U.S. Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Ernie Els to win 8.5/1 @ Pinnacle
‘The Big Easy’ is the perfect player for the U.S. Open: he earned his nickname not only for his swing, but also from his untroubled demeanour. And the U.S. Open is a test of patience. His links credentials are excellent with a win in the Open Championship in 2002 and three top-3 finishes in that event in the last four years and his scrambling abilities are not too bad either – he currently ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in this category. He looks good value at these odds to earn his third U.S. Open title.

Retief Goosen to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, BlueSq and Tote
Americans and South Africans have won 48 of the last 50 U.S. Opens and Goosen and Els have combined to win three of those for South Africa. This course is very different to the scene of his 2002 win, Southern Hills, but his links credentials are impressive enough. Aside from his record-breaking form around St Andrews in the Dunhill Cup, he has finished in the top-10 in the Open Championship in four of the last seven years. Coming off three top-11 finishes, he regaining confidence in his swing and deserves shorter odds.

Justin Rose to win 80/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Victor Chandler
Originally shot to prominence with a 4th place finish as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998 and in his debut in this event last year, he finished 5th. It is also only two months since he was leading the Masters after two rounds and while his 3rd round took him out of contention that week, he has played in four PGA Tour events since and can boast finishes of 7th, 5th and 4th. Definitely worth an each-way punt at that price.

[Stanley]

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Chris DiMarco to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ BetandWin [3pts]
Just a huge gulf between these two players and that is reflected in DiMarco's 9-1-0 h2h lead over Cejka in 2004. Total mismatch.

Jay Haas to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Ladbrokes [3pts]
And again. Haas has a 7-1-1 h2h lead over Faxon in 2004. Faxon's highest finish in the U.S. Open since 1981 has been 33rd; Haas has beaten that mark on many occasions, including 4th around this course in 1995.

Vijay Singh to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ BetandWin
Not such a huge gulf between these players, but a marked one nonetheless. Singh delivered in the matchups last week as his form improved as expected and he should continue in the same vein this week. It is very hard to win an event the week before a major and contend, so this should be Garcia's 5th U.S. Open and the 4th time that he ahs finished behind Singh.

Retief Goosen to beat Adam Scott -135 @ Pinnacle
Two missed cuts in two U.S. Opens tell a story for Scott. Last week he ranked 75th (of the 80 players that made the cut) in driving accuracy and 70th in greens in regulation. He will have to raise the standard of his game enormously if he is to make his first cut. Should be straightforward for the outright selection.

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -125 @ Paddy Power
By contrast, Perry has finished in the top-12 in his last three events, finished 3rd in this event last year and 8th around the links of Royal St. George's in the Open Championship last year. He has far more ability to control his game and could easily finish in the top-10 again this year.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -137 @ SkyBet
This has been a very good season for Cink, but he is still the player that Perry is. He trails him 3-7-0 h2h this year and his finished behind him in each of the last two U.S. Opens. Should provide stiffer opposition than Cink, but he is still not a top-10 player this week.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Jim Furyk -111 @ BetandWin [4.5pts]
They say 'beware the injured golfer', but surely not in this match. Furyk has only just announced that he will try to play this week as defending champion - he would play nine holes each practice round at Shinnecock Hills before deciding whether he is strong enough to play on Thursday. He played his first full 18 holes on Wednesday since the surgery in March to repair torn cartilage in his left wrist and is clearly not fit enough for a Tour event and especially not the U.S. Open. "I'm not fooling myself. I'm not fooling anybody else," Furyk said. "I haven't played tournament golf in six months. I'll be grinding it out." If he weren't defending champion, he would not be playing and he could easily not complete the first round. Jacobson has a real chance of winning this week. They don't come more straightforward that this.

[UteFan]

Stanley:

Of these four which do you feel has the best chance of finishing first, or highest?


Chad Campbell
Zach Johnson
Jeff Maggert
David Toms

Thanks for the help.

[tstarkey]

Chad Campbell IMO

[Stanley]

Campbell as well :wink:

[UteFan]

Thanks guys-so do the others hold ANY value with the very high odds they are receving??

[Stanley]

You'll get good odds on Maggert, but he'll suffer altitude sickness when near the top of the leaderboard; Toms is coming off a wrist injury and has won recently, but is still a shadow of ihs former self; while Johnson is a great prospect, but still raw and should not be suited to links golf.

Further matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Carlos Franco -139 @ William Hill
Ames missed the cut last week, but having finished in the top-7 in his five previous events, it is probably a good thing that his run came to an end before a major. He did finished behind Franco, but it was only the second time in ten common events in 2004. Franco won the U.S. qualifier at Woodmont, but is far too erratic a driver to compete in the event itself.

Kenny Perry to beat Stewart Cink -114 @ Centrebet
Jumped in last night at -137 so have no hesitation in jumping in again at even better odds and no ties lose!

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Tim Clark -139 @ William Hill
Opposing another player who finished top in his U.S. Open qualifier. Clark then finished in the top-10 in the Buick Classic in the same week so he should be tired heading into this event. Even if not, though, Jacobson is still the far superior player and could easily finish as Europe's top player.

Nick Price to beat Brad Faxon -110 @ SIA
As already stated, Faxon's best finish since he first played in the U.S. Open in 1981 has been 33rd; Price has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years. In terms of 2004, Faxon has finished ahead of Price only once in eight common events.

Nick Price to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Pinnacle
Leonard has a much better record in the U.S. Open - he has finished in the top-20 in four of the last five years - but he is not playing particularly well at the moment. He has secured just one top-20 finish since January and so it is not surprise that Price holds a 6-0-2 h2h lead over him in 2004.

Charles Howell to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Centrebet
Immelman has a poor record on the PGA Tour and missed the cut in his only start in this event. Howell, for his part, is on a run of eight events where he alternates between a top-15 finish and a missed cut - he is due a top-15 finish this week. He should not need it to extend his 9-2-0 h2h lifetime lead over Immelman on this Tour.

[Griswold]

Stanley,

What are your thoughts on Darren Clarke this week?

And how about Miguel Angel Jimenez at a whopping 100-1? He's not a long hitter but he hits a ton of fairways and greens.

Thanks for your insight!

[Stanley]

Further matchup plays (1.5pts):

Dudley Hart to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ WSEX
Always looking to oppose Baddeley. His best finish in the last three months (7 starts) is 50th, whereas Hart can count three top-4 finishes in that spell. Hart also has a much better U.S. Open, which is not surprising given Baddeley's wayward driving.

Brad Faxon to beat Michael Campbell -150 @ WSEX
Have opposed Faxon because of his poor U.S. Open record, but Campbell's prospects for this week are even worse. He has missed the last three cuts in the U.S. Open and on the PGA Tour, Faxon has a 13-1-0 h2h lead against him since the start of the 2003 season. This one should be decided by Friday night!

Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -195 @ Five Dimes
For all that Tiger has been in a slump, he still leads Garcia 6-3-0 h2h this year and that means parity at these odds. Add in the fact that Tiger did look like he was nearing his best last week, that Garcia has never finished ahead of him in four U.S. Opens and that Garcia is coming off a playoff win and there should be an edge even over these odds.

Tiger Woods to beat Phil Mickelson -145 @ WSEX
Shorter odds, but more straightforward, particularly if the wind blows. Lefty is not a good wind player and has yet to even finish in the top-10 in the Open Championship on the links courses there. These two players are still nowhere near parity - Tiger on a bad day is many times better than Mickelson on a bad day - and on a links course, Tiger should win almost every time.

[Stanley]

Hi Griswold,

This week's Open is unlike any other U.S. Open because of two factors - (i) Shinnecock Hills is a links course so players will need to be good in the wind and have a good variety of approach shots; and (ii) they have shaved the run-off areas around the greens as at Pinehurst in 1999 so whereas chipping was not important in previous Opens because deep rough encircled the greens, it will be this year.

So I don't think a simple fairways-and-greens player will win this week else I'd be backing Chad Campbell. But he is not a good enough scrambler and neither is Jimenez IMO. Nor is he particularly good on links courses. So I wouldn't touch 150/1 personally :wink:

However, Clarke is a different prospect altogether. Very good in the wind and on links courses and he is excellent around the greens. I wouldn't go below 40/1, but I do think this will be his best chance of winning this event.

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +34.50pts

Els 9th
Goosen 1st
Rose mc

Hugely impressive effort from Goosen ... he had everything against him today. It is difficult to lead an event with one round to play, but the USGA make the course virtually unplayable - they even needed to 20-minute break at one time as the 7th hole had become officially unplayable - so it was a monumental effort to defend a lead in those conditions. Plus he had to overcome an extremely vocal crowd who cheered when his shots went into trouble on the back nine. Hugely impressive win ... though I will admit to being a little biased today!

Matchups - Final update: 9-6-1; -0.27pts

DiMarco/Cejka WON by 16
Haas/Faxon WON by 6
Singh/Garcia LOST by 2
Goosen/Scott WON by 14
Perry/Scott LOST by 1
Perry/Cink LOST by 2
Jacobson/Furyk LOST by 8
Ames/Franco WON (Franco wd)
Jacobson/Clark LOST by 9
Price/Faxon WON by 3
Price/Leonard WON by 3
Howell/Immelman WON by 4
Hart/Baddeley WON by 7
Faxon/Campbell TIED (Push)
Woods/Garcia WON by 1
Woods/Mickelson LOST by 12

Won 60% of the plays, but only broke even thanks to a very unexpected loss on the Jacobson/Furyk play. Half of the losses were by two shot or less, but at least this was a very profitable event for other reasons!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-61; +18.22pts
Matchups: 81-72; -10.47pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 48-188; +111.77pts
Matchups: 224-184; +17.79pts

[Griswold]

Nice job Stanley!:gulp: