Michelob ULTRA Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Lorena Ochoa to win 28/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Siding with two of the players that finished a shot behind Grace Park in last year's event. Park may have been the longest-hitter last year, but this is not a particularly long course and Ochoa was able to excel on it. She comes into the event on the back of four top-10 finishes, which is better form than a year ago and should at least feature on the leaderboard this week.

Cristie Kerr to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Kerr did not feature on the leaderboard after a promising opening round last week. No disgrace in that as she had won the previous event on the Tour. Her form is almost as good as Ochoa's, though she does have that win, and she also finished 2nd last year so there is plenty of course for optimism.

Rosie Jones to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Jones was not such a high finisher last year - though she did finish in the top-20 - but at least she finished 2nd last week instead. Her form has been typically consistent and impressive this year, particularly after her 'announcement', and with length not really being a factor around Kingsmill, she could certainly claim the win that she looked like gaining last week.

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Rosie Jones to beat Michelle Wie -120 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
Opposing two teenage prodigies whose price seems to lie more with hype than golfing performance. Wie did finish 4th in the Nabisco Championship in March, but that was also the scene of her one other top-10 finish (2003) from 12 starts on the LPGA Tour. Jones has won four of their last five head-to-heads and is in excatly the right to do so again.
(also available at Expekt)

Mi Hyun Kim to beat Michelle Wie -111 @ Centrebet
With five top-10 finishes in six starts this season, Kim is also in the same sort of form to beat Wie. She is a strong favourite with the other two books.
(also available at Nordicbet and Stan James)

Lorena Ochoa to beat Aree Song -118 @ Centrebet [3pts]
It all turned a little sour for Song on the day after her birthday last week. Shooting 78 when leading an event coming into the final round can take some time to get over and probably moreso for an 18-year-old. Like Wie, she will be playing on this course for the first time and is opposed by a player in form (four straight top-10 finishes) and who played well on this course last year.

Michele Redman to beat Aree Song -105 @ Five Dimes
Will take this price on a player who has an advantage in terms of course experience and who has finished ahead of her opponent in each of the last three Tour events. A top-5 finish may be elusive for Redman, but she keeps finishing not too far from that mark.

Meg Mallon to beat Janice Moodie -111 @ Stan James
Just feel that Mallon is slowly getting her season started. After an indifferent start to 2004, she has finished 2nd and 19th in her last two events and could easily improve on her 12th place finish last year. Moodie finished six shots behind Mallon last year and looks some way short of her best form at the moment.

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +1.50pts

Ochoa 2nd
Kerr 6th
Jones 25th

Gutted! Ochoa and Kerr shared the lead with one round to play, but neither of them managed to break par in the final round. At least Ochoa did start brightly and looked to be in control of the event, but faded around the turn, while Pak shot 65 to win by two shots. Quite a contrast to Kerr who shot a four-over-par 75 to not even gain a place win.

Matchups - Final update: 4-1-0; +3.90pts

Jones/Wie LOST by 2
Kim/Wie WON by 3
Ochoa/Song WON by 25
Redman/Song WON by 16
Mallon/Moodie WON by 6

Another profitable week with the LPGA matchups. A good event overall, but still ruing what should have been in the outrights.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-17; -0.22pts
Matchups: 24-10; +30.35pts