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View Full Version : pick LA Monroe +2 -105 against LA Lafayette


daveheadsports
10-02-2008, 07:36 PM
Both teams are 1-3, and they may appear to be evenly matched, but my numbers say otherwise and they are unambiguous.

LA Lafayette has had to play Southern Miss and Illinois, losing to Illinois by only 3 points. LA Lafayette QB Michael Desormeaux has been solid this season, throwing 60.6% for 6.6 yards per attempt. But the strength of their offense is their running game. Both of their top running backs have rushed more than 66 times for an average of 6.5 yards per carry. But these numbers were padded against Kent St and Kansas St. Starting RB Tyrell Fenroy ran for only 20 yards against Illinois.

LA Monroe has had to face Arkansas, Auburn, and Tulane. LA Monroe senior QB Kinsmon Lancaster has been solid this season, throwing five touchdowns and just one interception. He has thrown 58.5% for 772 yards total and 6.1 yards per attempt. Starting RB Frank Goodin has rushed 46 times this season for an average gain of 5.2 yards per carry. LA Monroe's offense has sputtered, allowing 10 sacks in only 4 games, and converting only 13 of 54 third downs. LA Monroe needs to lean more on its running game.

Last season, LA Monroe went on the road to beat LA Lafayette 17-11.

LA Lafayette starting WR Derrick Smith is out (ankle).

LA Monroe starting DB James Truxillo is out (knee), starting DE Alaric Coleman is out (back), DE Jameson Jordan is uncertain (knee), and WR LaGregory Sapp is out for the season (academics).

Marcus Langdon
10-04-2008, 08:40 AM
I really have to dis-agree with this play... I think ULL is one of the strongest plays on the board. They have both played against decent teams and weak teams but overall ULL has a much much better offense.

I find it hard to see ULM scoring more than 28 pts on anyone and I find it even harder to see ULL scoring less than 28 on any Sunbelt team they have left. Arkansas State is probably the best team in the conference but ULL is not far behind.

I am quite confident that ULL will win this one outright and by more than a TD.