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Stanley
05-04-2004, 05:54 AM
Outright plays (1pt):

Darren Clarke to win 11/1 e.w. @ Stan James
On course form, he is an automatic choice. In the last four years, he has finished in the top-5 every time and won twice. He has posted some high finishes in the U.S. this year and will surely continue that form now the real European Tour season has begun. Will look for another top-5 finish at worst from the Ulsterman.

Paul Casey to win 16/1 e.w. SkyBet, BetInternet, UKBetting and Totalbet
Casey has had two solid performances around the Forest of Arden complex and should go even better this time as it is a course that suits his game. It rewards attacking golf. He should also be buoyed by two extremely impressive performances on the PGA Tour where had had previously struggled. Top-10 finishes in the Players Championship and the Masters have put him high in the Ryder Cup standings and he will surely cement his place in the team over the next few months.

Michael Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Cambo last played on this course in 2000 when he led after an opening 63 and still retained the lead going into the final round. On that occasion, a closing 65 by Darren Clarke was enough to pip him to the title by a stroke, but at least he will now draw comfort that he tamed this course on his last visit. He similarly started very well with an opening 65 last week to lie 3rd, but fell back once the chaos arrived on the weather front. It still shows that he is playing well and if so, he is certainly capable of winning against such a strong field.

Stanley
05-05-2004, 10:58 AM
Matchup plays (1pt):

Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ SkyBet
Opposing Poulter with two of the outright selections. He is simply not consistent enough to be supported in matchbets. He did finish in the top-10 last week, but it was the first time that he had done so in a strokeplay event since January. Good course record, but there are others who can play this course well and are in much better, and more consistent, form.
(available widely)

Darren Clarke to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ BetandWin, William Hill and Easybets
Clarke's course form cannot be questioned and while his form on the PGA Tour has been patchy, though improved in the last six weeks, he is a far better player when in Europe.

Retief Goosen to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Ladbrokes
Simply the better player and, like Clarke, raises his game when in Europe where he is definitely a big fish in the proverbial little pond. Lots of good course experience and while I didn't fancy Goosen's outright odds, I would be very surprised to see him finish outside the top-10.

Bradley Dredge to beat Gregory Havret -125 @ Centrebet
Not reading too much into his 3rd place finish at the rain-shortened Italian Open last week and that leaves a lot o very average results for Havret. Dredge looks to be getting back to his best form and his withdrawal after the 1st round last week can be easily ignored.

Michael Campbell to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Backing the third outright selection in the matchups as well. Immelman's top finish outside South Africa this year has been 24th (strokeplay events only), he comes into the event off three missed cuts and he has poor course form. Should be straightforward for Campbell.

ksbradley
05-05-2004, 12:53 PM
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK---GOLF GURU!

I'M IN ON--Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter

My book has a matchup of Darren Clarke vs Goosen.
What are your thoughts on that matchup---Clarke?!
Or pass.


:thumbs:

Stanley
05-05-2004, 05:39 PM
Yes, Clarke - clear edge on course form and current form.

Stanley
05-09-2004, 12:50 PM
Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -2.53pts

Clarke 5th
Casey 12th
Campbell 16th

All three in contention for a top-5 finish, but only Campbell, who had been 2nd after the 1st round, looked like he could win the event. In the end, a four-way tie for 5th place with Clarke was enough to return only half of his stake, so not particularly profitable.

Matchups - Final update: 3-2-0; +0.64pts

Casey/Poulter WON by 3
Clarke/Poulter WON by 6
Goosen/Poulter LOST by 6
Dredge/Havret WON by 2
Cabrera/Immelman LOST by 2

Small profit, though would have been enough to cover the losses on the outrights had Poulter not finished right on the cut line. Generally encouraging though.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 6-16; -5.96pts
Matchups: 15-15; -2.15pts