Comment on Line Movements

[FlyersFan]

I used to really worry about big line moves and being on the other side of them. But the more i look at this i say, who gives a shit. The people that move these lines (at least this season) seem to be wrong just as much as they are right.


Tuesday the ALA line got hit hard from -4 1/2 to -2 in some places about 2 hours before the game............wrong move

Saturday the OHIO line went from -1 to +2 about an hour before the game...........................wrong move

Saturday the UNI/SIU line went from UNI -3 1/2 to UNI -1 about 45 minutes before tip off.......................wrong move

Saturday the ULL/Denver line went from ULL -3 to ULL -5 about an hour and a half before tip..................wrong move

now some have been right like Tuesday's TOL game went from TOL -1 to TOL -2 1/2 about an hour before the game............correct move

but my point is, that i no longer really give a shit about the late line move because in all honesty, it is right just as much as it is wrong. And i really have been concious of games that had big line swings whether i am on them or not and followed them this year.

Curious what anyone else's thoughts are on this........

[Underdog88]

I am starting to think the same thing...for all sports. In the NBA I've been trying to ignore line moves for small pt faves/Dogs. IMO Line moves are a reaction to public perception, many times there are moves because a player is out, but IMO in most of these instances the line moves more than 1 player is worth. Tonight the Pistons dropped to -1 (from as high as -3), thanks to the injury report & despite everyone in the world being on them, they won. To me it seems to happen more in smaller lined games. IMO the best way is to find a side you like, research it & if you decide it is play-worthy, grab it at the best line you can.

[NittanyLions94]

I used to get real worried about line movement against me, but now I just like to trust my numbers and go with what I think is right. If a line moves off of a number that I liked, I sometimes make it a no play like I did the ND game tonight. It won't cause me to go on the other side.

On a semi-related note, I used to put a little more weight on where the public goes as well, that hasn't seemed to work so good this year either.


So in the end I just say, if you like a play, just make it.:yeah:

[CuseFan10]

I personally try not to look at who the public is on and/or line movement when assessing a game, but I do look at the public numbers on sportsbook.com probably once a day, and always after I've capped a game (especially if someone on here mentions something is a big public play or something or anti public one). As for line movement, I put more creedence into line movement in football games then basketball ones, personally. If the line moves 1/2 or 1 point anytime from about 5-7pm I just assume the public is home from work and Vegas is getting it's action now. If it moves more than that, I'll check back into a game and see if I missed something, but generally I'd say it's not going to change my opinion on any given game. I use a local guy so I'll track things on sportsbook and then get my plays in if I see something I want moving the wrong way, and hope he hasn't had time to update things yet.

My approach is basically that of UDoggie and Nitts, though. I check the lines, jot down any possible plays, cap those games, decide if I want to play them, then go back one last time and check to see if I missed anything.