Fantasy Baseball Hotsheet

[Kevin]

The Fantasy Hot Sheet
Fantasy Edge - Baseball
May 20, 2004
By Rick Wilton

Early last year, Trevor Hoffman finally had surgery to shave off a small
portion of his right collar bone (clavicle) that was pinching his pitching
shoulder. Hoffman stated a while back that he had struggled with the malady
for some time. Little did we know how much it affected his pitching. He had
gone from a strikeout pitcher with a decent fastball to a total finesse type
by 2002. His best pitch has always been his changeup. The decline in the
velocity of his fastball in recent years hurt his effectiveness. His fastball
was in the low 80s and became nothing more than a pitch to push hitters off
the plate or go up out of the zone. Now, a year after the surgery, Hoffman has
seen a welcomed benefit - a nice jump in the speed of his fastball. It's all
the way back into the high 80s. Some veteran Padres observers believe it could
reach 90 MPH again by the middle of the season. This doesn't mean the fastball
now becomes his out pitch. It won't. But it does set up the changeup as well
as it did back in the late 1990s and 2000 before the arm woes took their toll.
The velocity separation between his fastball and changeup is the best it's
been in years. That makes him a much better pitcher, so much so that a
sub-2.00 ERA and 40 saves is a distinct possibility this season.

RHP-Tim Redding-HOU
The talented Redding was expected to step up this season. His April numbers
(10.22 ERA, 2.16 Ratio in 12 1/3 IP) were a huge disappointment to everyone
associated with the Astros. Now, in May, his monthly splits have showed some
improvement. Heading into Wednesday night's game, his May numbers were a 3.60
ERA and 1.40 Ratio. Last night's start was his best so far: no earned runs,
two walks and three hits in 6 2/3 innings. Is this the beginning of his
turnaround? Hardly. Even while he was pitching better in May, he was allowing
a .293 opponent BA. Even more revealing are the teams he pitched well against
in May: Cincinnati, Atlanta and Florida (twice). Those are all teams he had
very good success against last season. Until we see a much lower opponent BA
and some success against teams he's struggled with it's difficult to believe a
turnaround is in the works.

RHP-Brian Lawrence-SD
Entering his May 19th start, Lawrence was allowing opponents to hit .323 off
of him. Hitters from both sides of the plate are batting over .300 and his
Opp. OPS is .866! This spring and well into April, the velocity on his
fastball ranged from 82-86 MPH. Normally he's in the 89-91 MPH range. His
other problem was the break on his slider. It wasn't nearly as sharp this
season as it was in the past. The results haven't been pretty. During spring
training he allowed 49 hits in 22 innings. In April, his monthly ERA was 5.64
and his Ratio was 1.98. He was either hurt or really messed up mechanically.
In his previous start against the Reds (May 12) reports indicated his velocity
was back up to 90 MPH and the bite in his slider was back. In his last 12 IP,
he's allowed just four runs on 15 hits, with three walks and eight strikeouts.
In these two starts and during all of May, he's been making progress. Is he
over the hump? It's a bit too early to tell but we are seeing positive signs.
If he can get his GB/FB rate up close to 2.00 (it's 1.46 right now), reduce
his hits allowed to fewer than the number of innings he's pitched and get a
little better control of his walks, he should be on his way. I'm still
wondering, though, if the velocity improvement was mechanical or if he
regained some arm strength.

RHP-Rod Beck-SD
Last season when Beck was called up by the Padres after they revived his
career from the cornfields of Iowa, yours truly stated that Hot Sheet readers
should avoid Beck. There was too much working against a successful return. I
was wrong in 2003 but the concept was sound. The track record for closers very
late in their careers just wasn't good. Beck is close to returning to the
Padres and he won't be the closer. Still, his chances of succeeding as a setup
man aren't good. In a throwing session on May 16th, he was clocked at a
maximum of 78-80 MPH. Now, Beck has a ton of experience and "moxie," but even
that can't make up for pedestrian velocity. If you need to take a high-risk
flyer, Beck is that type of investment but it's highly unlikely he'll provide
any value in 2004. It's also worth noting that, if anything happened to Trevor
Hoffman, the Padres might turn to Akinori Otsuka, who has been lights out.

OF-Dave Roberts-LA
Up until early Wednesday, the Dodgers believed his strained right hamstring
had healed enough that he could have been activated maybe on Thursday but
definitely by the end of the weekend. But Roberts still can't run 100% forward
and lateral movement is still a problem. His situation was reassessed and he's
not likely to return until the middle of next week. How well will he do when
he is activated? Last season he had a similar injury. In his first ten games
back, he stole five bases. That's evidence he doesn't hold back when he is
coming off a leg injury.

MASH Report:

RHP-Jason Schmidt-SF
I didn't catch this game live (his one-hitter) so when I checked the box score
Tuesday night I couldn't believe my eyes. So much so that I checked three
sources! One hundred and forty-four pitches! This from a pitcher who is just
seven months removed from having surgery on the flexor tendon in his elbow!
This from a pitcher who has a long history of elbow problems! The Giants have
a bunch of problems and one start, albeit a masterful one-hitter, won't turn
their season around. But an injury to Schmidt, especially a serious one, ends
any hope they have of making a run in the very weak NL West. You would have
thought Dusty Baker was still in San Francisco, not Felipe Alou! Ok, how does
Schmidt pitch after high-pitch outings? Last year, his high pitch count was
127 and it occurred in back-to-back outings in June. Following that two-game
stretch, he did pitch well on June 30 against St. Louis. In 2002, he never
went over the 120-pitch level. The 144 pitches he threw on Tuesday were career
high. It's uncharted waters for Schmidt. Can he survive any injuries in the
short term? Yes, but one has to wonder if the back-to-back 127-pitch outings
last season contributed to the damage to his elbow (that was surgically
repaired last fall). Now, just seven months after having surgery, he throws
389 pitches (three starts: 122, 123 & 144 pitches) in 12 days. That is
ludicrous, especially with his injury history! I don't own Schmidt on any of
my fantasy teams. I also realize that top-tier starters are hard to come by,
but I'd be on the phone now attempting to trade him for a less risky pitcher.
It can be argued that this note should be in the analysis section and not the
MASH. I placed the note here because I believe very strongly this is where
future Schmidt news will end up.

OF-Garret Anderson-ANA
Anderson finally has a diagnosis, albeit a very general one: early
undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis, also known as UIA. Typically, this
type of arthritis doesn't occur in world-class athletes, and it reportedly
wasn't found in his first round of testing. We'll have more in the next
newsletter, but two important points right now. First, the key word is: early.
That indicates it's in early stages and it's much easier to treat. Second, the
mode of treatment, most likely, will be oral arthritis medication. In his
case, cortisone injections won't help because they work for only a very short
period of time. This is a life-long condition, hence the need for daily
medication. But that is also the downside. It takes time for the medication to
work its magic. Then, and only then, can Anderson begin workouts and then
baseball related activity. Now that they have the malady identified, he can be
treated. Based on this very early first report, its unlikely Anderson would
return before the All-Start break. Will it cost him the entire season? We are
in un-charted territory here and I don't have the answer right now.

OF-Mike Cameron-NYM
Over the past two weeks, Cameron has struggled at the plate. In his last 38
at-bats, he has just four hits (.105 BA) and 11 strikeouts. The reason? He has
torn ligaments in his right hand that make gripping the bat difficult. A hand
specialist examined his injured hand on Wednesday but no final decision was
made regarding going on the DL. Cameron suffered the injury on May 5 when he
jammed his right hand into Yorvit Torrealba's shin guard causing his right
pinky finger to bend backwards. Cameron can and has played with pain and
injuries, and he has indicated that he would like to play through the pain
rather than undergo surgery and/or go on the DL. But in this case, he would be
wise to go on the DL for a short stint and allow the injury to heal.

RHP-Jimmy Journell-STL
The injury-plagued career of the Cardinals former first round pick took
another negative turn this week. He's only pitched 2 2/3 innings this year due
to soreness in his pitching shoulder. The MRI done on his shoulder revealed a
torn labrum that requires surgery to repair. He'll have surgery similar to the
kind Chris Carpenter had just before he signed with the Cards. He's definitely
out for 2004, and the early part of 2005 is in doubt. St. Louis had become
concerned about his erratic mechanics and arm problems and moved him to the
bullpen last season. It didn't prevent another injury.

In 1999, Journell had Tommy John surgery before being drafted. In 2002,
shoulder weakness and tendinitis shut him down for a portion of the 2002
season. This once -promising pitching prospect continues to break down
physically and his future is very much in doubt.

DH-Tim Salmon-ANA
The Angels placed Salmon on the disabled list the first of May with
inflammation of his left knee and cartilage damage. It was the same ailment
that started to bother him in April so he's struggled with it for a while.
They tried to rest him a few days but that didn't clear up the inflammation
completely. That's when he finally landed on the DL. Though he's been on the
DL for just two and a half weeks, he's had a setback that required a cortisone
injection. He isn't able to resume rehab work until Thursday and this will
delay his return. The troublesome part is, after 19 days, the rest should have
cleared up most of his inflammation if this were a minor knee injury. The
cortisone injection on day 17 sends the message that a short rest/DL stint
isn't going to correct this problem. Salmon can play with pain and may be back
in less than two weeks, but it sure sounds like he'll need surgery either
during the season or over the winter.

Short Hops

1B-Darin Erstad-ANA
Erstad reviewed his injury-prone status in a meeting with some of the Angels
media the other day. He stated that he believed he did everything possible to
avoid another setback this season. His strength and conditioning program for
his legs was the best in the country. Stretching was a key component to his
daily workouts. Yet Erstad couldn't avoid the strained right hamstring. He
added that last year's injury was tendon related, a tough injury to recover
from because tendons don't get a lot of blood flow. His current injury, a
strain in two different areas, is muscle related. Muscle injuries heal much
faster than the type he had last year. That's why he believes he'll be back
sooner rather than later. This still doesn't answer what he can do to avoid
another hamstring injury.

OF-Sammy Sosa-CHC
Sosa suffered a strained ligament in his lower back this past weekend. It
happened with just a couple of sneezes. He was treated with an epidural
injection for the inflammation and pain. He was placed on the DL on Wednesday.
The medical staff won't have a good grip on how long he'll be out until early
next week when the inflammation goes down and he's able to resume physical
activity. While he's out, Dusty Baker could use a combination of Todd
Hollandsworth, Jose Macias and just called up rookie Jason Dubois. There is no
clear-cut replacement at this time.

3B-Adrian Beltre-LA
The career-best start by Beltre is in jeopardy due to a very sore left ankle.
He's wearing a foul ball guard to protect it at the plate. The real concern is
when he swings. He's unable to pivot on his left (front) ankle, causing him to
hop off the ankle as he completes the swing. The ailment has reduced some of
his range in the field and reduced his stride at the plate. While the injury
isn't likely to land him on the DL right now, it's the type that will linger
and reduce his output at the plate.

RHP-Brendan Donnelly-ANA
Donnelly threw on the side for the first time since May 9th. That's when he
cut short a rehab session after just six pitches when he felt pain in his
pitching elbow. He admitted that he was trying to come back way too fast. He
was rushing his rehab and altered his mechanics. His arm angle had dropped to
below three quarters, and that caused the extra stress on his pitching elbow.
Donnelly says he got the word and will back off some in his rehab. The Angels
have not set a rehab date yet but early-to-mid June is most likely.