did see some improvement in his ability to coax
a walk and not be such a free- swinger. But the inability to hit for power or
average doomed him and he was demoted. How long until prospects Jason Cooper
and Nathan Panther move past Escobar if he continues to struggle? It won't be
this year but early next year with solid 2004 seasons. Escobar owners might
want to consider moving him if another owner thinks his upside is still huge.