FlyersFan
04-30-2004, 01:55 AM
Well, DET came through last night and i am kicking myself for talking myself out of a larger wager on it (only played it at a 1* level). I will post and play until i reach my unit level i won't go under. The TOR win on WED pumped it up safely above that level. Lets hope it stays there.
Postseason stats:
1stRnd: 24-4
2ndRnd: 4-4
5* 3-0
4* 4-1
3* 5-1
2* 4-1
1* 12-5
Propbets: 42-26-4
PHI ML/PK +120..............2*.............game3 in TOR was an easy call. TOR came out with a ton of energy and PHI came out a little flat, dumb and happy after taking a 2-0 lead. TOR is a team that relies on emotion more than a system, and has for the last few years. PHI allowed TOR to play a physical game and had them running all over the place. It was also the first time all series that PHI didn't win the small battles along the boards and didn't own the front of the net on either side of the ice. Not to take anything away from a great TOR game3 effort, but they had 2 garbage deflections from 4th liners roaming uncovered in PHI zone. I think game4 will bring about some changes. TOR raised the bar in this series as far as physical (and typical of TOR..cheap play). PHI took some bad penalties and quite frankly was way out of sync. Game4 will bring some changes. First, PHI best defenseman is back in Jonsson, so Kap can go back to playing forward. This gives PHI it's best 2 way offensive player back and their best defenseman. Their PP is very different when Johnsson is not in the game. PHI is also juggling some lines to match up with TOR lines in terms of physicality and intensity. PHI will make the necessary adjustments. PHI has won 2 of the 3 times in TOR this year, and drilled them 11-1 in two regular season games. This is important from a confidence standpoint. They know they can win there. PHI was a good road team this year (17-12-10-2...meaning that they won or went to OT in 29 of 41 games) as they were 10th GS, 7th GAA, 13th PK and 5th on the PP on the road. They own a playoff best 38% PP on the road in the playoffs. TOR has been strong at home in the playoffs, but were shaky during the regular season at times. They were only 12th in GS, 20th GAA, 8th PP and 19th PK. OTT didn't generate any traffic in front of Belfour like PHI has, so the GAA for TOR in the postseason may be misleading. Also, TOR will be without Nieuwendyk and Nolan again in game4. This should be a tight game, but i see a lot of value in PHI today. If PHI can play their system, and get back to owning the front of the nets, they should take care of business today. PHI has scored first in 8 of the 9 playoff games this year. If they don't come out on top, they will be a GREAT game5 play. PHI 2-1.....Notes: PHI 26-23 SOG game1, TOR 27-24 SOG game2, SOG unofficial game3.......PHI PP 3-11 series, TOR PP 1-10 series.....PHI PP 7-22 playoffs (1st road PP at 38%) and PK 25-29 playoffs, TOR PP 5-43 playoffs and PK 39-46 playoffs......PHI scored first in 8 of 9 playoff games.....PHI 1-2 road playoffs, TOR 4-1 home playoffs...Home teams are 40-22 so far in the playoffs overall......PHI 5-2 STD
Will post some propbets and maybe another play tomorrow. I would love to play the UNDER in this one, but it is so easy to get screwed with the unders at 4 1/2.
Shark- congrats on the TAM...sorry, wasn't around yesterday, so i couldn't respond to your question. GL today!
GL to everyone!
Postseason stats:
1stRnd: 24-4
2ndRnd: 4-4
5* 3-0
4* 4-1
3* 5-1
2* 4-1
1* 12-5
Propbets: 42-26-4
PHI ML/PK +120..............2*.............game3 in TOR was an easy call. TOR came out with a ton of energy and PHI came out a little flat, dumb and happy after taking a 2-0 lead. TOR is a team that relies on emotion more than a system, and has for the last few years. PHI allowed TOR to play a physical game and had them running all over the place. It was also the first time all series that PHI didn't win the small battles along the boards and didn't own the front of the net on either side of the ice. Not to take anything away from a great TOR game3 effort, but they had 2 garbage deflections from 4th liners roaming uncovered in PHI zone. I think game4 will bring about some changes. TOR raised the bar in this series as far as physical (and typical of TOR..cheap play). PHI took some bad penalties and quite frankly was way out of sync. Game4 will bring some changes. First, PHI best defenseman is back in Jonsson, so Kap can go back to playing forward. This gives PHI it's best 2 way offensive player back and their best defenseman. Their PP is very different when Johnsson is not in the game. PHI is also juggling some lines to match up with TOR lines in terms of physicality and intensity. PHI will make the necessary adjustments. PHI has won 2 of the 3 times in TOR this year, and drilled them 11-1 in two regular season games. This is important from a confidence standpoint. They know they can win there. PHI was a good road team this year (17-12-10-2...meaning that they won or went to OT in 29 of 41 games) as they were 10th GS, 7th GAA, 13th PK and 5th on the PP on the road. They own a playoff best 38% PP on the road in the playoffs. TOR has been strong at home in the playoffs, but were shaky during the regular season at times. They were only 12th in GS, 20th GAA, 8th PP and 19th PK. OTT didn't generate any traffic in front of Belfour like PHI has, so the GAA for TOR in the postseason may be misleading. Also, TOR will be without Nieuwendyk and Nolan again in game4. This should be a tight game, but i see a lot of value in PHI today. If PHI can play their system, and get back to owning the front of the nets, they should take care of business today. PHI has scored first in 8 of the 9 playoff games this year. If they don't come out on top, they will be a GREAT game5 play. PHI 2-1.....Notes: PHI 26-23 SOG game1, TOR 27-24 SOG game2, SOG unofficial game3.......PHI PP 3-11 series, TOR PP 1-10 series.....PHI PP 7-22 playoffs (1st road PP at 38%) and PK 25-29 playoffs, TOR PP 5-43 playoffs and PK 39-46 playoffs......PHI scored first in 8 of 9 playoff games.....PHI 1-2 road playoffs, TOR 4-1 home playoffs...Home teams are 40-22 so far in the playoffs overall......PHI 5-2 STD
Will post some propbets and maybe another play tomorrow. I would love to play the UNDER in this one, but it is so easy to get screwed with the unders at 4 1/2.
Shark- congrats on the TAM...sorry, wasn't around yesterday, so i couldn't respond to your question. GL today!
GL to everyone!