Byron Nelson Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Ernie Els to win 10/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not a good sight when four players are at single figure odds for a PGA Tour event, but at Stan James (and Ladbrokes) have pushed Els out to 10s. I'll bite at that price. He was 4th last time he played here, holds the course record of 61 around Cottonwood Valley and has finished 2nd in the Masters and 3rd in the Heritage in his last two starts. He is edging very close to win #3 of the year.

Scott Verplank to win 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Not exactly optimistic that the next two selections are capable of winning against the top four players in the world, but they have both got a good record in this event. Verplank has finished in the top-four in two of the last three years here and while his form has dipped in the last month, he could certainly sneak a place finish in his native State. Would prefer the place-only odds, but 15/2 is rather skimpy when 50/1 e.w. is on offer.

Nick Price to finish in the top-five 11/1 @ SkyBet
Price retains his place as a selection after missing out on a place win last week solely because of a very poor first round. Even more than Verplank, he has an excellent record around these courses - top-15 in each of the last five years and he is the leading money winner in this event with $1.5 million. He is certainly capable of finish in the top-5 for the third time in four years.

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (3pts):

Kenny Perry to beat John Daly -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Still routinely opposing Daly who will either finish in the top-10 or the bottom-10 over the weekend if he makes it that far. He has failed to make the cut in his last three visits with a best finish of 29th in this event and that was over a decade ago. Perry may not be as entertaining, but he is a much more profitable to back.

Luke Donald to beat Joe Ogilvie -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Almost winning the HP Classic does not make Ogilvie a promising player on this Tour and reversion back to mean is expected. He trails Donald 2-6-0 h2h this year and has a poor record on this course. Donald should repeat his top-20 performance of last year.

John Huston to beat Mark Hensby -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]
Hensby has missed his last two cuts, he missed the cut on his only previous start in this event and he has finished ahead of Huston only once in the last three years. Just looks like a mismatch to me!

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts):

Jerry Kelly to beat Carlos Franco -111 @ SIA
Nick Price to beat Zach Johnson -130 @ Centrebet

[beermantm]

Kenny Perry to beat John Daly -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Still routinely opposing Daly who will either finish in the top-10 or the bottom-10 over the weekend if he makes it that far. He has failed to make the cut in his last three visits with a best finish of 29th in this event and that was over a decade ago. Perry may not be as entertaining, but he is a much more profitable to back


JD is my boy but the guy relies on his rists to make shots and sometimes that will fall into place but for the most part it will yeild disasterous results. Although tigers more compact swing ain't doin much either.

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -4.50pts

Els 7th
Verplank 14th
Price 7th

A blank, but anything but a poor effort by the selections. All three were in the top-five in the last hour of the event and Price had been as high as 2nd only to bogey the last hole and it proved to be the shot that took him out of the top-five places. So close.

Matchups - Final update: 3-2-0; -0.92pts

Perry/Daly LOST by 5
Donald/Ogilvie WON (Ogilvie wd)
Huston/Hensby LOST by 10
Kelly/Franco WON by 1
Price/Johnson WON by 6

Small loss on the matchups after a seven-shot swing in the Perry/Daly matchup on the final day. Kelly tried his best to get back to Franco, but thankfully fell just short.

PGA Tour ytd:
Outrights: 7-50; -24.35pts
Matchups: 58-60; -25.00pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 35-147; +76.79pts
Matchups: 174-147; +9.39pts