GameBreaker
02-04-2007, 01:54 PM
Sunday Feb 4th
Super Bowl XLI
Chicago-Indianapolis Under 48.5 This one actually has alot in common with last year's Super Bowl winner on the Steelers & Seahawks to go Under 47 (21-10 final). We have teams coming off high scoring performances and a game where casual bettors automatically want to bet the Over. That inflates the line and adds value before anything else is taken into account. Manning and the Colts offense will get hyped but I like the fact we have 2 defenses that are capable of limiting their opponents. The Bears D has gotten healthier which showed vs the Saints. More importantly, the Colts D has picked it up significantly down the stretch. The Bears put up alot of points last week but alot was due to turnovers, field position, and a defense that was giving up big plays all year. With Indy's improved run D and the way they play their safeties (keeping everything in front of them), I expect the Colts to match-up very well vs the Bears offense. I have do doubt Dungy will force Grossman to beat them and I don't think Rex will have a great deal of success. He's not anywhere in Tom Brady's league so don't be swayed by last week's shootout. I expect Dungy to be turnover conscious vs this Bears D and pound the football a fair bit as he's been doing lately. If Dungy is allowed to be relatively conservative because his D plays well (which I think they will) this game will stay Under by a good margin. As well as Manning played last week, the Colts offense hasn't been as good away from home (resulting in a high % of Unders) and they will be on grass which takes a bit of the edge off. Chicago has a fast defense, a defensive minded coach, a young QB, and an offense that doesn't match up particularly well. I expect the running games of both sides to be emphasized and neither D is overmatched. As a final note the line has been set as if we'll have ideal weather. So we may get an added bonus if the weather isn't perfect for gametime. Play Under 48.5 for a 3* play (lay 1 unit).
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Super Bowl Prop Wagers
I'm recommending that you don't go overboard with prop wagering, both in the number that you play and the amounts wagered. They can spice up the game but some people have a tendency to put alot of action on these picks. It's especially dangerous when they're all connected to who you think will win the game. Have fun with any you do play and unless one totally stands out to you, recreational wager sizes usually is the way to go.
Personally, I'll be wagering slightly over 1 unit combined on all of the 5 props below to add some excitement to the game without alot of risk. The lines shown are from BetCris and are pretty typical of the numbers seen at several online sportsbooks.
#1. Prop: Which half will more points be scored?
Pick: 2nd half -130
In the past 8 Super Bowls, ALL had higher scoring 2nd halves and only once was it actually close. Starting with last year here are the 2nd half-1st half scores: 21-10, 31-14, 37-24, 46-23, 20-17, 31-10, 30-9, 30-23. That averages out to +14.5 points per game and almost DOUBLE the points in the 2nd half compared to the first. This makes sense from a common sense perspective as teams go all out for 60 minutes and the team trailing often has to be aggressive. That leads to potential big offensive plays or big mistakes. A heck of a value in my opinion laying only -130 given the past results and reasoning behind it. Lay 0.33 units to win 0.25 units
#2. Prop: Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1st qtr
Pick: NO +145
I think the D's will play better than expected and I expect Chicago in particular to run the football early with a young QB at the controls. Looking back at Super Bowl history, 6 of the past 7 Super Bowls did NOT have a score in the 1st 7:30. In the past 3 Super Bowls it's taken +14 minutes before the first score. I think that says alot about conservative play-calling and not wanting to make an early mistake. Lots of players talk about having the "jitters" early and I suspect that runs through the minds of the coaches. Luck plays a role but it's obvious the books try to take advantage of the casual bettor with this prop. A good value at + money. Lay 0.2 units to win 0.29 units
#3. Prop: Will the team that scores first win the game?
Pick: NO +160
A value play. You would think that 1st score would have a great deal of significance but it actually hasn't. In the past 9 Super Bowls the team that has scored 1st has won the game only 3 times (33%). Underdog Chicago's FG unit adds to the value. I guarantee you that the casual bettor has no idea that "Yes - 1st team that scores wins the game" at -200 is a bad deal. I think either of these teams could overcome giving up an early score and +160 is an attractive price. Lay 0.2 units to win 0.32 units
#4. Prop: Will the Bears win by a FG in OT?
Pick: Yes +2000
A total longshot for those looking for a low risk-high reward type of play. But with a reasonably competive spread of -7 and a good Chicago kicker in Gould this seems better than a 20-1 shot. Just to compare, the "will there be OT" prop is +700 YES. As a side note, 3 of the last 5 Supr Bowls have been settled by a FG. Lay 0.05 units to win 1.0 unit
Saturday addition:
#5. Prop: First Half Total
Pick: Under 24 -115
I was tempted to rate the Under 48.5 pick as a 4* or higher but I like the value we get by playing it as a 3* and then making an additional play on the 1st half Under. This is also in line with Prop #1 above with the 1st half being lower scoring than the 2nd half. Only once in the past 8 years has the 1st half scoring reached 24 points and none have gone over this mark. In fact, 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls have seen 17 or less scored in the 1st half. There are logical reasons why this happens and with the weather being potentially less than ideal (possible rain showers and winds at approx 15 MPH as of Saturday's forecast) I can see the coaches inclined to be conservative like usual. Since we already have other money in play tied into a low 1st half score I'll keep this wager fairly conservative. FYI, there are also significant betting numbers on the game indicating big money on the Under and casual bettors on the Over. Lay 0.25 units to win 0.22 units
Super Bowl XLI
Chicago-Indianapolis Under 48.5 This one actually has alot in common with last year's Super Bowl winner on the Steelers & Seahawks to go Under 47 (21-10 final). We have teams coming off high scoring performances and a game where casual bettors automatically want to bet the Over. That inflates the line and adds value before anything else is taken into account. Manning and the Colts offense will get hyped but I like the fact we have 2 defenses that are capable of limiting their opponents. The Bears D has gotten healthier which showed vs the Saints. More importantly, the Colts D has picked it up significantly down the stretch. The Bears put up alot of points last week but alot was due to turnovers, field position, and a defense that was giving up big plays all year. With Indy's improved run D and the way they play their safeties (keeping everything in front of them), I expect the Colts to match-up very well vs the Bears offense. I have do doubt Dungy will force Grossman to beat them and I don't think Rex will have a great deal of success. He's not anywhere in Tom Brady's league so don't be swayed by last week's shootout. I expect Dungy to be turnover conscious vs this Bears D and pound the football a fair bit as he's been doing lately. If Dungy is allowed to be relatively conservative because his D plays well (which I think they will) this game will stay Under by a good margin. As well as Manning played last week, the Colts offense hasn't been as good away from home (resulting in a high % of Unders) and they will be on grass which takes a bit of the edge off. Chicago has a fast defense, a defensive minded coach, a young QB, and an offense that doesn't match up particularly well. I expect the running games of both sides to be emphasized and neither D is overmatched. As a final note the line has been set as if we'll have ideal weather. So we may get an added bonus if the weather isn't perfect for gametime. Play Under 48.5 for a 3* play (lay 1 unit).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Super Bowl Prop Wagers
I'm recommending that you don't go overboard with prop wagering, both in the number that you play and the amounts wagered. They can spice up the game but some people have a tendency to put alot of action on these picks. It's especially dangerous when they're all connected to who you think will win the game. Have fun with any you do play and unless one totally stands out to you, recreational wager sizes usually is the way to go.
Personally, I'll be wagering slightly over 1 unit combined on all of the 5 props below to add some excitement to the game without alot of risk. The lines shown are from BetCris and are pretty typical of the numbers seen at several online sportsbooks.
#1. Prop: Which half will more points be scored?
Pick: 2nd half -130
In the past 8 Super Bowls, ALL had higher scoring 2nd halves and only once was it actually close. Starting with last year here are the 2nd half-1st half scores: 21-10, 31-14, 37-24, 46-23, 20-17, 31-10, 30-9, 30-23. That averages out to +14.5 points per game and almost DOUBLE the points in the 2nd half compared to the first. This makes sense from a common sense perspective as teams go all out for 60 minutes and the team trailing often has to be aggressive. That leads to potential big offensive plays or big mistakes. A heck of a value in my opinion laying only -130 given the past results and reasoning behind it. Lay 0.33 units to win 0.25 units
#2. Prop: Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1st qtr
Pick: NO +145
I think the D's will play better than expected and I expect Chicago in particular to run the football early with a young QB at the controls. Looking back at Super Bowl history, 6 of the past 7 Super Bowls did NOT have a score in the 1st 7:30. In the past 3 Super Bowls it's taken +14 minutes before the first score. I think that says alot about conservative play-calling and not wanting to make an early mistake. Lots of players talk about having the "jitters" early and I suspect that runs through the minds of the coaches. Luck plays a role but it's obvious the books try to take advantage of the casual bettor with this prop. A good value at + money. Lay 0.2 units to win 0.29 units
#3. Prop: Will the team that scores first win the game?
Pick: NO +160
A value play. You would think that 1st score would have a great deal of significance but it actually hasn't. In the past 9 Super Bowls the team that has scored 1st has won the game only 3 times (33%). Underdog Chicago's FG unit adds to the value. I guarantee you that the casual bettor has no idea that "Yes - 1st team that scores wins the game" at -200 is a bad deal. I think either of these teams could overcome giving up an early score and +160 is an attractive price. Lay 0.2 units to win 0.32 units
#4. Prop: Will the Bears win by a FG in OT?
Pick: Yes +2000
A total longshot for those looking for a low risk-high reward type of play. But with a reasonably competive spread of -7 and a good Chicago kicker in Gould this seems better than a 20-1 shot. Just to compare, the "will there be OT" prop is +700 YES. As a side note, 3 of the last 5 Supr Bowls have been settled by a FG. Lay 0.05 units to win 1.0 unit
Saturday addition:
#5. Prop: First Half Total
Pick: Under 24 -115
I was tempted to rate the Under 48.5 pick as a 4* or higher but I like the value we get by playing it as a 3* and then making an additional play on the 1st half Under. This is also in line with Prop #1 above with the 1st half being lower scoring than the 2nd half. Only once in the past 8 years has the 1st half scoring reached 24 points and none have gone over this mark. In fact, 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls have seen 17 or less scored in the 1st half. There are logical reasons why this happens and with the weather being potentially less than ideal (possible rain showers and winds at approx 15 MPH as of Saturday's forecast) I can see the coaches inclined to be conservative like usual. Since we already have other money in play tied into a low 1st half score I'll keep this wager fairly conservative. FYI, there are also significant betting numbers on the game indicating big money on the Under and casual bettors on the Over. Lay 0.25 units to win 0.22 units