early thursday thoughts?

[theBOSS]

good day yesterday tailing the board on davidson, indy st, pitt, so miss...also hit on va comm....damn uconn ruining a perfect night.

whats everyone looking at for tomororw?

a lot of games but im not seeing much right now.

[FlyersFan]

here is one reccomendation for some of you out there....stop asking about and playing those road favorites in the small conferences. Yeah Davidson won, but BUTLER lost as a 5 point favorite (which some guy was going to load up on) and LOY lost by like 30 as a 2 point favorite. You can add that to a long long list of teams this year that lost as small road chalk. It killed me 3 years ago and i am trying to help people out by posting this continually, but it seems to fall on deaf ears. I have killed it the last 2+ years staying away from these teams. I mean, who is UNO to be a road favorite?....or any of these teams like Montana, Hawaii, ULL, Loyola........there is a very small talent gap amongst even the top to bottom teams in these small conferences. There are no dominant teams in any of these conferences like the MAAC, Craprizon, Southern, Sun Belt....so i just don't understand taking a road team and not only asking them to win in a game on the road where the talent is basically even, but asking them to win by like 2 to 5 points.

for Thursday:

AKR -9 over MIA(oh).....really think AKR is one of the 2 best teams in the MAC and should win this one by DD

ULM +1 over UNO at ULM............i am just going to start fading every road favorite in shitty conferences. They cover probably about 25 percent of the time which leaves me with a nice 75 percent piece of the pie

IDAHOST -3 over EWU.................IDAHOST is starting to play some good ball and is a value at home in this one, IMO

CAL -2 over WSU................WSU is now ranked, they are coming off a home sweep of the AZ schools..........prime time for an upset IMO. CAL has been playing better of late.

[Whit_Eboy]

What about Bowling Green +11 at Ohio? Both are 10-4 and 1-0 in conference but line is high because Ohio's schedule has been way more difficult and have managed to beat some good teams.

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by Whit_Eboy
What about Bowling Green +11 at Ohio? Both are 10-4 and 1-0 in conference but line is high because Ohio's schedule has been way more difficult and have managed to beat some good teams.

I initially liked OHIO, but i thought the line was going to come more around OHIO -6 or -7..........OHIO wins this game, but i think the line is pretty fair. I had them as a play until i saw the -11. Bowling Green has played absolutely nobody, though, so i think you have to throw their record out the window. I would say OHIO wins this one by 10-15 points.

[NittanyLions94]

FF, the Sun Belt is a really unpredictable league, road or home. If I was going to start fading small road fav's I wouldn't do it there because there is very little to no home court advantage. In that league already:

Florida International wins at Troy but hasn't won a home conference game yet.

MTSU is 3-0 on the road in conference, but 0-1 at home.

South Alabama wins at Ark state but turns around and loses their next home game to MTSU.

Crazy stuff happens in that damn league.

[williwonka05]

Green Bay looks like a decent play .. Line could go up to 3 possibly as i see the majority on YOUNGSTOWN..


Green Bay has won 5 of the last 6 in this meeting and they have a senior point guard who leads them in scoring (RYAN EVANOCHKO). key on the road when you have that experienced guard play IMO.

Looking at that game right now .

They shoot foul shots very well (23rd in the nation) and they take care of the rock (15th in the nation fewest TO's per game)

[NittanyLions94]

Ryan Evanochko from Blackhawk, PA :yeah:

Saw that kid play in HS and he was a man amongst boys, and I was very surprised he didn't go to a bigger school.

[williwonka05]

Blackhawk has been a hot bed for good players..

Calabria - NC , Archi Miller - NC ST , Fuss- Cheatham - Oh St


They are always tough ....

I live very close to that school ..

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by NittanyLions94
FF, the Sun Belt is a really unpredictable league, road or home. If I was going to start fading small road fav's I wouldn't do it there because there is very little to no home court advantage. In that league already:

Florida International wins at Troy but hasn't won a home conference game yet.

MTSU is 3-0 on the road in conference, but 0-1 at home.

South Alabama wins at Ark state but turns around and loses their next home game to MTSU.

Crazy stuff happens in that damn league.

nittany- i am only concerned when teams go off as road favorites...i could care less if they win on the road SU as a dog....
and it's not like i all of a sudden discovered this and am going to fade road favorites.....this killed me 3 years ago and i have followed it ever since....these "small road fav shitty conference teams are now 1-6 since Saturday...and it will continue....

and once again tonight.....UNO a small road fav last time i saw the line at -1 loses outright........it's all i played tonight and i am playing it blind for the rest of the season.....:thumbs:

[FLASHPOINT]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
nittany- i am only concerned when teams go off as road favorites...i could care less if they win on the road SU as a dog....
and it's not like i all of a sudden discovered this and am going to fade road favorites.....this killed me 3 years ago and i have followed it ever since....these "small road fav shitty conference teams are now 1-6 since Saturday...and it will continue....

and once again tonight.....UNO a small road fav last time i saw the line at -1 loses outright........it's all i played tonight and i am playing it blind for the rest of the season.....:thumbs:

Post those picks daily and we can see how it does... Im always interested in winners...

[FlyersFan]

Originally posted by FLASHPOINT
Post those picks daily and we can see how it does... Im always interested in winners...

i will do that, and i can tell you from experience and following it over the last 3+ seasons how small road favs do in these conferences...they hit about 25-30 percent of the time......most of the time they are sucker lines......

i didn't see the game cuse played so these low road favorites are actually 2-6 since Last saturday.......that's a whopping 25 percent....:thumbs: