***Udoggie's Tuesday Discussion/Plays***

[Underdog88]

NBA 109-89-8 +$5630

Dog ml 21-40-1 -$265




Got a couple early leans, first looking at Denver/Sonics matchup.....

Denver on a b2b traveling to Seattle after a relatively easy win last night vs Memphis. (a little side note, both teams a combined 9-35 from 3 land last night, killing my over). Lean to the Nuggets & over, although Seattle has revenge here....last meeting the Nuggets won 112-98 @ home, despite being without Camby, Melo, Hilario, & JR Smith. Iverson had a great game scoring 44 & 10 assists & shooting 17-29 from the field. Seattle was also without Ray Allen.

The return of Melo not only brings back a scorer, but also helps the bench immensely. With Evans/JR Smith off the bench as well as Hilario & Najera, this bench is at least a little deeper. Blake also should benefit off this- although he may never be a scorer, he added 12 assists last night with just 1 turnover. While Denver won't stand a chance vs the top tier teams in the West, I have a feeling they will dispose of bad defensive teams rather easily. These teams combined for 210 without the top scorers playing, so IMO they should be able to get over 217 here. Last regular season they faced off 3x with 1 being the last regular season game. The other 2 were both in Denver & had totals of 217 & 221. Seattle plays a pretty soft D, IMO there will be quite a few layup drills with Iverson creating. I'm really not concerned about the B2B factor as far as the total goes, 7 of 9 b2b Denver games have eclipsed 206, with 5 going over 220. The two that went under were vs NO & Dallas, both without Melo.

Besides the revenge angle, there are a couple cons to playing the Nuggets tonight. Denver just 4-6 su on a b2b, & Ray Allen always has the potential to keep a game close if he gets hot. I'm sure the public will be backing the Nuggets here as well, which is always a little bit of a concern....

Looking into a couple more matchups, Wiz/Suns game has my attention. I'll be back with more thoughts, what do you guys think?

[Underdog88]

Suns/Wiz o232

3 units




Last meeting was in Phx, where the two team battled it out into ot. They totalled 283, 254 in regulation. The Wizards won as 10 pt dogs, so to me it seems strange that the line is 5 @ home. I have a lean to the Suns as well, given the revenge spot, but 5 is a bit scary. Wiz on a 4 game win streak of 3 days rest, these two teams will be pushing the ball all day...IMO this rests on Arenas, as if he is hot, this game should get into the high 240's. He has had two straight home games where he was held under 23 pts (16 vs NY & 22 vs Boston), something tells me he will be ready to score tonight. I expect shots to go up with 16 left on the shot clock throughout the game...considering a 1sth over play as well.

[AddictedToBetting]

GL Udogg...might make tail on the Over with ya...:thumbs:

[bigrod82]

Hey udoggie, I am considering a big play on Mavs -3 at the half. Any insight into this would be appreciated.

[matt71211]

I like the over in both games, I don't believe the Denver D will be sharp enough on a B2B on the road, and I think George will realize very quickly that he has an offensive juggernaut and will let it push the pace.

Phoenix is an odd line... I was going to hamme rwashington until i found out about the revenge factor.. I don't like the 230-something point total, as lately it's all ive liked and they've all been going under. Phoenix also has a tendency to not go over towards the backend of long winning streaks.. I looked it up about a week ago. However, I'll still be on the over, because this is Washington and Phoenix, and the Halftime score could be 81-80.

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by matt71211
I like the over in both games, I don't believe the Denver D will be sharp enough on a B2B on the road, and I think George will realize very quickly that he has an offensive juggernaut and will let it push the pace.




Karl encourages a fast paced game, he rarely calls for them to slow anything down, almost to a fault. Can't understand why this total is dropping, still deciding what to do in this one...

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by bigrod82
Hey udoggie, I am considering a big play on Mavs -3 at the half. Any insight into this would be appreciated.


I am not a fan of laying road pts this high, but there is no way I would back the Magic in any way tonight. The Mavs are playing the best ball in the NBA, & Orlando has been on a slide. Yes I played them yesterday & predicted them to win, but that was more of a play against the Cavs. Orlando is a pretty solid 14-7 at home, but when you look closer they have had a cupcake home schedule...Boston, Charlotte, Clips (while slumping, Miami (while missing everyone lol). They lost at home to the Lakers, Wiz, Warriors, so I really can't see them beating the Mavs tonight.

That being said, I think the number is tough here...now at 6, & the last 7 Mavs games on the road have been decided by 6 pts or fewer. The first half line does look good to me, but I could also see the Mavs starting slow & coming out strong 2ndh (like they did in Toronto). I can't say I love it, but I think it is the right side... I'm thinking of playing the Mavs ml, possibly in a two teamer...GL if you play it:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't know that I'd play ORL on the ML, but if i play that game, it's going to be taking ORL +6 (hopefully more).

I don't like the spot for Dallas (after MIA - a revenge game from last year's finals) and like you said, they haven't won by more than 6 in their last 7 road games.

IMO they won't cover both tonight and Thurs @ CHI. Maybe one, but not the other....so I'll probably go against em tonight and if they cover, hopefully the line @ CHI presents a good opportunity to get my cash back.

Dallas seems to play down to their opposition on the road sometimes....especially lately, and with no TRUE big man, I don't think they have the answer for Howard.

Of course, guys other than Howard are going to need to step up and make some shots, but Bogans has been hot from 3 pt range, and if he plays well and one other guy steps up a little from the perimeter, I think Howard will own the boards, and keep it a game.

[Underdog88]

Yeah, don't like the spread, but played Dallas ML in a parlay....


Clips ml
Nuggets ml
Mavs ml
Suns o230-160

$100 to win $369



Nuggets -2.5

Hornets+135

Hawks team o88.5

2 units each


IMO the Hawks keep it close tonight vs the Bulls, a play vs the Bulls (who have been unimpressive) paired with Atl on a big spread to screw everyone over....3 outright wins as +9 or more dogs this year. Was close to playing the ml, but I'll just root for them to score 90+. Still deciding on the Nuggets total...will likely play the Clips under, hoping to get 195 so I'm waiting on the line....off to work GL all:thumbs:

[matt71211]

Disagree with you on the Bulls game here, agree on Karl though.. Im hoping sonics can score their points. Gl tonight.

[williwonka05]

UD:thumbs:

[Whit_Eboy]

Good luck udog88

[Underdog88]

Thanks Matt, Willi, WhitEboy....


Hawks+9.5

2 units



Scary going against Bulls at home, but IMO this one is just too high....

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by bigrod82
Hey udoggie, I am considering a big play on Mavs -3 at the half. Any insight into this would be appreciated.


Congrats if you played it, doesn't get much easier than that:thumbs:


Kicking myself for not playing the Suns straight as well, tough laying 5 on the road vs a good home team....I need the Wiz to keep on scoring, if this gets too out of hand, the over is in jeopardy...

[Underdog88]

OMFG the Hawks are just terrible....6x down the court, 2 travels, 2 blocks & 2 offensive fouls:bang:

[Anderson.]

Udoggy, how many dollars does your unit translate to?

[Underdog88]

1 unit=$100


Push on the Suns over....Pissed I didn't play the Suns total earlier, when I first saw it @ 231....missed fts at the end of the game nearly made it a loss:puke:




SEa/Den o216

Bucks/Clips u194.5

2 units each

[Rah-stah Man]

GL bro!
:gulp:

[Anderson.]

GL Doggy!

[Underdog88]

A little early, but i'll likely be on the 2ndh over in the Sonics/Nuggets game...the pace is fast, & Denver checked the D at the door....should continue to be a bunch of open looks for the remainder of the game...

[Underdog88]

Den/Sea o107 2ndh


3 units

[FearTheRaven]

207 might be hard to hit 2h, I'd like my chances better at 107 :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

LoL if Ray Allen gets hot they may make it to 207!

Nuggets should have open looks if Seattle continues to play zone....Sonics will continue to push the ball as long as it's close....

[gsad]

Originally posted by Underdog88
Thanks Matt, Willi, WhitEboy....


Hawks+9.5

2 units



Scary going against Bulls at home, but IMO this one is just too high....

how did this game cover!?

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by gsad
how did this game cover!?


StaislavadavaMedvedenko with a 3 pointer for the garbage cover:thumbs:


I will not bet the Hawks again until either Lue or Claxton are back- the Bulls looked awful, but the Hawks have no depth whatsoever....

[Underdog88]

5-3-1 +$629 Nice comeback for the Nuggets....:gulp:

[AddictedToBetting]

Nuggets came through at the end with free throws...:thumbs: