***Udoggie's Super Bowl***

[Underdog88]

NFL 154-143-3 +$9293

Playoffs 11-16 +$654




Colts to win the SB+155

2 units




Posted in championship thread...not sure if I will even mess with the spread....going to play some props for fun though. Been a great NFL season, & i would usually have a big play on the SB, but honestly last week was my biggest play & I don't feel as strongly about laying 6.5 in the SB.....

[NittanyLions94]

U-Dog, do you plan to hedge at least 1 unit on the Bears ML?

[Underdog88]

No hedge for sure...if anything I will put more on the Colts ats. I don't think the Colts lose, & although the playoffs have been rough for the su winner covering the spread, I won't go against it....it has treated me well all season, & I'm a firm believer...thanks Stif. IMO if Manning gets protection, he picks this D apart. I'm sure Dungy would love to get ahead & force Grossman into passing situatons...

As far as the total, IMO it will be close, but I lean to the over. I really don't understand the Bears paired with the under plays. I would think if the Bears win, it goes over. Unless you really think the Bears DS can shut down Manning....I don't see that happening. If it's close, chances are there will be some back & forth scoring right up to the end...don't like SB unders. Just not something I like to play, & I want to see a bunch of scoring anyway :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree. I parlayed Sac Queens ML (-280) last night with Colts ML (-215), so now I have Colts ML (-101) since the Queens beat Denver. No need to mess with the spread here either....although your payout is a bit nicer.

I also agree that a Bears win (or even cover) should result in an OVER, as it's unlikely that this GOOD (not GREAT, GOOD) Bears defense is going to shut down a Colts offense who has had 2 weeks to prepare for them. If they are going to win, I think they're going to have to expose the Indy defense, because Lord knows their has been exposed in the 2nd half of the season, and I'm sure Manning has watched every single tape time and time again figuring out what teams had success with against them.

The one thing that worries me is special teams actually. The Colts don't have the greatest coverage unit, Vinitieri doesn't kick the ball deep enough or high enough, and Hester is dangerous....but only needing the SU win, that doesn't concern me nearly as much as if I needed an 8+ point win with the -7.

Glad to see you liking the same side. I strongly believe it's the correct one :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

I have special teams concerns too, I played the Maynard under in the contest because of it....It is definitely comforting to just need the su win- I am still tempted to put a little on the Colts spread, but I'm settling on the over....


Indy/Chi o47-117

2 units


3rd Q o10-120

Indy/Chi o54.5+190

1 unit each



Utecht 1st td+2300

half unit


Also the final "sytem" play (6-4 +4.75u for playoffs)

1st score not a td +135

1 unit

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog

[Q-Unit]

:gulp:

[FearTheRaven]

I'm thinking the total is high for a reason.

Colts are going to put up some points today.

[Stifler's Mom]

Since I'm not making a thread for today to attempt to tout my unposted parlay, I hope you don't mind me adding to your discussion with some of my thoughts, since we're on the same side anyway....

There are alot of questions about the Indy defense, and, alot of talk that if "If Dilfer could win a SB, why not Grossman"

I find these statements to be a tad rediculous....and here's why....

While I don't think a team with no defense can win the super bowl (Dallas and SF had very respectable defenses to go along with those powerful offenses), the Colts have played good defense in the playoffs (minus a few possessions vs NE), but even in that game they sacked up when they had to and got the stops they needed against the best playoff/4th qtr QB since the turn of the century....something the touted SD defense failed to do against the same guys the week before.

Also, if you look at the questionable QB's who won the SB (most recently Dilfer, whom people keep comparing this Bears/Grossman thing to), you see 2 things:

1. His (Dilfer) team overall was far superior in every way to the Giants that year, and that Ravens defense was one of the 2 or 3 best in my lifetime, and maybe THE best ever. They dominated offenses, and were completely feared. No one moved the ball on them with any consistancy, ever. This Bears D is good, but not in the same category, and Chicago is certainly not superior to Indy in every way.

2. He (Dilfer) was not effectively a "rookie" in his first year of starting (yes I know Grossman is not officially a rookie)....but a veteran who had started many seasons in Tampa and had a ton of NFL experience.

I think it may come down to turnovers....something the Bears REALLY benefitted from vs New Orleans....or that game would have been much closer. So if Indy holds on to the ball, I think they win comfortably, because I don't believe the Bears can stop them all game long, nor do I believe the Bears can continually drive the length of the field and score TD's on the Indy defense.

Oh yea....Chicago has a crappy red zone defense...so those possessions in which Indy moves the ball may likely result in TD's, not FG's.

Go horseshoes :yeah:

[Underdog88]

Great points Stif- if you look solely at the playoffs, I would have trouble saying the Bears even have the better defense right now...I'm looking forward to seeing how Grossman responds to a 3rd & long with Freeney coming at him...

The Seahawks were 3-3 inside the redzone, while avg 4.1 ypc on the ground. The Saints were 1-1 redzone, while avg 4.7 on the ground. I agree that turnovers did the Saints in, & as always can be the difference in the game. I have a hard time believing the Bears will stop Manning.....I just can't forget what Indy did @ Baltimore, IMO a far superior D than Chicago. I expect the Colts to come out very physical defensively...after all the naysayers doubting the Colts D, & Manning finally getting over the hump in such a dramatic way, I have a hard time believing anything stops them from a su win...

[Underdog88]

I also would like to add, congrats to Thurmanator on his induction...I have some great memories of going to the game with my father (especially the Championship blowout vs the Raiders) & watching him make people miss. IMO it's ridiculous that Irvin gets into the Hall before Andre Reed- he gets in because he was lucky enough to play on a dynasty team that won SBs, though Reed was twice the wr Irvin was....best wr over the middle bar none:yeah:

[FearTheRaven]

The Ravens Defense is twice as good as this Bears D and if the Colts can come into Baltimore and beat the Ravens without scoring a TD there is no doubt they can beat the Bears by at least a TD.

[Stifler's Mom]

Agreed on all points.

I was relieved to see Thurman get in. He deserved it.

Couldn't agree more about Reed having a better career than Irvin either. Take away those 3 titles, and Irvin never even gets a whiff of the hall IMO.

I also agree that Baltimore has (had, whatever) a superior defense to the Bears. They played a mickey mouse schedule and their D wasn't that dominating after about the first 5 weeks, besides the shutout of the hapless Jets offense.

Shit, they only faced 3 playoff teams the whole reg season....if you wanna even consider the Jets a legit playoff team.

Whatever though, it doesn't matter now. We'll see how the game plays out shortly....but I'll tell ya one thing, if it happens to be a close game, I'll take my chances with Manning driving down for a score rather than Rexy....and also if the Colts fall behind, I sure as hell like their chances of coming back than those of the Bears if they fall behind.

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, like we predicted, special (or not so special) teams play by the Colts keeping the Bears in this.

Don't allow the TD run on the kickoff, and convert the XP and easy FG and it's probably 20-7 Colts right now.

[Underdog88]

yeah, that Vinatieri missed fg sucked, I would have won my square:bang:

[Johnny Racetracks]

And I had over 1.5 FG in 1st half

at least over 4.5 punts came in (6 punts), I had my eye on that prop all week, even money too

[Stifler's Mom]

:yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah: :yeah:

[FearTheRaven]

:thumbs: :gulp: :thumbs: :gulp: