Deutsche Bank - SAP Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Justin Rose to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, UKBetting and Totalbet
Unlike most European Tour players who concentrate on the PGA Tour rather than follow the Tour and its weaker events, Rose has been a success. He steadily improved with cuts made in all four starts before the Masters, but thereafter his form has been very impressive. He was the leader after 36 holes at Augusta and showed great character in his comeback 4th round and since then he has finished in the top-10 in two of three starts. This may be his first start in Europe of the season, but it is in an event in which he has finished in the top-5 in the last two seasons. Plenty of reasons to support Rose this week.

Angel Cabrera to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
With finishes of 4th and 2nd in his last two starts, there is also good reason to back Cabrera. He was also impressive on the PGA Tour with top-20 finishes in his last two events before the Masters and he has finished in the top-20 on each of the last two occasions that this course has been used. With a good number of the leading players opposable of the basis of having played on a different continent last week - Els, Harrington, Price, Cejka and Jimenez - this looks an open contest and 28/1 is a price that will not last for long.

Eduardo Romero to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five Dimes, SkyBet and Paddy Power
Discounting co-sanctioned events which are played on a different continent, Romero's ratio of top-5 finishes to starts makes these odds look very generous. In 2002, he finished in the top-5 in four of twelve starts, in 2003 it was two out of six and this year it is one out of two - he was 2nd in the British Masters two weeks ago. It is not that his course form is poor as he has finished in the top-25 on each of the last two occasions that this course has been used. So I'll gladly take these odds on the European Tour's equivalent of Jay Haas.

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Michael Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Campbell has simply been disappointing since the Tour moved to the Northern Hemisphere. He has not had a top-10 finish since the Heineken Classic in Australia three months ago. In this form, he is no match for Cabrera.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Paul Casey to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
Opposing Harrington not just because he played and finished a lowly 60th in China at the weekend, but also because he played injured. His course form might be better than Casey's, but he looks very unlikely to secure the top-10 he will need to beat Casey this time around.

Ernie Els to beat Darren Clarke -170 @ Five Dimes
At least coming from Texas, Els has the time zones working in his favour compared to Harrington. For these odds to be value, Els would have to win this matchup at least 63% of the time. It is enough that in their five common European Tour events over the past year, Els has finished ahead of Clarke every time.
(also available at Expekt, Centrebet and Pinnacle)

Anders Hansen to beat Lee Westwood -128 @ Five Dimes
Two consecutive top-10 finishes and a top-10 finish the last time that this course was used looks very impressive for Hansen; even more so when compared to Westwood who has not had a top-10 since the Dunhill Championship in South Africa in January and has missed the cut in two of three starts on this course (52nd on the other occasion).

Anders Hansen to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -111 @ Stan James [2pts]
Also opposing Gonzalez who must have used up his year's supply of luck - necessary because of his wild driving - when finishing 1st and 2nd in the two Spanish events last month. He missed the cut the following week and with Hansen having finished ahead of the Argentinean in all their common events this year, he will need to do much better to beat hansen this week.

Eduardo Romero to beat Ricardo Gonzalez -115 @ Intertops [2pts]
If Hansen can beat Gonzalez, then so should the outright selection, Eduardo Romero. After that burst of form last month, Gonzalez should be quickly returned to being, at best, the 3rd-best Argentinean player on the Tour.
(available widely)

Eduardo Romero to beat Lee Westwood -114 @ Expekt [2pts]
Logical consequence of the above. Romero is an outright selection tipped to go close again, while Westwood has continued to struggle with consistency. He looked to be in superb form in the 2nd round at the British Masters two weeks ago, but then his confidence looked very fragile over the weekend.

[Stanley]

Adding (1pt):

Adam Scott to beat Thomas Bjorn -111 @ BetandWin
Both missed their last two cuts - the BellSouth Classic and the Masters - but Scott still finished ahead on both occasions as he has done in their last four common events. Bjorn did finish 6th on this course two years ago, but otherwise has a dreadful record around St Leon Rot and doesn't look to be playing well enough to repeat that top-10 finish.

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00pts

Rose mc
Cabrera mc
Romero 39th

Promised to be a lot better once Romero completed the first two rounds in 69 to lie 8th after 36 holes. He was 13 shots worse over the weekend.

Matchups - Final update: 4-4-0; +1.09pts

Cabrera/Campbell LOST by 11
Casey/Harrington LOST by 18
Els/Clarke LOST by 1
Hansen/Westwood WON by 15
Hansen/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Gonzalez WON by 19
Romero/Westwood WON by 8
Scott/Bjorn LOST by 10

Blown over by the 2nd round winds! None of the eight plays had been behind after the 1st round, but they struggled in the windy afternoon conditions on Friday. Some large margins either way with only Els going close, though he couldn't buy a putt for three days. Looked promising, but in the end only profited from opposing Westwood and Gonzalez.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-19; -8.96pts
Matchups: 19-19; -1.06pts