NFL Home Dogs

[SkinsFan]

BillyBarooo or anyone else....

Any idea on how home dogs faired over the course of the 2003 season? I know that if you blindly bet home dogs in 2002, you would have hit about 55%... was their any similar success in 2003, and would this be a good system to follow in 2004?

[Get Paid]

Hope this helps!


Straight Up (Won Loss Tie)

Category....... ................Record........Percent
Away Teams.................216-291-1.........42.60%
Home Teams.................291-216-1.........57.40%
Favorites.......................321-182-1.........63.82%
Dogs .........................182-321-1.........36.18%
Away Favorites...........102-70-0.............59.30%
Away Dogs..................112-219-1..........33.84%
Home Favorites............219-112-1.........66.16%
Home Dogs.....................70-102-0.........40.70%

Against The Spread (ATS)

Category.................... Record............... Percent
Away Teams.............243-248-17...........49.49%
Home Teams............248-243-17............50.51%
Favorites..................220-267-17............45.17%
Dogs........................267-220-17.............54.83%
Away Favorites...........70-96-6...............42.17%
Away Dogs...............171-150-11............53.27%
Home Favorites........150-171-11............46.73%
Home Dogs.................96-70-0...............57.83%

[JB]

Looks like Home Dogs ATS is the way to go. You sure don't want to bet them ML though.

[SkinsFan]

WOW!!! Very nice info GP!!! Where did you get this from?

$100 blindly on every home dog would have produced $1900 in profits!!!

[SkinsFan]

GP:

I must be missing something... are these stats from the NFL in 2003? The numbers aren't adding up.....

[Get Paid]

JB--- Home dogs would take an average of +140 to break even, i dont know what the lines are like at all though.


Skins--- I got this info on wagerline. Choose your sport on the left side and then go to trends on the top.

They give the over/unders but it was 50.5% - 49.5% so that doesnt help anything.

[Get Paid]

Skins, i clicked "last season" and it didnt specify a year so its possible... whats not adding up?

[SkinsFan]

I'm not a mathematician, so correct me if I'm wrong...

32 teams x 16 games a piece = 512

512 games / 2 teams per game = 256 total games played


Assumming each game has 1 dog and 1 fav, there should be 256 of each. This also means there should be 256 AWAY teams and 256 HOME teams.

The stats posted indicate aways teams (straight up) went 216-291-1.... which equals 508.

Either A) two seasons have been incorporated in these stats or B) My math blows

[ridewithme]

adds up by my math

[SkinsFan]

ridewithme: how do you figure? what have I done wrong?

[beermantm]

I believe that was sarcasm...........

I checked the math on the percentages I'm gonna post for you but as I can not cut and past these so I'm only doing the %


favorites 49.6%
home favs 50.5%
away favs 47.2%

Dogs 50.4%
home dogs 52.8%
away dogs 49.5%


home 51.2 %
Away 48.8%