GoBigOrGoHome
02-04-2007, 02:54 PM
Colts QB Peyton Manning is the master of the no-huddle offense. He does a good job of not letting the opposing team substitute players or make quick adjustments. Manning does not always check to a different play at the line of scrimmage, but sometimes will use a dummy audible to trick the defense.
The Colts' offense has excelled in the red zone. The Colts have failed to score on only five drives into the red zone all season. Not only can the Colts pass for touchdowns in the red zone, but they have a very good running game with Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting Manning and opening running lanes for both backs. Manning and the Colts are deadly on third down in the red zone, converting an impressive 61 percent of the third downs into first downs or touchdowns. The NFL average is just 38 percent while the playoff average is 41 percent.
One of the key reasons the Colts advanced to the Super Bowl is their defense's total reversal of fortune in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Colts' defense allowed 173 rushing yards a game and 5.3 yards per carry. In three playoff games, the Colts have allowed just 73 rushing yards and a 3.6-yard average. The Colts' defense has been playing more eight-man fronts by inserting a safety in run support. Stopping the run, and forcing teams to pass, plays into the strengths of this Colts defense, which excels at rushing the quarterback.
The Colts have also improved on third-down defense in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Colts were allowing a 47 percent conversion rate, which was near the bottom of the NFL. During the playoffs, they are holding opponents to a 22 percent conversion rate by mixing in some zone dogs and playing more man-to-man coverage with safety Bob Sanders roaming the short middle area of the field and reading the quarterback's eyes. Look for the Colts to mix in some Cover 2 to keep Bears quarterback Rex Grossman off balance.
Look for the Bears to try to establish the run early in an attempt to keep the Colts' offense off the field. The Bears like to run the ball close to 60 percent of the time on first down. They use an outside zone running scheme that can get Thomas Jones on the edge. Jones, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the playoffs, will test the Colts' run defense. Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner will rotate his personnel groupings to try to find a weakness in the Colts' defensive personnel. Turner will go to some three-wide receiver packages early to soften up Indy's run defense.
If the Bears can establish the run, it will force the Colts to play more eight-man fronts, which will open up Chicago's play-action package. Bernard Berrian has been the most productive receiver for the Bears on first down, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. Unheralded tight end Desmond Clark has seen a number of balls thrown his way on first down and is averaging 14.5 yards a catch. With the Colts concentrating on Muhsin Muhammad and Berrian, look for Clark's number to be called a lot, especially if the Colts blitz, because he most likely will be the hot receiver.
The fact that the Colts are suddenly playing solid third-down defense does not bode well for the Bears, who have seen their conversion rate drop in the playoffs. In two playoff games, the Bears are converting 30 percent of their third downs because teams are getting pressure on Grossman. With Berrian, Muhammad and Clark drawing the most attention on third down, Grossman often turns to No. 3 receiver Rashied Davis.
The Bears are deep at corner with Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman and nickel corner Ricky Manning Jr. (who could start on most teams). Tillman, the best of the three, will cover Colts No. 1 receiver Marvin Harrison. Look for defensive coordinator Ron Rivera to call more man-to-man defenses that can give him a good number count in the box for the run as well as getting tight coverage on the outside. A key matchup will be LB Lance Briggs on Colts tight end Dallas Clark. In the Bears' man cover scheme, Briggs will have help inside short and deep. The key for Briggs is to not let Clark beat him to the outside.
Third down will be a good matchup. The Colts' offense ranked No. 1 in the regular season at converting on third down (56.1 percent). The Bears ranked second in defending on third down, allowing a 31 percent conversion rate. Look for the Bears to mix their coverages by alternating their base Cover 2 scheme with a man-to-man scheme that utilizes LB Brian Urlacher in the short middle area of the field. This will allow the Bears to put a safety on tight end Clark with help inside. Urlacher does an excellent job of reading the quarterback's eyes and getting a jump on the ball.
Special Teams
The Bears' Devin Hester had a record six returns for touchdowns this season and will look to get some big returns against the Colts' suspect coverage units. The Colts must do a good job of getting off blocks and maintaining lane discipline by not giving Hester any creases to run through. Colts punter Hunter Smith is averaging a poor 34.5 net yards per punt. The Colts' punt cover unit is giving up 13.1 yards a return.
Matchups
• Colts TE Dallas Clark vs. Bears OLB Lance Briggs
• Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Bears CB Nathan Vasher
• Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Bears LT John Tait
• Bears DE Mark Anderson vs. Colts LT Tarik Glenn
• Bears returner Devin Hester vs. Colts coverage units
Overview
Neither of these franchises has been to the Super Bowl in quite some time, but this figures to be an excellent matchup. The Bears will surely try to run the ball to dominate the time of possession and lighten the load on Rex Grossman. Although Peyton Manning has not excelled in the postseason throughout his career, Indianapolis clearly has a major advantage in the quarterback comparison, which obviously could be crucial on such a big stage.
On defense, both teams use the Tampa 2 as their base look, but expect to see a variety of coverages and blitzes. The Bears have superior special teams, and Devin Hester can change a game in a way few players can. However, the Colts punt less than any team in the league and have a special teams X factor of their own in kicker Adam Vinatieri -- a true postseason superstar. Both teams have a lot of momentum and are extremely well-coached, but I think Indianapolis will prevail thanks largely to its advantage at quarterback.
Prediction: Colts 28, Bears 24
The Colts' offense has excelled in the red zone. The Colts have failed to score on only five drives into the red zone all season. Not only can the Colts pass for touchdowns in the red zone, but they have a very good running game with Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting Manning and opening running lanes for both backs. Manning and the Colts are deadly on third down in the red zone, converting an impressive 61 percent of the third downs into first downs or touchdowns. The NFL average is just 38 percent while the playoff average is 41 percent.
One of the key reasons the Colts advanced to the Super Bowl is their defense's total reversal of fortune in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Colts' defense allowed 173 rushing yards a game and 5.3 yards per carry. In three playoff games, the Colts have allowed just 73 rushing yards and a 3.6-yard average. The Colts' defense has been playing more eight-man fronts by inserting a safety in run support. Stopping the run, and forcing teams to pass, plays into the strengths of this Colts defense, which excels at rushing the quarterback.
The Colts have also improved on third-down defense in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Colts were allowing a 47 percent conversion rate, which was near the bottom of the NFL. During the playoffs, they are holding opponents to a 22 percent conversion rate by mixing in some zone dogs and playing more man-to-man coverage with safety Bob Sanders roaming the short middle area of the field and reading the quarterback's eyes. Look for the Colts to mix in some Cover 2 to keep Bears quarterback Rex Grossman off balance.
Look for the Bears to try to establish the run early in an attempt to keep the Colts' offense off the field. The Bears like to run the ball close to 60 percent of the time on first down. They use an outside zone running scheme that can get Thomas Jones on the edge. Jones, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the playoffs, will test the Colts' run defense. Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner will rotate his personnel groupings to try to find a weakness in the Colts' defensive personnel. Turner will go to some three-wide receiver packages early to soften up Indy's run defense.
If the Bears can establish the run, it will force the Colts to play more eight-man fronts, which will open up Chicago's play-action package. Bernard Berrian has been the most productive receiver for the Bears on first down, averaging 15.7 yards per catch. Unheralded tight end Desmond Clark has seen a number of balls thrown his way on first down and is averaging 14.5 yards a catch. With the Colts concentrating on Muhsin Muhammad and Berrian, look for Clark's number to be called a lot, especially if the Colts blitz, because he most likely will be the hot receiver.
The fact that the Colts are suddenly playing solid third-down defense does not bode well for the Bears, who have seen their conversion rate drop in the playoffs. In two playoff games, the Bears are converting 30 percent of their third downs because teams are getting pressure on Grossman. With Berrian, Muhammad and Clark drawing the most attention on third down, Grossman often turns to No. 3 receiver Rashied Davis.
The Bears are deep at corner with Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman and nickel corner Ricky Manning Jr. (who could start on most teams). Tillman, the best of the three, will cover Colts No. 1 receiver Marvin Harrison. Look for defensive coordinator Ron Rivera to call more man-to-man defenses that can give him a good number count in the box for the run as well as getting tight coverage on the outside. A key matchup will be LB Lance Briggs on Colts tight end Dallas Clark. In the Bears' man cover scheme, Briggs will have help inside short and deep. The key for Briggs is to not let Clark beat him to the outside.
Third down will be a good matchup. The Colts' offense ranked No. 1 in the regular season at converting on third down (56.1 percent). The Bears ranked second in defending on third down, allowing a 31 percent conversion rate. Look for the Bears to mix their coverages by alternating their base Cover 2 scheme with a man-to-man scheme that utilizes LB Brian Urlacher in the short middle area of the field. This will allow the Bears to put a safety on tight end Clark with help inside. Urlacher does an excellent job of reading the quarterback's eyes and getting a jump on the ball.
Special Teams
The Bears' Devin Hester had a record six returns for touchdowns this season and will look to get some big returns against the Colts' suspect coverage units. The Colts must do a good job of getting off blocks and maintaining lane discipline by not giving Hester any creases to run through. Colts punter Hunter Smith is averaging a poor 34.5 net yards per punt. The Colts' punt cover unit is giving up 13.1 yards a return.
Matchups
• Colts TE Dallas Clark vs. Bears OLB Lance Briggs
• Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Bears CB Nathan Vasher
• Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Bears LT John Tait
• Bears DE Mark Anderson vs. Colts LT Tarik Glenn
• Bears returner Devin Hester vs. Colts coverage units
Overview
Neither of these franchises has been to the Super Bowl in quite some time, but this figures to be an excellent matchup. The Bears will surely try to run the ball to dominate the time of possession and lighten the load on Rex Grossman. Although Peyton Manning has not excelled in the postseason throughout his career, Indianapolis clearly has a major advantage in the quarterback comparison, which obviously could be crucial on such a big stage.
On defense, both teams use the Tampa 2 as their base look, but expect to see a variety of coverages and blitzes. The Bears have superior special teams, and Devin Hester can change a game in a way few players can. However, the Colts punt less than any team in the league and have a special teams X factor of their own in kicker Adam Vinatieri -- a true postseason superstar. Both teams have a lot of momentum and are extremely well-coached, but I think Indianapolis will prevail thanks largely to its advantage at quarterback.
Prediction: Colts 28, Bears 24