footballwinner999
09-12-2008, 12:23 AM
1. Betting with the heart rather than their head. You only need to hit 53% of your bets to break even after accounting for the spread. Why then do people load up and bet their week’s pay on their favorite team? How can they be objective? If you want to justify your loyalty to your favorite team with your wallet, buy the team’s T shirt, but don’t ever bet on your favorite team. There are many statistical methods that win much higher than 53%. Make an investment with a track record when you wager.
2. Listening to the so called pundits. The most widely read sports journalist on the Internet is Bill Simmons. Anyone that has read his columns can attest that Simmons is a brilliant wit with a very savvy knowledge of all sports. In addition Simmons has a lot of connections with people in the know, really. The last 2 NFL Seasons, Simmons entered into a head to head betting competition…. and lost. There is no harm in that, except that the opposition was his wife, both seasons with admittedly little or no knowledge of football. She bets on the 49ers because that is how old her uncle is. Why doesn’t the Swami or Chris Mortensen track their football picks? Because they don’t want to show us how they underperform..
3. Weather conditions. No one can predict the weather, let alone how a given team is going to perform on a given field. If a passing – dome team is playing outside in the cold in December, the odds makers who set the lines know the team shouldn’t play as well. There is no way to outguess them with this strategy.
4. Betting the “degenerate game” When Boise State plays the late game against Oregon, and someone calls the sports book and asks “who is playing?” and then decides to bet, that is a disaster waiting to happen. People need to bet using past statistical evidence, not on Oregon because they like Ducks and need something to watch to elapse the boredom of staying home on a Saturday night.
5. Playing catch-up. Don’t load up on the Sunday night game because you lost that day and can’t afford the loss. Oddsmakers know this happens and they have been known to set the Sunday night line on a popular team extra high to account for gamblers playing catch up. Go into every weekend with a proven strategy to win money and stick to it.
6. Playing parlays – Do the math. They don’t work. If professional gamblers stay away from them so should you. Instead use statistically proven methods to play single game straight bets and over/unders
7. Playing teasers – They look easy. History suggests they are not…
2. Listening to the so called pundits. The most widely read sports journalist on the Internet is Bill Simmons. Anyone that has read his columns can attest that Simmons is a brilliant wit with a very savvy knowledge of all sports. In addition Simmons has a lot of connections with people in the know, really. The last 2 NFL Seasons, Simmons entered into a head to head betting competition…. and lost. There is no harm in that, except that the opposition was his wife, both seasons with admittedly little or no knowledge of football. She bets on the 49ers because that is how old her uncle is. Why doesn’t the Swami or Chris Mortensen track their football picks? Because they don’t want to show us how they underperform..
3. Weather conditions. No one can predict the weather, let alone how a given team is going to perform on a given field. If a passing – dome team is playing outside in the cold in December, the odds makers who set the lines know the team shouldn’t play as well. There is no way to outguess them with this strategy.
4. Betting the “degenerate game” When Boise State plays the late game against Oregon, and someone calls the sports book and asks “who is playing?” and then decides to bet, that is a disaster waiting to happen. People need to bet using past statistical evidence, not on Oregon because they like Ducks and need something to watch to elapse the boredom of staying home on a Saturday night.
5. Playing catch-up. Don’t load up on the Sunday night game because you lost that day and can’t afford the loss. Oddsmakers know this happens and they have been known to set the Sunday night line on a popular team extra high to account for gamblers playing catch up. Go into every weekend with a proven strategy to win money and stick to it.
6. Playing parlays – Do the math. They don’t work. If professional gamblers stay away from them so should you. Instead use statistically proven methods to play single game straight bets and over/unders
7. Playing teasers – They look easy. History suggests they are not…