Hedge-Betting Question

[patrick7033]

At the start of bowl season I place a few pretty big parlays just to see what might I happen. I risked a half unit to a unit each on these hoping to hit a big jackpot. I of course made my regular bets as usual, and had a very good bowl season with 3 to 4 unit bets on sides. All but two of my parlays had been beaten in one way or another by the Insight bowl. For one of them all I needed was Texas Tech to cover (I had them at -6)and I would win 20 units for a 1 unit risk. I decided to hedge my bet so I bet on Minnesota +8 for 10 units. This would garuntee me a large profit with no risk, and a chance for a large middle-job. This turned out to be a very good bet since Tech didn't cover. I won ten units from my other bet and lost my one unit parlay. Here's my current situation:

My other parlay that had held up all bowl season was an 8 team (sucker bet, I know) at 1 for roughly 200 units (moneylines). After the Cards covered I had three teams left, still a long way to go. LSU covered, luckily, leaving me with two left: Western Michigan +7.5 and Florida +8. I really wasn't sure why I put Western Michigan on there, since I had seen them play all of two times, So I hedged my parlay a little with a pretty large bet on Cincy at +7, just in case. Turns out I didn't need it so it looks like I can fire away on a 100 or so unit bet on Ohio State at -7.5. I want a line of -7 so I have a decent shot at a potential middle. It looks like my line could move that way if I wait, but it is currently at an EVEN money payout. No juice. Should I take the seven and a half with a 100 unit bet (that is A LOT for me) and not sacrifice any juice, or should I wait for it to move to -7 and maybe take up to a 10 unit hit?

[beancounter]

sounds like a nice problem to have. if I am reading this correctly, you need florida to cover to win 200 units? damn.

not sure what kind of units we are talking about whether it is $10 or $100, but +200 units is a lot of cash so it all depends on how much risk to you want to take. sounds like this is a lot for you, so I would definitely hedge. I agree to throw something on ohio st, so you will win about units no matter what. that is a very nice way to watch a football game. but in order to make it interesting, I agree getting it a -7 would be ideal for the "middle". if you wait until the line moves to -7, you will pay -110 juice, most likely. why don't you just by the line down to -7 at -110 now (-10 juice for the 1/2 pt). put 105 units on it, be up 95 if ohio st covers, and up 95 if florida does. with the potential for the "push" and thus +200.

[Horfin]

NO MATTER WHAT HEDGE.

I'd do it know with the EVEN odds. Right now you have 1 unit to win 200, Right?


If you bet 100 to win 100, you are GUARANTEED 99 units.


Seems simple.....ain't nothing better than just having to wait to see that cash in your account. If you don't do it and you lose tommorrow then you will be kicking yourself. If you do do it and it was not necessary.....blame me, but regardless you will have a guaranteed 99 units. If you use $10 units, you are GUARANTEED $990.00. Do it and don't look back.

This is the best possible situation to be in.

If you like your original play you could do 50 to win 50, but you are only guaranteed 50 units but you have the potential to be up 150. Remember potential is just potential.


Good luck with whatever you choice.....Good job
Horfy:thumbs:

[patrick7033]

Thank you Horfin for your advice to take the even money odds. After reading your post it made much more sense to take this bet, and not have any risk of the juice taking anything from me. I got florida +8 and Ohio State -7.5 There still is a small chance for a middle (teams win by 8 alot, right?) and the game should be more fun to watch. This was my largest sports bettin' wager ever, and I have a 100% player edge.

[Horfin]

It is a great position to be in.....and if Ohio State wins by 9 you will realize how much sense it makes. If Florida Covers you don't win as much, but few things in life are guaranteed and guess what........ you have one of the few.


Congrads:thumbs: