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Stanley
06-08-2004, 07:33 PM
Outright plays (1pt):

David Howell to win 14/1 e.w. available generally
Not too many players in this field which inspire confidence in the outright market, though few are playing as well as Howell and he does have a couple of prestigious Tour wins to his name. He won the Australian PGA Championship by seven shots in 1998 and the Dubai Desert Classic by four shots in 1999. More recently, he has finished in the top-10 in four of his last seven events and each time he has been in contention he has shot 70 or less in the final round. Hardly 'bottle' form so maybe this could be the week with such a weak field.

Stephen Gallacher to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Since the Tour left South Africa, Gallacher has played in eleven events and made the cut every time. With four top-10 finishes in that spell, he looks to be playing well enough to be competitive this week. So add in his 7th and 5th place finishes in 2001 and 2003 respectively and these odds look mighty generous!

Barry Lane to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Not really one for the outrights, but he has won this year already and he is returning to Gleneagles, the site (albeit on an adjacent course) of his first Tour win, the Scottish Open, in 1988. With just one missed cut since September he has been playing well outside his win in the British Masters and would have been expected to be no more than 33/1 this week.

Stanley
06-09-2004, 12:44 PM
Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

John Bickerton to beat Scott Drummond -110 @ SIA [2pts]
Will gladly oppose Drummond this week as he plays his first event since his win at the PGA Championship. He has made just four cuts in twelve starts this year and there should be a hangover from his win, He would never have been paired in a matchup with Bickerton beforehand. Siding with Bickerton who has made his last three cuts, including 5th last week, and has two year's experience of this course, including 8th last year. This will Drummond's debut at Gleneagles.

John Bickerton to beat Peter Lawrie -115 @ Intertops [3pts]
Lawrie has played this course once before, but he missed the cut on that occasion, shooting 82-78. He is in poor form, having missed three of his last six cuts and finishing no higher than 41st. In that time he has failed to finish ahead of Bickerton in any of their five common events.
(also available at Stan James)

Bradley Dredge to beat Peter Lawrie -146 @ Pinnacle
Siding with the better player who has finished ahead of Lawrie in four of their previous six common events. Dredge's form is not particularly good, but he is in a different class to Lawrie when his confidence returns and he did finish nine shots ahead of the Irishman last year.

Richard Green to beat Charl Schwartzel -154 @ Pinnacle
Big contrast between these two. Green hasn't missed a cut all year in 15 events, while Schwartzel has missed his last four. As far as course experience is concerned, Schwartzel has yet to play here, while Green has finished 11th and 10th in the last two years. Quite a contrast!

Anders Hansen to beat Nick O'Hern -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2pts]
Hansen has also made every cut this year and can even count eight top-15 finishes from those ten starts. That is very impressive form and though he has not yet played this course, he has been made the favourite by some books. O'Hern can't compete with that level of play, so it is no surprise that he has finished ahead of Hansen only once in their six common events this year. It is also clear that the compiler at Expekt is of the same opinion: he prices Hansen -196 in this matchup!
(also available at Expekt, Nordicbet and Five Dimes)

DocGambler
06-09-2004, 06:13 PM
How do you feel about Hansen vs David Howell???Also,
John Bickerton vs Barry Lane...I went to follow you with your picks but they didn t have those plays...Any help would be great..

Stanley
06-09-2004, 07:02 PM
The first one is too close to call IMO. Hansen is playing superb at the moment, but he has not played the course previously and so was overlooked for the outrights, unlike Howell.

I would side (only small though) with Lane over Bickerton. He has just been bossing this matchup over the last few months.

DocGambler
06-10-2004, 01:04 AM
thanks for the help...GL

Stanley
06-13-2004, 01:38 PM
Outrights -

Final update: 0-3; -3.00pts

A blank, but not without its chances. Howell had been 4th after two rounds, but played poorly thereafter, while Gallacher was as high as 3rd after 10 holes on Sunday, but he was over-par from that point onwards and lost his place-winning position.

Matchups -

Final update: 2-2-1; -2.40pts

Bickerton/Drummond LOST by 5
Bickerton/Lawrie TIED (Dead-heat)
Dredge/Lawrie WON by 2
Green/Schwartzel WON by 6
Hansen/O'Hern WON by 4

Very disappointing performance from Bickerton whose +9 after 36 holes was only enough to tie with Lawrie in the big play of the week and he lost to Drummond who finished a lowly 69th on the week.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 9-25; -4.04pts
Matchups: 26-25; -4.28pts