EdwardHaney Australian Open 2007

[EdwardHaney]

Making my first tennis plays of the year, going to start off with small units for a while.




MONDAY

Women

Ondraskova -118 over Fernandez
Poutchkova -270 over Domachowska
Vakulenko +130 over Likhovtseva
Azarenka -118 over Fedak
Bartoli -117 over Dushevina
Sucha -165 over Birnerova
Sun +100 over Dulko
S. Williams -320 over Santangelo


Men

Hajek +475 over Ferrero
Simon -135 over Delic
Hrbaty -550 over Vanek
Acasuso -200 over Querrey
Melzer +105 over Karlovic
Mahut +130 over Monaco
Chiudinelli +123 over T. Johansson
Bracciali +250 over Monfils

[EdwardHaney]

all the sudden I got this bad feeling about Serena, she's going to ruin my day isn't she

[Horatio]

Hope not!!! GL:gulp:

[EdwardHaney]

TUESDAY


WOMEN 6-2 (+3.65 UNITS)

Rezai -140 over Loit



MEN 3-4 (-2.00 UNITS)

Wawrinka -320 over Kim
Lacko -145 over Smeets
Zverev -118 over Berrer
Capdeville +220 over Benneteau
Lapentti -150 over Mackin
Guccione +155 over O. Rochus
Muller +180 over Gaudio
Nieminen -225 over Goldstein
Horna +225 over Mirnyi
Kunitsyn +145 over Santoro
Malisse -230 over Clement
Tursunov -265 over Waske
Dancevic -275 over Hanescu
Verdasco -115 over Mathieu
Hewitt -265 over Russell

[EdwardHaney]

WEDNESDAY


WOMEN 6-2 (+3.65 UNITS)

Rezai -140 over Loit
Paszek -128 over Bremond
Rolle -135 over Dominguez Lino
Bartoli -173 over Azarenka
Schiavone -190 over Safarova
Srebotnik -225 over Benesova



MEN 13-9 (+3.25 UNITS)

Fleishman -133 over Arthurs
Querrey -103 over Serra
Monfils +230 over Baghdatis

[EdwardHaney]

Guccione :bang:


...had 4 match points in the 10th game of the 5th set. Credit to Rochus though he played the big points well.

[NittanyLions94]

Ed, you seem to know your stuff on tennis and the big favs have been good so far it seems, let me know if this is dumb or not:

Parlay:

Other Sports - 102 Novak Djokovic -560 for Game
Other Sports - 105 Roger Federer -9000 for Game
Other Sports - 108 Zack Fleishman -130 for Game
Other Sports - 111 Radek Stepanek -800 for Game
Other Sports - 114 Mikhail Youzhny -750 for Game
Other Sports - 118 Andy Roddick -1350 for Game
Other Sports - 123 Mario Ancic -700 for Game
Other Sports - 125 Marat Safin -1250 for Game
Other Sports - 202 P.Hanley/K.Ullyett -760 for Game

1 unit to win 3 units

Didn't pull the trigger on it yet because I want to see if it's worth my time or not. Thanks in advance.

[WayneWonder]

Nittany Lions...Favs are usually a safe bet early on but I would not play this parlay. The payout is only 3-1 and you need 9 favs to hit. Not that it wont happen, but the reward is not worth the risk.

[EdwardHaney]

yeah Nitt, so many tennis fav's crap out it's ridiculous...I suppose that bet looks alright though...unless Arthurs decides to be hero 2nd night in a row, but the rest of those guys should be able to find a way to win even if they struggle...I would have left off head-case Safin if it was me. Good luck though man I'll cheer for your guys!!


This tourney hasn't had the real big upsets yet (a few smaller ones) so expect these guys to start dropping soon hopefully it's not tonight!

[EdwardHaney]

Dlouhy is about to stick a fork in that parlay, he's up on Stepanek 2 sets and a break...It's gonna be quite the uphill battle for Step to come back and win now

[tt boy]

:yeah: Sexy comes back and wins it..how he ever got down like that to a stiff like Dlouhy is beyond me..Bartoli tanks her match.no big upsets so far but looks like Demented having problem with muller:puke:
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[WayneWonder]

I tailed you on the Monfils play...Nice hit, Ed!

:gulp:

[EdwardHaney]

THURSDAY


WOMEN 8-6 (-0.73 UNITS)

no plays today



MEN 15-10 (+5.22 UNITS)

Tursunov -170 over Mirnyi
Grosjean +115 over O. Rochus
Dancevic +375 over Hewitt
Lapentti +325 over Nalbandian
Verdasco +330 over Murray
Clement -145 over Santoro

[EdwardHaney]

regressed a bit yesterday, as i usually do when no major underdogs cash for me



FRIDAY


WOMEN 8-6 (-0.73 UNITS)

Safarova -225 over Yakimova
Kuznetsova -600 over Kirilenko
Peer -104 over Golovin



MEN 17-14 (+2.92 UNITS)

Ferrer -150 over Stepanek
Roddick -165 over Safin


Safin plays well at the Australian and should give Roddick a scare, but Roddick not to be denied today I'll go with the hungrier player...

[tt boy]

awesome job Ed:thumbs:
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[BeyondTheGame]

Excellent work on getting the perfect day.

[EdwardHaney]

thanks - TT, BTG



SATURDAY


WOMEN 11-6 (+2.27 UNITS)

Kostanic Tosic +360 over Chakvetadze
Zvonareva +130 over Ivanovic


MEN 19-14 (+4.92 UNITS)

Berdych -220 over Tursunov

[EdwardHaney]

SUNDAY


WOMEN 12-6 (+3.57 UNITS)

Hantuchova -212 over Harkleroad
Kostanic Tosic +360 over Chakvetadze
Kuznetsova -270 over Peer
Williams +165 over Jankovic
Vaidisova -140 over Dementieva



MEN 19-14 (+4.92 UNITS)

Berdych -220 over Tursunov
Roddick -330 over Ancic
Gasquet -135 over Robredo



Revenge factor for Serena, last time these two played Jankovic inadvertently hit Serena with a ball after the point was over and Serena stopped in her tracks and stared her down with the "I'll beat your ass you little bitch" look on her face. Jankovic went on to win that one, but I promise Serena will be at her best today, question is will it be good enough?

[EdwardHaney]

Kuznetsova :bang:


I trust her more than any of the other top players not to crap out early...and she failed me...despite that loss it'll still be a positive day as long as Gasquet can beat Robredo...and he's pissing away the first set as I speak... :bang:

[EdwardHaney]

SUNDAY


WOMEN 15-8 (+3.52 UNITS)

(no plays today)


MEN 21-15 (+5.57 UNITS)

Haas -125 over Nalbandian



Also looking at Berdych to perhaps get passed Davydenko, probably won't play it however

[Horatio]

That guy loses every time I bet him..he is a headcase.But he is 2-0 lifetime against Nalbo.
I see Davydenko beating Berdych on this surface. He is 4-0 lifetime against Berdych, and this surface is slow enough to suit Davydenko's speed of foot.
I am tempted into betting on Murray (never played Nadal). If Nadal gets through him, I am really going to look hard at Blake or Gonzo against him on this surface.

:gulp:

[BeyondTheGame]

Davydenko still owns Berdych. I put a heap of cash on that and the odds were pretty good for it as well.

I've got a few dollars on Murray just cause his enjoyed success at the Open and he has shown some form of maturity compared to last year.

[Horatio]

at Murray, not much however.Just like his chances. If Gonzo keeps playing this well, I will favor him over Nadal...

Nice hit on Haas...and davydenko downs berdych:gulp:

[Horatio]

Going into 5 sets..this one is getting intersting!!!:gulp:

[Horatio]

up 2-0, 5th set...Murray crumbling?? Man Rafa is mentally one tough customer...:gulp:

[Outlaw Bandit]

Typical Headcase Murray. Nadal breaks Murray serve in 5th set and Murray falls apart.

I've learned my lesson last season with Murray, and I finally stuck to my guns.......


DO NOT PLAY LIST


A. Murray
T. Robredo

Good luck to ya... I'll start posting picks in a few weeks, just to hard to pick early in the season.

[Horatio]

Melts down...what a folding...5-0 Nadal.:gulp:

[Sharukh10]

I wouldn't call it a meltdown. Murray really played well. His fitness has gotten better since last year but you could tell he wasn't physically strong enough (especially in middle of match and then at the end). If murray challenges that call in the 4th he wins the match. Its really hard to win when you are like 3-18 on break points and lose every deuce game.

He needs to get more fit and stronger (sure gilbert will take care of that). That will help him with his 2nd serve and first serve percentage that suffered as the match went on and he got tired.

Compare this years murray to the one that was exhausted in the 3rd sets last year. I've seen murray at many times just give up last year, i feel that he competed really well in this match.

Alittle more experience and hard work and murray will be a regular in GS finals, watch out Roger.

Gonzo should be a good bet against nadal IMO.

[BeyondTheGame]

Totally agreed - In this game it wasnt much that Murray was giving up unlike what happened in the US Open agaionst Davydenko. But Fitness really got the better of him. I think towards the US Open he could have that improved.

Agreed with Gonzo I think he could be a surprise against Nadal and I do believe this 5 setter took a bit out of Nadal so look for Gonzo for the Upset.

[Horatio]

I was perhaps using the wrong term.And whether you fold in the 5th due to physical fitness or mental, the result is the same.
I agree he will improve under Gilbert's guidance, if Gilbert can tolerate his incredible rudeness (directed towards his coach). :gulp:

[EdwardHaney]

With Haas winning yesterday that puts me over 10 units for the tournament. Probably will shut it down at this point so I don't give any back. My goal is to average 5 units per week for the entire season, so when I hit the 5 unit mark each week I'm going to stop, whether I get that on the first day or if it takes all week. (This being a rare 2 week tourney I stopped at 10 units). This probably won't happen but it seems realistic...5 units per week would be less than 1 unit per day. My units right now are $50, I think that's about right for me. Let me know if anyone has any input on this strategy??




ATP YTD (22-15, +6.57 UNITS, $328.50)

WTA YTD (15-8, +3.52 UNITS, $176.00)



just for kicks - if I was going to make any plays today, I would have one...Peer +206 over Williams


good luck to everybody!

[Horatio]

if you bet her..up a set...as for the strategy, it sounds good, but I tend to be slightly more inclined to ride a hot hand.I don't know, there are times when one gets a feel for a tournament, and I think it is not bad to mentally stow away the 5 positive units, but play with house money beyond...

Anyway, I think i is good to remain disciplined no matter how you do it.GL:gulp:

[Outlaw Bandit]

Serena showed alot of heart...


I had Serena and Vaidisova in a parlay, Thought Serena was gonna blow it after being up 4-2 in the 3rd.....

[EdwardHaney]

Originally posted by Outlaw Bandit
Serena showed alot of heart...


I had Serena and Vaidisova in a parlay, Thought Serena was gonna blow it after being up 4-2 in the 3rd.....



not over yet...Peer still hanging tough

[EdwardHaney]

lol sorry, for some dumb reason i thought ESPN was showing it live, i just got off work late and tuned in, and because there's only a few singles matches today I didn't access the live scoreboard on my laptop so I had no idea!!! I'm a fuckin 'tard, nice hit on the parlay though :thumbs:

[EdwardHaney]

No bets today, but here's my early opinions...



Clijsters and Nadal will win as favorites, -440 and -200


Haas will send Davydenko packing +150, and advance to play Nadal


And the shocker of the day will be Chakvetadze +395 over Sharapova...if I do make a move on any today this will be this one...



looking further down the road...Nadal will meet Federer in the final (surprise, surprise!) and Clijsters will meet Williams

Clijsters and Federer hoist the trophies (really it'd be crazy to think otherwise at this point)

[rousea]

Disagree on the Sharapova match.....she's 100% on top of her game right now and while Anna is shooting up the charts, she doesn't have the power to beat Maria.

[tt boy]

screamapova won in 2 tough sets and Clijsters dumps the 1st set but comes back to win a tough 3 setter
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[EdwardHaney]

Sharapova not to be denied, though Chakvetadze made her work for it.

I can't wait for Maria's match with Clijsters. This one will be the championship match it would appear. I still like Kimmy to win the whole thing though, she will not screw up this golden opportunity to win a major with Henin out of the draw.


Davydenko appears to be running away with the third set at this time, bout to go up 2-1 on Haas. I'm now cheering for Nadal to win tonight, because nother is better than watching Federer and Nadal go head-to-head, so I'm rooting for that matchup now.

Vamos Rafa

[tt boy]

what a match.Haas comes back to win in 5.just ended after 3 hours 20 minutes:yeah:
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[tt boy]

Gonzo is spanking Rafa.took the 1st 2 sets and up a break in the 3rd..looks like a gonzo fed final
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[BeyondTheGame]

Gonzo spanked Nadal! - Straight Sets.

[Horatio]

:thumbs: :prtytme: :thumbs:

[EdwardHaney]

Wow Gonzo at it again, adios Rafa



For tonight's matchup, the worst thing Roddick could have done is beat Roger at Kooyang. Federer should not lose this I think 10-1 odds would probably be more accurate. Roddick is playing excellent though but how could you go against Federer...Normally when A-Rod goes up against Roger he has 2 chances...slim and none. This time I'm leaning more towards the slim. If the odds were steeper I'd be tempted to throw in a unit on Roddick but I don't feel like we're getting enough value at all.


As for Serena, I don't think she's going to let herself lose this one. When she realizes her opponent she usually plays great. It's the no namers like Bammer that give her more trouble because she thinks she can just show up and win. Just a bit surprised she's the underdog...This would be the one I would play, and also I'd lean to Clijsters to go over Sharapova.

Probably just another night of no plays for me though, I'll just kick back and watch the action and save my nerves.

[tt boy]

nice of Roddick to show up/Fed gives Andy a tennis lesson.:beer2:
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[Horatio]

anyone who bets against Fedex needs his noggin examined...seriously.The guy has not dropped a set...he has so many more shots than Roddick it is not even close ...now 13-1 lifetime.Gonzo or Haas may present more problems but I do not think so.

Sharapova looked lame (well, she played lamely, she looked like a swimsuit model). Serena getting +240 having won the title twice already. Sharapova's serving was atrocious against Clijsters...tempted to take Serena here, someone talk me out of it??



:gulp:

[Outlaw Bandit]

I like Serena but I can't pull the trigger.

[EdwardHaney]

Not sure I've ever seen Federer play much better than he did against Roddick. He broke A-Rod about 5 or 6 straight times, unreal. Roddick wasn't playing poorly either. ESPN commentators were speechless (even Carillo).

In today's matchup I think Gonzalez is gonna do it. He's got the game, he's got the look, and he's gotta a beatable opponent in front of him.

Women's championship tomorrow is tough to pick, the line seems to be about right. If I was forced to make a pick it would be Sharapova, but I would stay away from this. If it was even money I'd take a stab with Sharapova. Maybe it's just because I personally don't want Williams to win. Not a big fan even though she represents my country.

[tt boy]

the final should be a dandy..Gonzo bends over Haas in a total hammer job..I'm on Fed not to win 3-0 in the final..He will have to work to win this the way Gonzo is playing
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[EdwardHaney]

For tommorrow, both guys are coming into this matchup playing lights out. Fena's ratio of winners/unforced errors is beyond comprehension. I wouldn't be suprised if Gonzalez is able to push Federer and make this one a halfway competitive match. I think he could probably get a set...but no way I would bet against Federer tomorrow. Federer has every shot in the book (and even some that aren't), and has never lost in the final of a grand slam event not played on clay.

[BeyondTheGame]

Put some money on Serena today - Ching Ching!!!

Easy Win.

[EdwardHaney]

Originally posted by BeyondTheGame
Put some money on Serena today - Ching Ching!!!

Easy Win.



Serena looked unbeatable....can we get a match that's not lopsided??

[Horatio]

:yeah: :yeah:

[tt boy]

Gonzalez blew 2 set pts and after that it was history
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