Domer
05-15-2004, 12:18 PM
Like everyone else, I'd like to see another Triple Crown winner. The last beining Affirmed in 1978. A few horses have come close but have failed in the Belmont. This is due to 1 main factor...Fatigue.
Keep in mind that although these horses are listed as 3 year olds many if not all are actually 2 year olds. For those that do not know, all horses race or otherwise turn a year older January 1. As an example, a horse born 12-31-03 becomes a yearling or 1 year old 1-1-04. Now go back to what I said about fatigue. There are many prep races leading up to the Derby. This can be quite taxing for a young colt . Now enter the Kentucky Derby. All will be assigned 124 lbs. For most this is the highest weight ever assigned to them and no problem over a shorter distance but it wears a horse down over routes.
So where am I going with this? Value. Basically every horse that has failed in their quest for the Triple Crown has lost to a fresh set of legs. In this race these legs belong to Rock Hard Ten. This is a big colt who didn't even begin his carrer until he was a 3 year old. The only reason he didn't make it to the Derby was the fact that he didn't have enough life time earnings. This colt has talent beyond belief and will come charging from off pace.
My finish looks like this.
Lion Heart sets pace but falters in the stretch. Smarty Jones sets in around 3rd and makes a move down the lane. Rock Hard ten stalks about 4 wide around 5th or 6th and makes a huge run for home. Imperialism pulls up the rear about 10-12 lengths off the pace and closes but winds up short.
Final finish.
1 Rock Hard Ten
2 Smarty Jones
3 Lion Heart
4 Imperialism
GL
Keep in mind that although these horses are listed as 3 year olds many if not all are actually 2 year olds. For those that do not know, all horses race or otherwise turn a year older January 1. As an example, a horse born 12-31-03 becomes a yearling or 1 year old 1-1-04. Now go back to what I said about fatigue. There are many prep races leading up to the Derby. This can be quite taxing for a young colt . Now enter the Kentucky Derby. All will be assigned 124 lbs. For most this is the highest weight ever assigned to them and no problem over a shorter distance but it wears a horse down over routes.
So where am I going with this? Value. Basically every horse that has failed in their quest for the Triple Crown has lost to a fresh set of legs. In this race these legs belong to Rock Hard Ten. This is a big colt who didn't even begin his carrer until he was a 3 year old. The only reason he didn't make it to the Derby was the fact that he didn't have enough life time earnings. This colt has talent beyond belief and will come charging from off pace.
My finish looks like this.
Lion Heart sets pace but falters in the stretch. Smarty Jones sets in around 3rd and makes a move down the lane. Rock Hard ten stalks about 4 wide around 5th or 6th and makes a huge run for home. Imperialism pulls up the rear about 10-12 lengths off the pace and closes but winds up short.
Final finish.
1 Rock Hard Ten
2 Smarty Jones
3 Lion Heart
4 Imperialism
GL