EdwardHaney Davis Cup & WTA - Paris, Pattaya City

[EdwardHaney]

This will probably be a rather quiet week from me. Most of my damage normally comes from the ATP, and the only thing on the schedule this week comes from the WTA and also Davis Cup, so I'll likely be selective.

Paris is an indoor greenset surface, Tier II event. Pattaya City is an outdoor hardcourt tournament, it's Tier IV. Last year the Pattaya City event was really fucked up with both the #1 and #2 seeds losing in the 1st round.

I'm not going to rush into any plays early in the week. I'll come back later on if I feel like I have a read on something.

Good luck everybody!!

[WayneWonder]

As much as it pains me to do so...I am going to change m strategy slightly this week and bet some heavy chalk. I saw how profitable it was last week for some members of this board...esp WTA. I also like the idea Ed set forth about being done for the week after reaching 5 units no matter what. So with that said the first play this week is....

Dinara Safina vs Michaella Krajicek

Dinara Safina -425

Risking 17 units to win 4:confused: :confused:

[WayneWonder]

Safina won 6-4, 7-5!!!

WTD: 1-0 (+4.00 units)

[EdwardHaney]

TUESDAY



WOMEN (0-0, +0.00 UNITS)

Sun +146 over Dulko
Oprandi -164 over Savchuk
Llagostera Vives +310 over Bartoli
Bardina -133 over Bammer

[WayneWonder]

Wed. Plays

Bremond -110 2 units

[EdwardHaney]

WEDNESDAY



WOMEN (1-3, -2.33 UNITS)

Kuznetsova -315 over Srebotnik

[WayneWonder]

Bremond lost 2-6, 7-5.

She was up 5-1 in the second and lost!!! I guess she was saving energy for her doubles match later in the day.

WTD: 1-1 (+2.00 units)

Adding Kuznetsova -225 5 units

[WayneWonder]

Kuznetsova won 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(4)!!!

Matches have been a lot tighter than I would like (see Dinara Safina) but a win is a win.

WTD: 2-1 (+4.22 UNITS)

Also tracking how many three set matches there are on the womens side this week. I will split them into two categories, one in which the favorites won and another in which the dogs won. I will also keep note of whether or not the dog won the first set despite losing the match. This is to test my theory that it may be more profitable betting on a dog to win the first set than the entire match as some of the top players get down a set only to turn it on and destroy the lesser player in the final two sets, spoiling what could have been a nice payday.


Here goes....

Loit def Danildou 7-6(7), 6-7(1), 6-4 Loit favored and won 1st set

Safarova def Pironkova 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3 Safarova fave and won 1st set
----------------------------------
Bychkova def Schnyder 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 Bychkova dog but lost 1st set
----------------------------------
Henin def Loit 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 Henin favored and lost 1st set

Kuznetsova def Srebotnik 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(4) Kuznetsova fave and lost 1st set

Safina won 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(5) Safina fave and lost 1st set

[EdwardHaney]

THURSDAY



WOMEN (2-3, -1.33 UNITS)

Obziler +102 over Nakamura
King -180 over Pratt
Bartoli -315 over Sucha

[dunedan]

GL on your picks, EH.

I'm playing King also, but I can't bring myself to back Bartoli. Marion hasn't shown the same form to start '07 that she had to finsh '06.

[EdwardHaney]

Originally posted by dunedan
GL on your picks, EH.

I'm playing King also, but I can't bring myself to back Bartoli. Marion hasn't shown the same form to start '07 that she had to finsh '06.


Good luck dunedan,


maybe King will win for us :thumbs:

[BeyondTheGame]

Good Luck with your plays today EH.

Would like to know your reasoning on King and Obziler though mate..

Cheers

[EdwardHaney]

King loses, Bartoli loses, Obziler of all people wins. That was really careless of me to play Bartoli, that was easily my most boneheaded play of the year :bang:


Still plenty of time to recover from this

[EdwardHaney]

FRIDAY



WOMEN (3-5, -5.28 UNITS)

Bammer -120 over Sucha
Peng -228 over Obziler
Mirza -146 over Santangelo
Dulko +140 over Pratt


DAVIS CUP (0-0 +0.00 UNITS)

O. Rochus -400 over Guccione
Melzer -117 over Canas

[WayneWonder]

Ed...great job sweeping the board at Pattaya this morning :prtytme:

I will use those profits to make a few Davis Cup plays...

Blake +135 over Berdych....3 units

Ljubicic -330 over Becker...9.9 units

[bigrod82]

Yeah great job last night Ed, your tennis picks are getting pretty good. BTW anybody know where Corey's been, I really miss tailing his picks.

[EdwardHaney]

Rochus getting owned by Guccione so far...NOT looking good.

This is my first time betting Davis Cup matches so I'll probably get owned. If Rochus doesn't come back and win I'm gonna have an uphill battle this weekend.

[EdwardHaney]

Rochus turns it around nicely to win in 4. Melzer lost to Canas as the Argentine's looked strong (really for the first time all year).

Kicking myself for not playing Andreev and or Safin though. So close to pulling the trigger on Andreev and he dominated :bang:


And thanks WW and BR for the kind words...WW any updates on the 3 set matches are you still tracking those?

[BeyondTheGame]

Both of those matches were very strange the Hewitt and Guccione match. There were sooo many break points for Hewitt and Guccione (Espically in the 2nd Set) - That Rochus and Kristof were able to save.

[EdwardHaney]

Now to get out of the red for the week...


SATURDAY



WOMEN (7-5, -0.88 UNITS)

Peng -188 over Bammer
Mirza -180 over Dulko
Henin -390 over Safarova
Mauresmo -145 over Petrova



DAVIS CUP (1-1 -0.17 UNITS)

(none)

[WayneWonder]

Ed, I have still been tracking the 3 set matches his week and have two more to add.


Henin def Golovin 6-2 3-6 6-3....She was the fave and won the 1st set

Chakvetadze def A Medina Garrigues 4-6 6-4 6-4....She was the fave and lost the 1st set

Since this is such a small sample (only one tournament) it is hard to gain much from this information. OB pointed me to a great site a couple of weeks ago though which does a great job of breaking down three set matches and % of 1st set or 2nd sets won for the top 50 players in the world. Very thorough and helpful. Here is a link.



http://home17.inet.tele.dk/wta/

If you click sitemap, then scroll to the bottom of the page there is a heading called various pages. Under that heading is a link to three-set matches. Click that and you will find a lot of good info.

[WayneWonder]

WTA Open Gaz de France - Final Matchup

Lucie Safarova +120 over Petrova 5 units

Safarova looked unflappable against former no. 1 player in the world JHH, battling back in both sets to seal a spot in the finals. She saved three match points in the first set before erasing a 4-2 deficit in the second.

Meanwhile Petrova has to be exhausted from her marathon match against Mauresmo. Straight after the two-hour, 42-minute duel, the Russian withdrew from her semi in the doubles draw due to dizziness.

Petrova holds a 2-0 h2h advantage over Safarova, but Lucie has been gaining confidence with each big win. She has beaten three top 10 players this week and is looking to improve on a 3-1 career finals record. Look for Lucie to get it done against an exhausted Petrova tomorrow.

******

Also, wanted to update three set matches in Paris this week.

Petrova def Mauresmo 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(7) She was the dog and she lost the first set.

[EdwardHaney]

just got back into town and checking the scores for today for the 1st time....


:bang:

[EdwardHaney]

WEEKLY RESULTS
MEN (1-1 -0.17 UNITS, -$8.50)
WOMEN (7-9, -9.91 UNITS, -$495.50)


YEAR TO DATE RESULTS
MEN (30-19, +17.35 UNITS, $867.50)
WOMEN (28-19, -3.09 UNITS, -$154.50)