Super Bowl Picks....

[Dances With Money]

Hey fellas, I just can't decide which way to go, now. I was thinking Giants with a 14 point spread, but now at 11.5 in some places, I might just peel over and take the Patriots. I'm not sure that the last game these two played is indicative of how this game will go. I hate the Giants, but they have been playing inspired football and I don't know how that won't be the case in the biggest game of their lives.

All the numbers point to the Patriots, especially coming off of a bye week heading in - their coaching staff is the craftiest bunch of old guys in the league, and rarely do they faulter when they have that extra time to prepare.

But everyone thinks the Giants don't have a chance, and while I am one of those people, you have to think the G-Men will play better because of that common belief. Remember, Super Bowls usually aren't close, though they have been in the last few years. If one team wins big, there's no way it's the Giants. Coming out and blowing out the Patriots just doesn't seem like an option, right?

The Giants, on the other hand, could finally hit their reality wall as Eli starts throwing picks like a Ryan Leaf incarnate, and the fumbles they've been having start to roll to the Patriots instead of back to them.

Tough decisions to be made, do you guys have any bright ideas on this one? I'd love a little help from my friends...

[tiggy1146]

Dances,

I am having a tough time with this one as well. On the other hand, I am opposite of you, I hate the Pats. I would love to see the perfect season ended. However, it is hard to ignore their talent and execution. Everyone says the Giants don't have a chance. The line is dropping, which means the book wants you to take the Pats. Why is that? Everytime I think about this game the word "teaser" keeps popping up. Giants + 2 touchdowns and under 57. However, I haven't pulled the trigger yet. The only bet I am sure of is "tails."

[Dances With Money]

Thanks man, I'm a tails guy as well - "Tails never fails" as I always liked to say when the referee asked me what we'd like...

See, I used to hate the Patriots, as far back as I can remember - those smug "our team is better than your team" smiles draped across their faces - the winning, the way they always lucked out and got the call - Almost like Duke Basketball.

However, this team is magic, and I've decided that I am sick and tired of all those jerk-off Dolphins getting interviewed every single day of the week, and watching them spout off about how "We're the best team ever, and until someone's even on our door step, I don't even care." C'mon, like they don't care, let's be honest. Of course they care, that's all they have going for them right now. I'm tired of it. I don't care about them. Records like this are incomparable anyway - if the Pats win, at least I won't have to see too many more of those idiots on ESPN running their lips and acting like they discovered the wheel.

So, yeah, i'm rooting for the Pats - plus, I hate the Giants. I just can't get behind a team whose coach looks like a sick, chubby elf from Lord of the Rings.

As for the line, I like your teaser - but if anything could happen, the Giants could get run out of town. THe way I figure, there's no safe bet here.

[tiggy1146]

Well.............Plex made the IDIOT move.

Nice call A-Hole. Put out a challenge that you have nothing to do with. Put it all on the Defense, which you are no part of. What a Jackass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I want the Giants to win.....probably won't happen. At least a close game.

Now you have some dumbassed wide receiver making promises for the defense.

Geeeeee, I bet the Pats aren't fired up about this one.

This changes everything. Why would he shoot his mouth off?

Your thoughts guys?........................................

[Dances With Money]

I have to be honest here... I don't think Plax's comments do anything for this game - however, I do think the Pats will slaughter the Giants, but I thought that would happen anyway - why? Here it is; Everyone now expects Eli to have a good game and keep his team in it. Fat chance. He's played well for 4 straight weeks where nobody expected a freaking thing from him. Well, people are starting to talk about how he's "ahead of his brother at this point in his career" - c'mon. Does anyone really believe that jack? Pats will win big in this one, I've really wavered on this, but now I'm sticking with the Pats big time.

[tiggy1146]

Hey Dances.........

Just got a call from one of my insiders.

He says take the points. I am not sure what to make of it. I know you love the Pats, but he says take the points.

This game is so hard to call. I am struggling with it. I know you said that you are on the Pats. Do you know where the public money is? I have alway been a fan of going against the public.

Let me know what you think.

T

[Dances With Money]

From what I hear, the money is even. Something absurd, like 64% of the public is taking the New York Football Giants, however, the Patriots' backers are putting more money down on their bets, hence the even distribution. From what I've learned, going against the public only wins about 50% of the time. That means, you have to pick and choose your games. I don't know for sure, but I'd imagine that Super Bowl Favorites lose ATS more often than not. It's a tough game to call for me, but when I look at chances, I'd say there's a way better chance that the Patriots blow out the Giants, and SUper Bowls aren't always close affairs.

Good luck in any direction you run, and thanks for the info - I'm still not 100% sure about this one - lets put it this way, it wouldn't be one of my Best Bets of the Week....


Good Luck!

DancesWithMoney

[Dances With Money]

On the other hand, I feel a lot like the "average bettor" right now. I mean, look at the Giants' season, how many games have they gotten blown out in? You could look at just scores alone and tell me that they've been blown out in 3 games (Dallas, Green Bay, and Minnesota) but in reality, the Giants have been blown out in just one game all year long, and that was against a smoking hot Vikings squad. They were down just 3 headed into the final minutes against Dallas in Week 1, but Tony Romo through a risky touchdown pass with just minutes left, probably a risk not worth taking. Against Green Bay in week 2? The game was within a score when the 4th quarter started, and if it weren't for some Eli-ish throws that went for picks, that game would have been tight too.

So, there's a little pulling me over to the Giants. They play tight with everyone - they have been playing elite football, and the Patriots haven't played well ATS in the last half of the year.

However, I just think the Pats are going to win, and win big - for whatever that means. The one thing that keeps my money on New England is the fact that the 33% of bettors riding with the favorites are laying even money with the 66%, that makes me think the "public" is rolling with the Giants, and the "smart guys" are laying big bank on New England.

LIke I said earlier, this one is anyone's guess - but after exploring it all I feel about even - so I'll ride with my gut.

As is, my gut isn't as tight as it once was, but I'll ride with it nonetheless - pass the steak - lets go PATS!

[tiggy1146]

Well,

I am like a fish on the sidewalk on this one. Flip floppin everywhere.

I just checked sportsbook.com and it does look like the public is betting the G men. I told myself that I will go against the public. I hate to root for the Pats, but it looks like thats what it has come to. I like the under as well. And again, my favorite bet is TAILS TAILS TAILS.

Best of luck to you today. Been a fun season. Can't wait til August..............

[Brock]

I bet about ten days ago. Got a two team er.
NE -11.5 and over 51.5