Thursday PICK is HERE!!!

[smooth44]

before I get to my pick let's consider some facts....

SA is 37-8 SU/31-14 ATS at home; SA is 36-5 SU/28-13 ATS as a home fave; LA is 23-22 SU/15-30 ATS on road; LA is 3-11 SU/4-10 ATS as a DOG; LA is 1-11 SU/2-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG; if I stop here SA looks like an obvious pick but let's dig deeper; since 1996 when tied in a playoff series SA is 9-3 ATS and LA is 9-2 ATS; after playing in 3 or more consecutive OVERS SA is 2-4 ATS this yr, 7-19 ATS L3 yrs and 22-40 ATS since 1996; after playing in 3 or more consecutive OVERS LA is 3-2 ATS this yr, 21-18 ATS L3 yrs and 50-37 ATS since 1996; we all talk about importance of home court but ironically LA has a better ATS record when playing in SA (4-10 ATS at home and 6-7 ATS in SA) AND the ROAD team is 16-11 ATS in L27 meetings;

My pick
LA LAKERS +6

good luck!!!

34-27-1 playoff record (7-4 TOP PICKS)

[rjp]

:thumbs:

[skinsfan45]

have the same pick....GL smooth hope it cashed for you and me!!!

P.S. need your opinion on the o/u of this game...i'm leaning toward the under.

[Rothko1000]

Good luck, Smooth!!!

I've got Spurs...opposite of RJP, of course...I just see NO value in the Lakers tonight!

How has MLB been treating you????

[smooth44]

Originally posted by skinsfan45
have the same pick....GL smooth hope it cashed for you and me!!!

P.S. need your opinion on the o/u of this game...i'm leaning toward the under.
this total is perfect...I capped it everytime at 178-181....IF I was going to play it I would probably lean to the under ONLY because the game is in SA and they have a tendancy to play better D there! good luck!!

[Rothko1000]

The under in Spurs/Lakers game is solid!!!!

[smooth44]

Originally posted by Rothko1000
Good luck, Smooth!!!

I've got Spurs...opposite of RJP, of course...I just see NO value in the Lakers tonight!

How has MLB been treating you????
hate being on opposite sides but I think this is tougher than people think. I capped the game at least 10 times and actually had LA winning SU in 6 outcomes but we will see...

baseball has actually been profitable again with thanks to my "montreal system"....granted it's pretty boring only having one play every night but it's not about action it's about winning cash!

[damn_yankee_72]

well one of us is gonna win ! lol

maybe if i buy a point down and you buy a point up , we can both win tonight ?



best of luck everyone !

[Baseballer]

Smooth-
Im feeling Lakers, but I think sometimes you have to throw out all the spread stats and records and just go with your gut. Thats how I picked the Miami Heat Last night. Im going to say that pyschologically the La Lakers now have a huge advantage going into SA. Phil Jackson has his show boats ready to ball like they have never before. They have the greatest force on the court in Shaq, and the way Kobe is playing it is really hard to overlook them. I dont think I can put my wallet on Turkolglu and Nesterovic. Going to have to take the greatest show in the world.

Going with
Lakers +6 3 units
Lakers ML 2 units

GL SMOOTH

[smooth44]

thanks baseballer and good luck to you! I am eyeing up the ML also and will probably hit it by game time!!

[fullblitz]

I think home crowd is so underrated in playoffs. So far, it's proved that home crowd can really make an inferior team plays like a superior one & vice versa. To me, home crowd is like 6th man out there for a home team. And I think if SA is to win this game, they will win by the same margin LAL won against SA L2 at home. Just my $.02. GLTA.

[damn_yankee_72]

are you buying a point to get + 6 ?

[smooth44]

Originally posted by damn_yankee_72
are you buying a point to get + 6 ?
yep!

[rjp]

I think wiseguys are on SA tonight.

[smooth44]

Originally posted by rjp
I think wiseguys are on SA tonight.
I think you're right but I still feel pretty good about my pick!

[pointer]

i think lakers will cover..but spurs will win

[rjp]

Originally posted by smooth44
I think you're right but I still feel pretty good about my pick! Me too!! Let's nail it.

[DWD14]

Every time i bet the Lakers they lose, especially on the road. I think that home court for the spurs is the difference even though that sounds like a broken record. Lakers on the road are horrible. Duncan and Parker are coming off bad games, they should be able to bounce back.
Best of Luck anyhow!!!!
:thumbs:

[smooth44]

I fvckin' hate the Lakers and hate betting on them even more....but I have call it the way I see it! good luck!

[smooth44]

Originally posted by rjp
I think wiseguys are on SA tonight.
not sure now rjp.......some strange movement since your post.....line was 5 now 4.5 and yet public rate flat to slightly higher on SA.....

[nohomer]

my bookie have it at spur -4.5 179.5

what u guys think??? still laker or spur??
hurry, almost tip off.!!

[DWD14]

If the line is that low take the Spurs. I wouldnt take the Lakers with the line so low now. You could have gotten good value earlier, now it is working against the lakers.

[smooth44]

based on recent line movement I like LA more now.....good luck on whatever you play!

[rjp]

Wiseguys were definately on San Antonio. I believe the line moving to 4.5 was an isolated case as I only saw it at 4.5 in one place.

Further proves they aren't always so wise. :thumbs:

[Baseballer]

Derek Fisher too the rescue. Smooth we hit this one. Lets keep it going!!

[BillyBarooooooo]

Wise guys on SA lol

About time you picked a winning dog smooth about time!!!!:thumbs:

[smooth44]

How big was that final shot by Fisher???? For me, it was the difference in cashing in big or basically breaking even!! I don't normally hit the ML so hard but last night I couldn't resist and I thought I made a big mistake until.......FINALLY a bounce goes my way!! congrats to all winners.....a couple of interesting matchups tonight and will be back!! Also, need to correct my playoff record....I have to add a loss for my 2nd half pick I posted 2 nights ago...I never was able to get the wager in because game already tipped off but I did post it.....so current record now stands at

36-28-1 playoff record (7-4 TOP PICKS)

[Domer]

Nice play fella's. Wish I could say the same for myself.:thumbs:

[Baseballer]

Smooth it was the same way for me I was actually going to be down for the night if Fish doesnt hit that instead I made some money. I guess my bet on SA to win it all is worthless now. I will have to add some on LA next series. Smooth tonight I have a strange feeling that SAC town may get er done. Im going to look at some things and get back to you. Lets get one again tonight.