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Stanley
06-08-2004, 11:16 AM
Outright plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Difficult to keep him on the script! He finished 6th last week on a course on which he had one missed cut in the previous four years. That's a big improvement and his course form this week is a big improvement on last week: he finished in the top-10 on his last appearance. This is a course on which his biggest weakness, his driving, is unimportant and he really should finish in the top-7 for the sixth consecutive time.

Fredrik Jacobson to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
I can't see why his price is so high. He has been in great form for the past three months and is fully living up to the potential he showed when finishing 5th in the U.S. Open last year and winning three times on the European Tour. He played in this event last year so he has course experience and 36th place was certainly a credible finish after his U.S. Open performance the previous week - his first event Stateside. He can play 3-woods and 2-irons off the tee to keep him in play and so avoid his biggest problem - wayward driving - and once he get to the greens there are few better on Tour. A winner-in-waiting.

Jay Haas to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Tempted to wait for Paddy Power's top-10 market to open, but it looks as though he will be no more than 6/1. He would still be value at these odds because it is course on which short-hitters and experienced players play particularly well. The young big-hitters have no advantage at Westchester as Haas showed when finishing 4th last year despite an opening 74. He gave up four shots to Kaye in that 1st round, but finished only three shots back. Provided he has the stamina to compete this week as well as the last two weeks, this looks a huge price given the course setup.

Stanley
06-09-2004, 06:28 PM
Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat Adam Scott -110 @ SIA
Straightforward choice. While Ames has been in superb form with six top-7 finishes in his last seven starts and finished 9th on his last visit to Westchester, Scott has missed three of his last four cuts, including rounds of 79 and 80 (twice). He also finished 14 shots behind Ames on the only occasion he played here.

Jay Haas to beat Shigeki Maruyama -114 @ Expekt
In their last five events, Haas has three top-10 finishes and no missed cuts; Maruyama has one top-10 finish and two missed cuts. It is therefore no surprise that Haas has finished ahead of Maruayama in each of their last four common events and should make it five this week.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -120 @ William Hill and Easybets [3pts]
I just think that Jimenez is completely overrated as a golfer. He had a torrid time when he last committed to the PGA Tour and his record on this course is not particularly impressive. I will always have Jacobson in this matchup. He also completes a trio of matchups in which the outright selection is backed again.
(also available at Nordicbet)

Kenny Perry to beat Loren Roberts -130 @ WSEX
Perry's big-hitting will be of little use around Westchester and he hasn't played here for a decade, but he is still a completely different class of player to the fading Roberts. Roberts has failed to finish ahead of Perry in any event since the Bob Hope Classic in January, can't see it happening this week despite the course.

Vijay Singh to beat David Toms -150 @ Five Dimes
One swallow and all that ... Toms still has a lot to prove if he is to be back in the top class of players on Tour. His record in this event is mixed at best, which three missed cuts in five starts and any fears that Vijay is golfed-out should be erased by looking at his form before the Masters. It showed a similar downturn after an incredible run, but started to improve considerably just before the Major. It should happen again this week.

Stanley
06-10-2004, 05:11 AM
Adding (1.5pts):

Kenny Perry to beat Chris DiMarco -134 @ Pinnacle
Opposing DiMarco who has never broken par on this course in his four previous visits - he missed the cut every time. Perry is coming off a top-10 finish in the Memorial and should easily make the cut.
(also available at Aces, Intertops, Sirbet, Five Dimes and Olympic)

Stanley
06-13-2004, 06:45 PM
Outrights -

Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts

Ames mc
Jacobson 8th
Haas mc

Infuriating! Jacobson was leading for most of the 2nd round until he took a 7 at the last hole. He was then for most of the 3rd round on the front nine, but then dropped five shots in seven holes when clear in the lead. He finished only four shots out of the playoff.

Matchups -

Final update: 4-1-1; +5.75pts

Ames/Scott LOST by 3
Haas/Maruyama TIED (Dead heat)
Jacobson/Jimenez WON by 15
Perry/Roberts WON by 2
Singh/Toms WON by 12
Singh/DiMarco WON by 3

Healthy profit on the matchups to more than cover the losses on the outrights. Was rather fortuitous that Roberts crumbled so badly when leading the event after three rounds. There was a 12-shot swing in the final round on that play!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 10-59; -16.28pts
Matchups: 72-66; -10.20pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 45-183; +63.70pts
Matchups: 210-175; +12.92pts