Baz's MLB 2004

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following:

For 1/4 Unit:

St.Louis(Williams)-165 Over Los Angeles(Perez)
with
Minnesota(Santana)/NewYork Yankees(Mussina) Under 7.5{-110}

-------------------------------------------------------
For 1/4 Unit:

Boston(Schilling)-160 Over Anaheim(Washburn)
with
(NFL) Jacksonville-145 Over San Diego


gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

Hedging Earlier Action:

25 on Minnesota(Santana)/NewYork Yankees(Mussina) Over 7.5 {+103} @ Pinnacle

good luck,

baz

[bazanster2]

Boston(Martinez)-120 @ Anaheim (Colon)
Under 9

Martinez (r) 22-11 Quality Start Record
16-9 with 3.90 Era (94/217)
182-76 with 2.71 Era(691/2296) ML Career
1-0 with 7.36 Era (9/11.0) This Year vs. Anaheim
9-1 with 2.12 Era (22/93.1) Career vs. Anaheim

Anaheim hit Pedro for .348 (2.00 WHIP) in 11.0 innings This Season

Colon(r) 18-14 Quality Start Record:
18-12 with 5.01 Era (116/208.1)
1-1 with 5.52 Era (9/14.2) with 32 BR's vs. Anaheim This Year
6-9 with 4.06 Era (58/128.2) and .275 Average Allowed Career
21-12 Over


-----------------------------------------------------------
Angeles vs. Martinez
-----------------------------------------------------------
Figgins..........2-6 .333
Erstad.........10-36 .278
Guerrero.........3-7 .273
Anderson........7-33 .212
Glaus...........4-20 .200
DaVanon.........3-12 .250
Molina...........0-4 .000
Eckstein........7-22 .318
Pride............0-7 .000


--------------------------
Colon vs. Boston
--------------------------
Burks.............1-8 .125
Cabrera...........2-6 .333
Damon...........15-40 .374
Bellhorn..........2-5 .200
Reese.............2-8 .250
Ramirez..........7-20 .350
Ortiz............4-32 .125
Millar...........6-23 .261
Varitek..........7-25 .280
Mueller..........1-11 .091
Kapler.......... 6-25 .240


Mientkiewixz....11-33 .333
Mirabelli.........0-7 .000
Roberts......... 5-11 .455

Colon with Bases Empty .255
Colon with Runners On .282
Colon .280 Averaged Allowed and 5.42 Era
vs. Boston This Year 14.2 innings .333 Averaged Allowed, 2.18 WHIP and 5.52 Era

Boston 19-14 in Martinez Starts
Anaheim 21-13 in Colon Starts

Hitting vs. Righties Last 10:
Boston .323 with 8.4 runs
Anaheim .256 with 5.4 runs

Pedro has had 3 poor Starts in a row allowing 18 Er's in 17.1 innings.
Granted, 2 games where against the Yankees. Pedro hasn't pitch well
against Anaheim this year, but is 9-1 Lifetime.
Considering how hard Boston has hit Colon this year, Colon's .282 with
Runners on and Boston hitting .323 vs. Righties their last 10.

Pedro gets back on track at a good price.
Lean towards Over.



Betting Boston -120 .....See Parlay Below in Houston/Atlanta Game:

================================================== ====================
================================================== ====================

Minnesota(Radke) At New York Yankees(Leiber)-165
9.5 Total

Radke 24-10 Quality Start Record
1-0 with 2.25 Era(3/12) and .267 Average Allowed vs. Yankees This Year.
4-9 with 4.60 Era(52/101.2) and .288 Average Allowed vs Yankees Career

Radke 24-10 Quality Start Record
26/143 BB/K Ratio
7.94 Era, 1.21 WHIP and .267 vs. Righties This Year
Era is +1.00 Higher on the Road (3.06 Home to 4.06 Away)

Radke vs. Yankees Career

Jeter.........0-5 .000
Rodriquez.....0-3 .000
Sheffield.....1-5 .200
Williams......3-6 .500
Posada........2-5 .400
Matsui........2-4 .500
Sierra.........0
Olerud........4-11 .364
Cairo.........1-4 .250

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lieber 16-11 Quality Start Record
5.2 innings with 3.18 Era .370 Averaged Allowed This Year vs. Minnesota
3-0 (11/24) with 4.13 Era and .324 Averaged Allowed Lifetime vs. Minnesota
11-3 with 3.68 Era with 1.28 WHIP and .294 Averaged Allowed At Yankee Stadium

Minnesota vs. Lieber Career

Stewart.....0
Jones......3-13 .231
Hunter.....2-6 .333
Morneau....0-3 .000
Koskie.....3-8 .375
Ford.......1-3 .333
Guzman.....6-13 .462
Cuddyer 1-3 .333
Rivas......1-3 .333
Blanco.....4-11 .364

Minnesota 17-17 When Radke Starts
New York Yankees 18-9 When Lieber Starts

Pens:
Minnesota 16/30.0 with 4.80 Era
New York 21/35.2 with 5.30 Era

Vs. Righties Last 10:
Minnesota .277 with 4.3 Run Average
New York .215 with 3.5 Run Average

Away team is 5-2 in Wegner's last seven BHP.
MIN has lost Radke's last three starts.
Under is 7-2 in Minnesota last nine overall.
NYY is 12-3 in Lieber's last 15 home starts.
Under is 6-1 in the Yanks last seven overall.
New York is 16-4 in the last 20 meetings.

Have to go lean New York Yankees here. This is close to a must game for the Yankees.
They haven't been hitting Righties that well the last 10 games(.215)
Radke capable enough to win outright. Good numbers vs. Several key Yankee hitters.
Still, Radke has trouble with Righties.
Yankee veterans will be tough to beat here.

Parlaying the following individually to (NFL) Jacksonville-145 Over San Diego

For 1/5 Unit:

(1) New York Yankees(Lieber)-120 Minnesota(Lieber)
(2) New York Yankees(Lieber)/Minnesota(Lieber) Under 9.5{-120}

================================================== =============

Houston(Clemens) vs. Atlanta (Wright)-118 to -127
8.5 {-120} and 8 {-110 to +100}

Clemens 23-10 Quality Start Record
Clemens 18-4 2.98 Era (71/214.1) This Season
0-0 with 1.29 Era (1/7) with .167 This Season vs. Atlanta
0-2 with 4.67 Era (14/27) with .244 Career vs. Atlanta
328-164 with 3.18 Era ML Career

Clemens vs. Atlanta Career:

Furcal........1-5 .200
Giles.........1-3 .333
Drew..........0-2 .000
C.Jones......3-10 .300
Estrada.......1-3 .333
Franco......19-88 .216
LaRoche.......0-3 .000
A. Jones.....4-12 .250
Thomas........0-2 .000
Marrero.......0-3 .000


Wright 22-10 Quality Start Record
Wright 15-8 with 3.28 Era (68/186.1) This Season
0-1 with 2.00 Era (2/9) Career with .133 Averaged Allowed vs. Houston
Wright .225 Averaged Allowed with 1.07 WHIP vs. Righties
6-3 with 2.56 Era (27/95) with .228 Averaged Allowed At Home This Year
9-3 with 2.95 Era and .215 Averaged Allowed His Last 88.1 innings

Wright vs. Houston Career

Biggio.......2-4 .500
Beltran.....5-12 .417
Bagwell......0-5 .000
Berkman......0-2 .000
Kent...........0
Ensberg........0
Vizcaino.......0
Ausmus.......1-9 .111
Palmeriro....0-1...000

Clemens 18-13 Under This Season
Wright 18-12 Under This Season

Vs. Righties Last 10:
Houston .281 and 6.0 Run Average
Atlanta .244 and 5.0 Run Average

Bull Pens:
Houston 14/29.2 with 4.25 Era
Atlanta 48.2/27 with 4.99 Era

Jones is Probable.
Stated that he's more comfortable vs. Righties.

Clemens has not done well in Game 1's in Playoff Series.
He said that he doesn't care about what has happened before.

Going to go with Clemens. More experience and Houston hitting Righties better the last 10.

Parlaying individually to Boston(Martinez)-120 Over Anaheim(Colon)

For 1/4 Unit Each:

(1) Houston(Clemens)-120 Over Atlanta(Wright)
(2) Houston(Clemens)/Atlanta(Wright) Under 8.5{-120}

thanks and good luck today,

baz

[DJTranks]

GL Baz!

[bazanster2]

DJ,

Quite a comeback by the Yankees.
Mucho Gracias Lady Luck :thumbs:


Tough loss for Twins to bounce back from.
Yankee confidence soaring even higher.
Going to have to go with Brown on Friday.
He's been a little erratic, but don't think
Silva is going to be able to deal with this lineup too well.
Also taking the Over 9.5 for a smaller wager.

good luck this weekend,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following individually with

(NFL) Jacksonville-145 Over San Diego
and
New York Yankees(Brown)-145 Over Minnesota(Silva):

For 1/3 Unit:

(1) St.Louis(Marquis)-175 Over Los Angeles(Weaver)

1/5 Unit:

(2) St.Louis(Marquis)/Los Angeles(Weaver) Over 9 {-116}


==============================================
==============================================
Houston(Oswalt) @ Atlanta(Hampton)
Houston -123 to -133
Total 8.5

-----------------------------------------------

Oswalt(R)
22-13 Quality Start Record
20-10 with 3.49 Era(92/237.0)
0-0 with 3.68 Era(3/7.1) This Year vs. Atlanta
0-1 with 4.98 Era(12/21.2) Career vs. Atlanta

Hampton(L)
14-15 Quality Start Record
13-9 with 4.28 Era(82/172.1)
0-0 with 10.38 Era(5/4.1) This year vs. Houston
2-0 with 5.52 Era(19/31.0) Career vs. Houston

----------------------------------------------
Oswalt vs. Atlanta
----------------------------------------------
Furcal....1-5 .200
Giles.....2-8 .250
Drew......5-15 .333
C.Jones...2-10 .200
Estrada....-0-
LaRoche...1-4 .250
A.Jones...5-10 .500
Thomas.....-0-

----------------------------------------------
Hampton vs. Houston
----------------------------------------------
Biggio....2-11 .182
Beltran....5-7 .714
Lane.......2-2 1.000
Bagwell...4-15 .267
Berkman...5-14 .357
Kent.....17-63 .270
Ensberg....2-5 .400
Vizcaino..4-18 .222
Aumus.....1-12 .083

Last 10:
Houston vs. Lefties .220 and 2.9 Runs
Atlanta vs. Righties .247 with 5.5 Runs


Bull Pens:
Houston 14 Er's the last 29.2 innings
Atlanta 29 Er's the last 49.2 innings

Houston Leads Seaon Series 4-3 with the Under 4-3


================================================== ======
================================================== ======

Los Angeles(Weaver) @ St.Louis(Marquis)
St.Louis-180 to -172
Total 9.5 to 9

Weaver(R)
25-9 Quality Start Record
13-13 with 4.01 Era(98/220.0)
0-0 with 6.33 Era(9/13) This Year vs. St.Louis
2-0 with 4.09 Era(15/33.0) Career vs. St.Louis
Weaver 12-6 Over Away
Weaver 13 Er's allowed his last 17.1 innings with 1.90 WHIP

Marquis(R)
19-13 Quality Start Record
15-7 with 3.71 Era(83/201.1)
1-0 with 3.46 Era(5/13.0) This Year vs. LA
1-1 with 2.88 (8/25.0) Career vs. LA
Marquis 8 Er's allowed his last 16.2 innings with 1.62 WHIP

--------------------------------------------------------
Weaver vs. St.Louis
-------------------------------------------------------

Womack.....3-7 .429
Walker.....2-5 .500
Pujols.....1-3 .333
Rolen......3-6 .500
Renteria...1-11 .091
Edmonds....5-14 .357
Sanders.....-0-
Matheny....1-4 .250

Molina.....0-3 .000
Mabry......2-11 .182
Cedeno.....1-3 .333
Anderson...8-20 .400
Luna.......1-3 .333


------------------------------------------------------
Marquis vs. LA
------------------------------------------------------
Izuris.....2-6 .333
Werth......2-5 .400
Finley.....2-10 .200
Beltre.....4-12 .333
Green......3-11 .273
Bradley....0-6 .000
Cora.......2-11 .182
Mayne......2-7 .286
Choi.......1-5 .200


Bull Pens:
LA 25 Er's their last 40.2 innings
St.Louis 21 Er's their last 52.0 innings

Hitting vs. Righties The Last 10:
LA .213 with 3.7 Runs
St.Louis .268 with 4.5 Runs

St.Louis Leads Season Series 5-2
Home team 6-1
Over 5-2 (last 5 have gone Over)

Umpire Gibson 18-13 Over with 10.42 Total Average

----------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------

gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following individuall to (NCAA) Miami-9 Over Louisville

For 1/4 Unit Each:

Houston(Oswalt)-125 Over Atlanta(Wright)
Houston(Oswalt)/Atlanta(Wright) Under 9 {+120} @ BoDog

Oswalt 23-7 Quality Start Record
Oswalt 1.77 Era Last 20.1 innings with 16K's and 2 BB's.

Wright 13-5 with 2.41 Era at Night only allowing a Hr every 27 innings

---------------------------------------------------------------------

It's win or go home today.
Although Wright didn't do well last time against Houston, he does do well at Night.
Looking for a early pitching duel. My thinking is that if Wright defeats
Oswalt, he'll have to pitch well as Oswalt has been consistent and in
good recent form. If the games goes Over, then it will probably be because
Houston got to Wright again.

Astro's have been knocking at the door for quite a while.
This time Houston gets the better of their nemesis and gets in.

good luck today,

baz

p.s...Yesterday, I didn't post Hedging the Jacksonville/San Diego game.
Generally, I wouldn't leave that large a wager unprotected.
It was my intention to go with the split @ San Diego +3 and the possible
middle.
I'll post the math today or tomorrow.

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to (NCAA) Miami-9 Over Louisville

For a 1/5 Unit:

New York Yankees(Mussina) +135 Over Boston(Schilling)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
Sox are 21-4 in Schilling's last 25 starts.
Over is 18-3-1 in BOS last 22 overall.
Yanks are 5-1 in Mussina's last six starts.
NYY are 13-4 in their last 17 home games.
Home team is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

Schilling vs. Yankees Since 1987
-----------------------------------
Jeter...............2-21 .143
Rodriguez........2-8 .250
Sheffield......12-60 .200
Matsui.............3-7 .300
Williams.........5-17 .294
Posada..........4-13 .308
Sierra..............2-7 .286
Olerud...........8-22 .364
Cairo.............3-13 .231

-----------------------------------
Mussina vs. Boston
-----------------------------------

Damon.........18-25 .240
Belhorn............3-9 .333
Ramirez........15-74 .203
Ortiz...............2-29 .069
Milar...............8-23 .348
Nixon............11-57 .193
Varikek..........4-44 .091
Cabrera...........1-5 .200
Mueller..........0-15 .000


------------------------------------------------

Bull Pens:
Boston 26 Er's their last 44.2 with 1.39 WHIP
Yankees 21 Er's their last 35.1 with 1.61 WHIP

-------------------------------------------------

Mussina has thrown 7 Quality Starts in a row. (12 Er's /49.0 innings with 2.20 Era 11 BB's/49 K's)
Mussina Starts 10-4 @ Home

Schilling on 11-1 Quality Start record.
Schilling Starts 26-7

-----------------------------------------------

Schilling of couse is very tough. Mussina has been in top form and very capable of defeating
Boston. Mussina has been particularly tough on Ortiz and Ramirez.
This game may very well be decided by the Bull pens.
Would have to give the edge to Yankees.
Boston has hit better over the last 10(.279 to .256).
Yankees 58-25 @ Home

Look at this game as a Pk'em. So going to take the Home Team and the Points.

good luck,

baz
:)

[FearTheRaven]

whats your feeling on rivera, is he supposed to play? I still think the bosox pull it out. Its they're year this year.

[bazanster2]

Fear The Raven,

Sorry I didn't get back before the game was Over.
Well, we saw Riveria and he pitched well enough.
Good effort by Sox's after being down 8-0.
This is a Key Game. Believe that Boston
has to win in order to have a realistic chance in this Series.

good luck with your wagers,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to (NCAA) Miami-9 Over Louisville:

For 1/5 Unit:

Boston(Martinez)-132 Over New York Yankees(Lieber)

================================================== ====
Boston(Martinez)-132 Over New York Yankees(Lieber)
9.5 to 9 Total[/B]
================================================== ====


Martinez 23-11 Quaility Start Record.
Martinez 7-6 105.1 innings/54 Er's for a 4.61 ERA 1.32 WHIP and .257 Average Allowed.

Martinez Career vs. NY
10-10 189.0 innings/68 Er's for a 3.24 Era 1.08 WHIP and .213 Average Allowed.

Martinez Career At Yankee Stadium:
7-4 102.0 innings/34 Er's for a 3.00 Era 0.98 WHIP and .205 Average Allowed.

Boston 2-9 in Martinez last 11 Starts vs. NY

Martinez 20-7 Quality Start Record vs. New York
Martinez last 12.1 innings/13 Er's and 1.81 WHIP vs. Yankees.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lieber 17-11 Quality Start Record.
New York 19-9 in Lieber Starts.

Lieber 14-8 176.2/85 for a 4.33 1.32 WHIP and a .301 Average Allowed.
Lieber Home Starts 11-3 with 3.79 Era
Lieber Career At Yankee Stadium:
11-3 100.1 innings/41 Er's for a 3.68 Era 1.28 WHIP and .294 Aveage Allowed.

Lieber vs. Boston Career:
1-0 with 19.1 innings/9 Er's for a 4.19 Era and a .240 Average Allowed.

-----------------------------
Martinez vs. New York Career:
-----------------------------
Jeter..........18-77 .234
Rodriguez.......9-43 .209
Sheffield.......9-32 .281
Matsui..........3-22 .136
Williams.......14-71 .197
Posada.........11-57 .193
Sierra..........8-29 .276
Olerud.........10-43 .233
Cairo...........6-24 .250

--------------------------
Lieber vs. Boston Career:
--------------------------
Damon...........2-15 .133
Belhorn.........1-4 .250
Ramirez.........1-11 .091
Ortiz...........4-10 .400
Millar..........9-21 .429
Nixon............2-5 .400
varikek..........0-5 .000
Cabrera.........2-18 .111
Mueller........15-31 .484
-------------------------

Hitting Last 10 vs. Righties:
Boston .287 Average and 6.7 Runs
New York .259 Aveage and 4.9 Runs

Bull Pens:
Boston 35 Er's their last 56.2 innings for a 5.56 Era and 1.45 WHIP
New York 24 Er's their last 33.2 innings for a 6.42 Era and 1.78 WHIP

Over 9-1 Last 10 meetings.


Pedro has had quite a while to stew over his recent struggles vs. the Yanks.
Looking for him to come out with a terrific effort. Career has has done
well against all but Sheffield and Sierra.
Some of the Boston hitters have good records vs. Lieber.
Lieber pitches better at Home.

willing to make a small wager on RedSox's here.
See this as an Over kind of Series, but passing today's Total.

================================================== ===
================================================== ===

Houston(Backe) @ St.Louis(Williams)-255
Total 10
============================================
Backe
4-6 Quality Start record
St.Louis 8-2 in His Starts(5-5 Over/Under)

5-3 67.0 innings/32 Er's with 4.30 Era 1.52 WHIP and .290 Average Allowed

Career vs. St.Louis:
13.0 innings/4 Er's with 2.77 Era 1.38 WHIP and .265 Average Allowed

Telling Stat:
Away 3-2 with 6.43 Era
Home 5-0 with 1.80 Era

Career Home/Away Stats:
Away 62.2 innings/42 Er's for a 6.03 Era 1.74 WHIP and .313 Average Allowed
Home 62.0 innings/27 Er's for a 3.92 Era 1.29 WHIP and .231 Average Allowed


-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Williams 19-13 Quality Start Record:
189.2 Innings/88 Er's for a 4.18 Era 1.35 WHIP and .262 Average Allowed

St.Louis 12-4 At Home with Williams

Williams at Home:
5-3 96.1 innings/36 Er's for a 3.36 Era and .236 Average Allowed

Williams At Bush Stadium Career:
96.1 innings/36 with 3.36 Era 1.18 WHIP and .236 Average Allowed
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Backe vs. St.Louis:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Womack.........3-4 .750
Walker.........1-1 1.000
Pujols.........2-5 .400
Rolen..........0-2 .000
Edmonds........1-4 .250
Renteria.......0-3 .000
Sanders........1-4 .250
Matheny........0-1 .000

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Williams vs. Houston:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggio.........14-48 .292
Beltran.........1-11 .091
Bagwell........16-46 .348
Berkman.........8-35 .229
Kent...........13-35 .371
Ensberg.........4-14 .267
Vizcanio.........0-4 .000
Ausmus..........7-32 .219

Under is 4-0 in Munro's last four starts.
Houston is 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
Over is 8-4 in HOU last 12 overall.
Cardinals are 19-4 in Williams' last 23 starts.
STL is 24-7 in their last 31 home games.
Houston is 6-1 in their last seven meetings.

Have to lean towards St.Louis winning due to Backe Road woes.
However, he has had 4 Quality Starts and has won both his
Starts vs. Cardinals. Leary of the -240.
Think that taking the points has more value.
It's the playoffs and anyone's game.

Passing
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

thanks and good luck,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following individually to (NFL) Denver-125 Over Oakland

For 1/4 Unit:

St.Louis(Morris)-1.5 runs[-115] Over Houston(Munro)

-------------------------------------------------------

Muno 4-15 Quality Start Record
4-7 with 5.15 Era(57 Er's/99.2 innings) with 1.46 WHIP and .302 Averaged Allowed.
3-6 Team Record Away with a 5.29 Era Away.
1-4 with 5.29 Era(28/47.2) with a 1.59 WHIP and .325 Average Allowed On THe Road This Year
1-4 with 6.59 Era(17/23.1) with 1.67 WHIP and .313 Average Allowed vs. St.Louis Career

@ Busch:
10.0 innings/10 Er's for a 9.00 Era with a 2.30 WHIP and .378 Average Allowed.

------------------------------------------------------
Morris 16-16 Quality Start Record.
15-10 with 4.72 Era(106 Er's/202 innings) with 1.29 WHIP and .266 Average Allowed
12-4 with 3.69 Era with .235 Average Allowed.
51-26 with 3.15 Era with 1.19 WHIP and .247 Average Allowed @ Busch.

Career vs. Houston
8-9 with 3.55 Era(63 Er's/159.2 innings) with 1.30 Era and .262 Average Allowed

------------------------------------------------------
Morris vs. Houston Career:
------------------------------------------------------
Biggio......16-66 .242
Beltran......3-14 .214
Bagwell.....23-71 .324
Berkman.....20-53 .377
Kent........14-44 .318
Ensberg......2-11 .182
Vizcanio.....6-26 .231
Amus........16-52 .308

------------------------------------------------------
Muno vs. St.Louis Career:
-----------------------------------------------------

Womack.....0-1 .000
Walker.....1-3 .333
Pujols.....4-9 .444
Rolen......2-9 .222
Renteria..3-10 .300
Edmonds...3-10 .300
Sanders....2-4 .500
Matheny...5-11 .454

-----------------------------------------------------

Hitting vs. Righties the Last 10:
Houston .302 and 6.9 runs
St.Louis .268 and 5.2 runs

Bull Pens:
Houston 24 Er's thier last 24.2 innings for a 8.79 Era
St.Louis 17 Er's in 40.1 innings for a 3.79 Era

Comments:

Willing to try runline due to Muno's Road record, especially @ Busch.
Also, Morris pitches well at Home and is 51-26 at Busch.

-----------------------------------------------------

Hedging Previous Action:

For 1/2 Unit:
(NCAA)Louisville +9 Over Miami
with
(NFL) Denver -125 Over Oakland

----------------------------------------------------


good luck today,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following individually to (NFL) St.Louis-6 Over TampaBay


For 1/3 Unit:
New York Yankees(Hernandez)-115 Over Boston(Lowe)
For 1/5 Unit:
New York Yankees(Hernandez)/Boston(Lowe) Over 11.5
-----------------------------------------------------
Hernandez(7-7 Quality Start Record)
8-2 with 3.30 Era(31Er's/84.2 innings) This Season
5-2 with 4.21 Era Away This Season
5-4 with 3.17 Era(29 Er's/82.1 innings) Career vs. Boston
o-o with 3.00 Era(1 Er/3.0 innings) This Season vs. Boston
9-3 with 2.51 Era(27 Er's/97.0 innings) Post Season Career

Lowe(12-21 Quality Start Record)
14-12 with 5.42 Era(110 Er's/182.2 innings) This Season
9-5 with 4.76 Era At Home This Season
8-10 with 6.07 Era(69 Er's/102.1 innings) Career vs. New York
2-3 with 9.28 Era(22 Er's/21.1 innings) THis Season vs. New York
2-4 with 3.50 Era(17 Er's/43.2 innings) Post Season Career
-----------------------------------------------------------
Lowe vs. Yankees Career:
-----------------------------------------------------------
Jeter..........15-52 .288
Rodriquez.......7-24 .292
Sheffeld........2-5 .400
Matsui.........12-22 .545
Williams.......13-37 .351
Posada.........10-36 .278
Sierra...........2-5 .400
Olerud..........3-10 .300
Cairo...........2-13 .154

---------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez vs. Boston Career:
----------------------------------------------------------
Damon........15-35 .429
Belhorn.......1-2 .500
Ramirez......10-30 .333
Ortiz.........3-7 .300
Varitek.......1-16 .063
Nixon.........5-29 .172
Millar........0-5 .000
Mueller.......No At Bats
Cabrera.......0-1 .000

------------------------------------------------------------------
1/4 Unit:

Houston(Oswalt)-165 Over St.Louis(Marquis)
Total 9.5

Marquis(19-14 Quality Start Record)
15-7 with 3.71 Era(83 Er's/201.1 innings) THis Season
1-2 with 7.11 Era(20 Er's/25.1 innings) Career vs. Houston
1-1 with 4.50 Era(9 Er's/18.0 innings) This Season vs. Houston
0-0 with 5.06 Era(3 Er's/5.1 innings) Post Season Career

Oswalt(23-14 Quality Start Record)
20-10 with 3.49 Era(92 Er's/237.0 innings) This Season
4-2 with 3.24 Era(26 Er's/72.1 innings) Career vs. St.Louis
2-0 with 2.25 Era(5 Er's/20.0 innings) This Season vs. St.Louis
1-0 with 2.38 Era(3 Er's/11.0 innings) Post Season Career

---------------------------------------------------------
Marquis vs. Houston Career:
---------------------------------------------------------
Biggio........4-12 .250
Beltran........0-2 .000
Bagwell.......6-14 .429
Berkman........4-7 .571
Kent..........8-16 .500
Ensberg.......1-1 1.000
Vizcaino......1-6 .167
Ausmus........1-9 .111

-------------------------------------------------------
Oswalt vs. St.Louis Career:
-------------------------------------------------------
Womack...........1-9 .111
Walker..........2-13 .154
Pujols.........11-32 .344
Rolen...........4-20 .200
Edmonds.........7-21 .333
Renteria........8-25 .320
Sanders..........2-9 .222
Matheny.........3-15 .200

------------------------------------------------------
thanks and good luck,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following individually to (NFL)Philadelphia-7 Over Cleveland

For 1/4 Unit Each:
(1)New York Yankees(Mussina)+140 Over Boston(Martinez)
(2)New York Yankees(Mussina)/Boston(Martinez) Under 9.5
(3) Houston(Backe)+150 Over St.Louis(Williams)
(4) Houston(Backe)/St.Louis(Williams) Under 10.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------
St.Louis(Williams)-150 Over Houston(Backe)
Total 10.5

Williams(19-14 Quality Start Record)
11-8 with 4.18 Era(88 Er's/189.2 innings) This Season
6-5 with 5.01 Era(52 Er's/93.1 innings) Away This Season
7-3 with 4.69 Era(33 Er's/63.1 innings) Career At Minute Maid Park
9-4 with 4.00 Era(45 Er's/101.5 innings) Career vs. Houston
1-1 with 9.00 Era(15 Er's/15.0 innings) This Season vs. Houston
3-1 with 3.60 Era(10 Er's/25.0 innings) Career PostSeason

Backe(4-5 Quality Start Record)

5-3 with 4.30 Era(32 Er's/67.0 innings)This Season
4-1 with 2.61 Era(11 Er's/38.0 innings) Career At Minute Maid Park and .237 Average Allowed
1-0 with 2.77 Era(3 Er's/13.0 innings) Career and This Season vs. St.Louis
1-0 with5.06 Era(4 Er's/13.0 innings) Career PostSeason

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Williams vs. Houston
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggio........4-15 .292
Beltran.......1-11 .091
Bagwell.......16-46 .348
Berkman.......8-35 .229
Kent..........13-35 .371
Ensberg........4-15 .267
Vizcaino.......4-16 .250
Ausmus.........7-32 .219

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Backe vs. St.Louis
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Womack.........3-4 .750
Walker.........1-1 1.000
Pujols.........2-5 .400
Rolen..........0-2 .000
Edmonds........1-4 .250
Renteria.......0-3 .000
Sanders........1-4 .250
Matheny........0-1 .000
Mabry..........2-3 .667

================================================== =============
================================================== =============

Boston(Martinez)-156 vs. New York Yankees(Mussina)
Total 9.5

Mussina(13-16 Quality Start Record, but on a 7-1 QS run)
12-9 with 4.59 Era(84 Er's/164.2 innings) This Season
4-7 with 5.25 Era(48 Er's/82.1 innings) Away This Season
10-6 with 3.19 Era(51 Er's/144.0 innings) Career at Fenway
17-12 with 3.12 Era(102 Er's/294.2 innings) Career vs. Boston
1-1 with 3.50 Era(7 Er's/18,0 innings) This Season vs. Boston
6-6 with 3.17 Era(40 Er's/113.2 innings) Career PostSeason

Martinez(24-12 Quality Start Record)
16-7 with 3.90 Era(94 Er's/217.0 innings) This Season
9-3 with 3.22 Era(40 Er's/111.2 innings) At Home This Season
58-18 with 2.67 Era(195 Er's/657.2 innings) Lifetime at Fenway
10-10 with 3.24 Era(68 Er's/26.1 innings) Career vs. New York
1-2 with 5.47 Era(16 Er's/26.1 innings) This Season vs. New York

------------------------------------------------------------
Martinez vs. New York
------------------------------------------------------------
Jeter..........18-77 .234
Rodriquez.......9-43 .209
Sheffeld........9-32 .281
Matsui..........3-21 .136
Williams.......14-71 .197
Posada.........11-57 .193
Sierra..........8-19 .276
Olerud.........10-43 .233
Cairo...........6-24 .250

This Season Yankees hit .245 vs. Martinez

----------------------------------------------------------
Mussina vs. Boston
----------------------------------------------------------
Damon........18-75 .240
Belhorn.......3-9 .333
Ramirez......15-74 .203
Ortiz.........2-29 .069
Varitek.......4-44 .091
Nixon........11-57 .193
Millar........2-8 .250
Mueller.......0-15 .000
Cabrera.......1-5 .200

THis Season Boston hit .268 vs. Mussina
--------------------------------------------------------

good luck today,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to (NFL) Philadelphia-7 Over Cleveland

for 1/4 Unit:

Boston(Schilling)+101 Over New York Yankees(Lieber)
------------------------------------------------------------
Schilling (23-11 Quality Start Record)
21-6 with 3.26 Era(82 Er's/226.2 innings) with .239 Average Allowed This Season
6-2 with 2.24 Era(24 Er's/96.1 innings) Career Post Season Record
9-5 with 3.00 Era(33 Er's/99.0 innings) with .241 Average Allowed Away
0-1 with 3.72 Era(4 Er's/9.2 innings) with .156 Average Allowed Career At Yankee Stadium

This Year:
Bases Empty .233
Runners On .250
RISP .221
RISP w/2 Outs .192
Bases Loaded .231

Boston is 26-8 in Schilling Starts
Over 23-11 in Schilling Starts
------------------------------------------------------------
Lieber(18-5 Quality Start Record)
14-8 with 4.33 Era(85 Er's/176.2 innings) with .301 Average Allowed This Season
1-0 with 2.63 Era(4 Er's/19.1 innings) Career PostSeason Record
11-3 with 3.68 Era(41 Er's/100.1 innings) with .294 Average Allowed Career at Yankee Stadium
1-0 with 4.19 Era(9 Er's/19.1 innings) Career and this Season vs. Boston

This Season:
Bases Empty .290
Runners On .317
RISP .284
RISP w/2 Outs .302
Bases Loaded .250

New York 20-9 in Lieber Starts Overall
New York 14-3 in Lieber Starts At Home

------------------------------------------------------------
Schilling vs. New York
------------------------------------------------------------
Jeter...........3-21 .143
Rodriquez........2-8 .250
Sheffeld.......12-60 .200
Matsui...........3-7 .429
Williams........5-17 .294
Posada..........4-13 .308
Sierra...........2-7 .286
Olerud..........8-22 .364
Cairo..........

This Season Yankees hit .239 vs. Schilling

----------------------------------------------------------
Lieber vs. Boston
----------------------------------------------------------
Damon..........2-15 .133
Belhorn.........1-4 .250
Ramirez........1-11 .091
Ortiz..........4-10 .400
Varitek.........0-5 .000
Nixon...........2-5 .400
Millar.........9-21 .429
Mueller.......15-31 .484
Cabrera........2-18 .111

This Season Boston hit .240 vs. Lieber

---------------------------------------------------------

Bull Pens Last 10:* doesn't included Yesterday's Numbers.

Boston 5.48 Era with .298 Average Allowed
Boston Available Pen:
5.18 Era (14 Er's their last 24.1 innings)

New York 4.43 Era with .281 Average Allowed
New York Available Pen:
8.50 Era(17 Er's their last 18.0 innings)

---------------------------------------------------------

Yankee Stadium this Season:
25-33 Under when Wind Under 10 MPH.
13-8 Over when Wind Over 10 MPH.

Boston 45-40 Away
New York 60-25 At Home

--------------------------------------------------------

Very tough game to call here. Definately not a Rent $$$ kind of game.
The big question is how healthy Schilling's ankle is and how will the layoff affect him.
Yankees win 70% At Home so it's a kind of an Underlay for Yankee bettors from that
stand point. Yankee bull pen has fail to shut the door twice in a row. Would pass on the
Under due to the amount of recent innings by both pens and Schilling's games tend to
go Over.
The Under Pressure Stats favor Schilling. He's the better starter, but Lieber very
capable as indicated by his 18-5 Quality Start record. This is particularly impressive
considering the league hit .301 against him! Comapre this to Schilling's .239

Going with the more experienced pitcher.
To be honest, the Yankees represent the more value in betting terms(IMO),
but I'd like to see a game 7
:)

good luck to you whichever team you cheer for,

baz

[bazanster2]

FearTheRaven

Sorry, I missed your earlier post.
A telling stat mentioned today was that Rivera
has 9 blown Saves vs. Boston and 16 vs. the
rest of MLB.
Boston is usually a competitive club with good bats.
It's their pitching which has hindered them.

As far as Riveria is concerned. He's had a tough go at it
the last couple of games. Although he blew his second
straight save, he did get the critical out when needed.
He's as tough as nails. He's had an amazing
run as a closer in Post Season.
Careerwise, he's held hitters to a .216 average.
He could very well be a deciding factor in this Series still.
That's why it's critical for Boston to try to get out in front
early and try to elimate having to face him with the game
on the line. The Red Sox's success against him should
boost their confidence, but it's long odds that Boston
or anyone for that matter get the best of Mario 3 in a row.

Should be a great game.
What a Series so far.
May the best team win,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following with (NFL) Philadelphia-7 Over Cleveland

For 1/4 Unit:

St.Louis(Morris)-1.5{-130} Over Houston(Muno)

Muno
4-7 with 5.15 Era(57 Er's/99.2 innings) This Season
0-0 with 0.00 Era(0 Er's/1.0 innings) Vs. St.Louis This Season
1-4 with 6.56 Era(17 Er's/32.1 innings) Career vs. St.Louis
0-0 with 5.79 Era(3 Er's/4.2 innings) Career PostSeason
1-4 with 5.29 Era(28 Er's/47.2 innings) Away This Season
1-2 with 9.00 Era(10 Er's/10.0 innings) Career at Busch Stadium

Morris
15-10 with 4.72 Era(106 Er's/202.0 innings)
2-1 with 3.08 Era(9 Er's/26.1 innings) This Season vs. Houston
8-9 with 3.55 Era(63 Er's/159.2 innings) Career vs. Houston
1-4 with 3.59 Era(21 Er's/52.2 innings) Career PostSeason
9-4 with 3.69 Era(46 Er's/122.1 innings) Home This Season
51-26 with 3.15 Era(240 Er's/685.2 innings) 1.19 WHIP and .247 Average Career At Busch

Houston has hit.220 vs. Morris This Season
Houston has hit .262 vs. Morris Career
-------------------------------------------------------------
Morris vs. Houston:
-------------------------------------------------------------

Biggio.........16-66 .242
Beltran.........3-14 .214
Bagwell........23-71 .324
Berkman........20-53 .377
Kent...........14-44 .318
Ensberg.........2-11 .182
Vizcaino........6-26 .231
Ausmus.........16-52 .308
Palmeriro.......1-7 .167
---------------------------------------------------------
Muno vs. St.Louis
---------------------------------------------------------
Womack..........1-1 1.000
Walker..........1-3 .333
Pujols...........4-9 .444
Rolen............2-9 .222
Edmonds.........3-10 .300
Renteria........3-10 .300
Sanders..........2-4 .500
Matheny.........5-11 .455

St.Louis has hit .313 vs. Muno For Career
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bull Pens:
Houston 17 Er's their last 22.0 innings for a 6.95 Era
St.Louis 12 Er's thier last 18.0 innings for a 6.00 Era

================================================== ==============
================================================== ==============

Boston(Lowe) @ New York Yankees(Brown)-165
Total 10.5 to 10

Lowe
14-12 with 5.42 Era(110 Er's in 182.2 innings) This Season
2-3 with 9.28 Era(22 Er's/21.1 innings) Vs. New York this Season
6-8 with 6.21 Era(66 Er's/95.2 innings) Away This Season
8-10 with 6.07 Era(69 Er's/102.1 innings) Career vs. New York
2-4 with 3.67 Era(20 Er's/49.0 innings) Career PostSeason
3-5 with 6.02 Era(35 Er's/52.1 innings)1.68 WHIP and .319 Average Career At Yankees Stadium

New York Hit .354 (2.20 WHIP) vs. Lowe This Season
New York has hit .315 (1.68 WHIP) vs. Lowe Career

Brown
10-6 with 4.09 Era(60 Er's/132.0 innings) This Season
6-2 with 3.65 Era(28 Er's/69.0 innigns) At Home This Season
0-1 with 5.93 Era(9 Er's/13.2 innings) Vs. Boston This Season
7-7 with 4.35 Era(66 Er's/136.2 innings) Vs. Boston Career
5-4 with 3.70 Era(33 Er's/80.1 innings) Career PostSeason
10-5 with 3.78 Era(47 Er's/112.0 innnings) Career At Yankee Stadium

Boston has hit .268 (1.46 WHIP) Career vs. Brown

---------------------------------------------------
Lowe vs. New York
--------------------------------------------------
Jeter.........15-52 .288
Rodriquez......7-24 .292
Sheffeld.......8-17 .471
Matsui........12-22 .545
Williams......13-37 .351
Posada........10-36 .278
Sierra.........2-5 .400
Clark..........3-16 .188
Cairo..........2-13 .154
Olerud.........3-10 .300

-----------------------------------------------------
Brown vs. Boston:
-----------------------------------------------------

Damon..........0-7 .000
Belhorn........3-8 .375
Ramirez........4-16 .250
Ortiz..........4-8 .500
Varitek........3-6 .500
Nixon..........1-1 1.000
Millar.........1-7 .143
Mueller........9-30 .300
Cabrera........7-21 .333

-----------------------------------------------------
Over is 5-1 in Wakefield's last six starts.
Under is 4-1 in BOS last five overall.
Red Sox are on a three game winning streak.
NYY is 8-3 in Brown's last 11 home starts.
Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven at home.
Home team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.


Lowe has really struggled against the Yankees.
Don't like the price. Afterall this is a game 7.
Going to pass.

good luck today,

baz

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to (NFL)Philadelphia-7 Over Cleveland

1/3 Unit:
Houston(Clemens)+114 Over St.Louis(Suppan)

-----------------------------------------------------

Clemens(25-11 Quality Start Record)
18-4 with 2.98 Era(71 Er's/214.1 innings) This Season.
6-1 with 3.43 Era(31 Er's/81.1 innings) and .235 Average Allowed -Away This Season
2-0 with 2.36 Era(7 Er's/26.2 innings) and .189 Average Allowed Vs. St.LouisThis Season
3-0 with 2.43 Era(9 Er's/33.1 innings) and .200 Average Allowed vs. St.Louis Career
2-0 with 1.32 Era(2 Er's/13.2 innings) and .152 Average Allowed Career at Busch
------------
Career Post Season:
Clemens 10-6 with 3.40 Era(66 Er's/174.2 innings)


Suppan(19-14 Quality Start Record)
16-9 with 4.16 Era(87 Er's/188.0 innings)
6-8 with 4.75 Era(51 Er's/96.2 innings) and .299 Average Allowed At Home This Season
1-4 with 4.11 Era(14 Er's/30.2 innings) and .306 Average Allowed vs. Houston This Season
2-6 with 4.75 Era(32 Er's/60.2 innings) and .304 Average Allowed vs. Houston Career
8-9 with 4.55 Era(62 Er's/122.2 innings) and .295 Average Allowed Career At Busch
------------
Career PostSeason:
1-1 with 3.46 Era(5 Er's/13.0 innings)

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Suppan vs. Houston:
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggio..........5-26 .192
Beltran.........1-6 .167
Bagwell........11-27 .407
Berkman.........8-22 .364
Kent...........11-28 .393
Ensberg.........3-10 .300
Vizcaino.......13-21 .619
Ausmus..........6-29 .207

----------------------------------------
Clemens vs. Houston:
----------------------------------------

Womack.........4-10 .400
Walker..........1-5 .200
Pujols..........2-9 .222
Rolen..........4-12 .333
Edmonds........8-39 .205
Renteria........4-17 .235
Sanders.........1-5 .200
Matheny........2-16 .125
Mabry..........2-13 .154

----------------------------------------
HOU is 9-1 in Clemens' last 10 starts.
Astros are 13-4 in their last 17 overall.
Under is 4-1 in HOU last five games.
Under is 4-1 in Suppan's last five starts.
STL is 1-3 in their last four games.
Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings.

--------------------------------------

Bull Pens: Recent Form Edge Goes to St.Louis

-----------------------------------------

Clemens Era his last 54.1 innings has been 1.99
Suppan has allowed 11 Er's his last 20.
St.Louis 11-1 in Clemens last 12 Starts.
Looking at the Pitcher vs. Hitter averages, the edge clearly goes to Clemens.
If this holds true, then the next question will be can Houston's pen hold on?
Playoff Experience is heavily in favor of Clemens(174.2 innings to 13.0 innings)

thanks and gl,

baz

[bazanster2]

Sentimental pick here. St.Louis has a very reasonable chance of winning here.
They really need to win this game, because having to face Martinez and Schilling
they could very well find themselves down 0-3.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Only 1/5 Unit:

Parlaying the following individually to (NFL)Philadelphia-7 Over Cleveland

(1) Boston(Wakefield)-125 Over St.Louis(Williams)


Kind of a toss up. Should be some hitting,
but the 11 Total a bit pricey in terms of risk/reward.
Williams has struggled somewhat away and Wakefield has pitch better at Home.
Williams did pitch well last time out. Still, Wakefield has been in the better
form over the last 3.


-------------------------------------------------------------------
Williams(19-15 Quality Start Record)
11-8 with 4.18 Era(88 Er's/189.2 innings) This Season
6-5 with 5.01 Era(52 Er's/93.1 innings) 1.47 WHIP and .288 Average Allowed Away This Season
47-50 with 4.53 Era(419 Er's/833.0 innings) 1.37 WHIP and .267 Average Allowed Career Away

3-4 with 4.61 Era(34 Er's/66.1 innings) 1.46 WHIP and .271 Average Allowed Career vs. Boston
2-2 with 4.62 Era(19 Er's/37.0 innings) 1.32 WHIP and .243 Average Allowed Career At Fenway

Career PostSeason:
3-1 with 2.81 Era(10 Er's/32.0 innings)

Career Stats
103-84 with 4.05 Era(776 Er's/1723.1 innings)

Bases Empty 2.67 Era with 1.34 WHIP and .260
Runners On 6.01 Era with 1.30 WHIP and .265
RISP 7.69 Era with 1.35 WHIP and .258
RISP w/2 Outs 16.43 Era with 0.90 WHIP and .273

St.Louis 23-11 in Williams Start
14 Er's his last 22.0 innings (5.12 Era)

-----------------------------------------------------

Wakefield(16-14 Quality Start Record)
12-10 with 4.87 Era(102 Er's/188.1 innings) This Season
1-1 with 5.06 Era(15 Er's/26.2 innings)1.65 WHIP and .282 Average Allowed Career vs. St.Louis
6-6 with 4.99 Era(63 Er's/113.2 innings)1.35 WHIP and .268 Average Allowed At Home This Season
63-55 with 4.21 Era(499 Er's/1067.2 innings) 1.36 WHIP and .262 Average Allowed Career Home

Career PostSeason:
5-4 with 5.66 Era(35 Er's/55.2 innings)

54-52 with 4.38 Era(463 Er's/950.1 innings) 1.35 WHIP and .264 Average Allowed Career Fenway

Wakefield as pitch better at Night so far this season:
Night 4.31 Era with 1.33 WHIP and .245 Average Allowed.
Day 6.32 Era with 1.52 WHIP and .309 Average Allowed.

Bases Empty 2.93 Era with 1.35 WHIP and .261
Runners On 7.29 Era with 1.42 WHIP and .268
RISP 9.77 Era with 1.42 WHIP and .247
RISP w/2 Outs 20.96 Era with 1.21 WHIP and .224
Bases Loaded 31.50 Era with 4.50 WHIP and .538

Boston 16-14 in Wakefield Starts:
Wakefield 7 Er's his last 19.2 innings (3.28 Era)

-------------------------------------------------------

Over the last 7 games, Boston has hit .277 compared to .255 for St.Louis
Wakefield has pitched better at Home and at Night this Season.
This is a fairly even Series. St.Louis has the edge in Fielding with fewer errors and more DP's.
St.Louis had +58 more Stolen Bases than their Opponents.
Boston was out stolen by 58 by Opponents this Season.
Like Boston's chances due to Schilling and Martinez.
Not much middle ground here with Wakefield. Generally, he's really good or really bad.
Pete Rose once mentioned how tough it was to go from facing a knuckler, then having
to face a power pitcher the next day. Martinez was 6th in K's(227 in 217.0 innings)
and Schilling was 9th with 203 K's in 226.2 innings.

4 of the Top Home Run Hitters are playing;
(2) Pujos 46 HR's (12.8 AB)
(5) Ramirez 43 Hr's (13.2 AB)
(6) Edmonds 42 Hr's (11.8 AB)
(8) Ortiz 41 Hr's (14.1 AB)
--------------------------------
(20) Rolen 34 HR's (14.7 AB)


================================================== ====
St.Louis 41-28 Away vs. Righties
Boston 42-17 At Home vs. Righties
================================================== ====


good luck this weekend,

baz

http://imagesavers.com/041023/1098521497.JPG

================================================== ======
================================================== ======
http://imagesavers.com/041023/1098518136.JPG

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to NFL Denver-6.5 Over Cincinnati[/B]

For 1/4 Unit:
(1) Boston(Schilling)-170 Over St.Louis(Morris)

For 1/10 Unit:

(2) Boston(Schilling)/St.Louis(Morris) Over 10.5 {-110}

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morris(17-19 Quality Start Record)
15-10 with 4.72 Era(106 Er's/202.0 innings) This Season
6-6 with 6.02 Era(60 Er's/89.2 innings) with 1.48 WHIP and .302 Average Allowed Away
6-4 with 5.35 Era(46 Er's/77.1 innings) with 1.42 WhIP and .289 Average Allowed Post
All Star

Has Never Faced Boston or pitched at Fenway.

St.Louis 22-13 With Morris Starting
St.Louis 8-9 with Morris Away
Morris on 1-6 Quality Start run

Career Postseason:
1-4 with 3.75 Era(24 Er's/57.2 innings)

87-52 with 3.53 Era(464 Er's/1184.2 innings) MLB Career

-------------------------------------------------------------

Schilling(24-11 Quality Start Record)
21-6 with 3.26 Era(82 Er's/226.2 innings) This Season
12-1 with 3.45 Era(49 Er's/127.2 innigns) with 1.08 WHIP and .238 Average Allowed At Home
10-2 with 3.38 Era(38 Er's/101.1 innigns) with 0.94 WHIP and .217 Average Allowed Post
All-Star

5-9 with 4.58 Era(68 Er's/133.2 innings) with 1.21 WHIP and .246 Average Allowed Career vs. St.Louis
13-3 with 3.88 Era(66 Er's/153.0 innings) with 1.16 WHIP and .249 Average Allowed At Fenway
Boston 27-8 with Schilling Starting
Boston 16-2 At Home with Schilling Starting

Schilling has only allowed Right Handers a .232 Average This Season

Career PostSeason:
7-2 with 2.18 Era(25 Er's/103.1 innings)

184-123 with 3.32 Era(1039 Er's/2812.2 innings) MLB Career

-------------------------------------------------------------

Bull Pens:
St.Louis 9 Er's their last 20.2 innings for a 3.92 Era
Boston 32 Er's their last 45.2 6.31 Era

PlayOff Hitting:
St.Louis .264 with 11 Hr's
Boston .278 with 10 Hr's

Bull Pens:
St.Louis 5.12 Era with 1.31 WHIP
Boston 5.97 Era with 2.10 WHIP

---------------------------------------------------------

Going with Boston here.
Hard to fade Boston's 16-2 record at Home in Schilling Starts.
Schilling 13-3 At Fenway Career
Morris is on a 1-6 Quality Start run
Morris has allowed 17 BaseRunner's in 10.0 innings this Post Season
for a 5.40 Era and 1.70 WHIP
Morris 6.02 Era and .302 Average Allowed On The Road

Hedging Previous Action: $245 on Cleveland +7.5 Over Philadelphia

gl,

baz
http://imagesavers.com/041024/1098643126.JPG

[DJTranks]

GL BAZ!!

[bazanster2]

1/4 Unit:
Boston(Martinez)+124 Over St.Louis(Suppan)

================================================== ====
Martinez(24-12 Quality Start Record)
16-9 with 3.90 Era(94 Er's/217.0 innings)
3-3 with 3.21 Era(20 Er's/56.0 innings)1.14 WHIP and .209 Average Allowed Career vs.St.Louis
7-6 with 4.61 Era(54 Er's/105.1 innings)1.32 WHIP and .257 Average Allowed Away This Season
3-1 with 3.24 Era(15 Er's/41.2 innings)1.01 WHIP and .205 Average Allowed Career at Busch
5-2 with 3.73 Era(30 Er's/72.1 innings) Career PostSeason
182-76 with 2.71 Era(691 Er's/2296.0 innings) MLB Career

Note: take away Martinez vs. the Yankees this season,
his Era falls from 3.90 to 3.59 Era
---------------------------------------------------------

Suppan(20-14 Quality Start Record)
Suppan on 4-1 Quality Start run, but 8-9 Quality Starts his last 17
16-9 with 4.16 Era(87 Er's/188.0 innings) This Season
6-8 with 4.75 Era(51 Er's/96.2 innings)1.52 WHIP and .299 Average Home Away This Year
2-3 with 5.02 Era(24 Er's/43.0 innings)1.37 WHIP and .259 Average Allowed Career vs. Boston
8-9 with 4.55 Era(62 Er's/122.2 innings)1.48 WHIP and .295 Averge Allowed Career at Busch
2-1 with 2.84 Era(6 Er's/19.0 innings) Career PostSeason
78-84 Era(790 Er's/1480.1 innings) MLB Career

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Boston hitting .287 with 16 HR's and averaging 6.9 runs a game PostSeason
St.Louis hitting .252 with 19 HR's and averaging 5.1 Runs a game PostSeason

---------------------------------------------------------------
Boston Pitching Post Season: 9-3 with 5.09 Era (97 K's/52 BB's)
St.Louis Pitching Post Season:7-6 with 4.57 Era (70 K's/54 BB's)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bull Pens:
Boston 23 Er's their last 31.0 innings for a 6.60 Era with a 1.62 WHIP
St.Louis 15 Er's their last 34.0 innings for a 4.50 Era with a 1.35 WHIP

Martinez has good number against Womack,Rolen,Edmonds and Sanders.
Walker 3-11 .272 and Matheny 2 for 3 .667
After getting roughed up by the Yankees, looking for Pedro to come out strong.
The Turf is going to accent Cardinal speed and superior fielding.
Boston's pen is going to have to step and close out the game.
Suppan hasn't been that impressive at Home.
Taking the dog here.

Umpire Gorman 24-10 Under and 8-1-1 Under the last 10.
Will pass on Total

good luck,

baz

http://imagesavers.com/041026/1098818895.JPG

[bazanster2]

DJ,

Thanks, it should be a good game today.
Will Boston's Bull Pen or Fielding be able to get the
job done? We'll find out.

best of luck,

baz
:thumbs:

[beancounter]

BAZ,

you hedging the game today against anything later this week?

[bazanster2]

beancounter,

Would have like to, but didn't have enough time to
make a informed play. So at + odds, I decided to let it ride.
The last couple of days, I didn't have time to post my hedges.
I hope that all those that had positons did so.
My general stategy is to make sure that after winning the
first game, that one doesn't occur a loss.
Often, I bet the would be profits leaving a situation of either
recouping my intial bet or winning a good profit.
I try to split the profit's in the second game if undecided
about the outcome. Another good option is to "lean"
towards the more probable victor.
On occassion with a strong play, I may gamble a bit
and wager where there may even be a small loss.
A stategy of "Small and often fills the purse"
Not that one can't let it ride either.
Just trying to follow my betting intincts.
Looking for a higher scoring kind of game.
St.Louis is an awefully good team to get swept.
Very long odds that St.Louis will come back.
But 4 game winning and lossing streaks are common.
It will be straight up hill as they have to pass though
Schilling and Martinez again.

In Major Sports that have 7 game Series,
teams down 0-3 have won the Series 3 times
and lost 236 times. Or 1.2 % chance.

Hoping that Cardinals fight back here, but it's tough
being down 0-3.

thanks and best of luck,

baz
:prtytme:

[bazanster2]

Parlaying the following to (NFL) Indianapolis-1 Over Kansas City

1/5 Unit:

(1)St.Louis(Marquis)-120 Over Boston(Lowe)
with
St.Louis(Marquis)/Boston(Lowe) Over 9.5 {-116}

Just going with a Hunch here.

good luck,

baz

[beancounter]

baz,

thanks for the write up, so quick follow up question. in a situation that you are doing this week, with your "time hedge" being indy -1, what happens if the line doesn't move at all before gametime and is still -1? how do you hedge there? I assume your hedge would be KC +1 but then you only win your bet if indy wins by 1, right? just seems like a tough one to hit, unless you are not planning on hedging and think indy wins by more than 1.

I do similar bets, but I usually will hedge it with a fav on the ML (like I have seen you do before), then you take the dog with points and try for the "middle", with no loss occuring if it falls outside, as you have stated, but a big win if the dog covers, but doesn't win.

anyway, just wanted to get your thoughts as you are probably better at this than I am.

thanks and good luck!