Blue Nuts on Sunday

[Horfin]

Vancouver 2 units -200


Waiting on the Montreal line to come available

YTD:

Montreal 23-15 +19 units
Vancouver 22-16 +41.4 units

ALL 45-31 +60.4 units


Be Back in a while with Montreal
]

Horfy:thumbs:

[Horfin]

4 units Montreal -120

[tonic]

Do you know if Koivu is going to miss this game also?

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

Quick question Horfy, i see ur Nuts system seems to be working well but i dont understand how it is this well?? Because if this were football or basketball the juice is -110 and that would not eat up the bankroll much but HOCKEY is extremly juiced you rarely get Montreal at +money or less than -130. What im trying to say is lets say Montreal loses 3 in a row and 4th game they are favored at -220. With your system of 2 units(game1), 4 units(game2), 8 units(game3)...odds these games have Montreal favored so if they all lost you would be down 14 (IF THERE WAS NO JUICe) but more like double with juice. If you put 16 UNITS on -220 your risking (35.2 units to win 16) correct and still would be down since your not factoring in the juice???

Just curious as to how it works, GL with the system seem like it works, was thinking about doing it for baseball but, the juice in baseball is high so a .400-.500 win team seems good.

[Horfin]

Thanks for the question. If you don't mind I'll answer it at home (after work)


Horfy:thumbs:

[Horfin]

HAHA,

Here is a chart for Montreal. My numbers are slightly better because I accidently overbet once or twice and Mont won, Also I have assumed a $20=1 unit better.

Date Team Line W/L Bet Win Loss Money Units
10/6/2006 Montreal 150 L $20.00 $- -20 $(20.00) (1.0)
10/7/2006 Montreal 120 W $40.00 $48.00 0 $28.00 1.4
10/11/2006 Montreal 115 W $20.00 $23.00 0 $51.00 2.6
10/14/2005 Montreal 100 L $20.00 $- -20 $31.00 1.6
10/17/2006 Montreal -115 w $40.00 $34.78 0 $65.78 3.3
10/18/2006 Montreal -110 l $20.00 $- -20 $45.78 2.3
10/21/2006 Montreal -145 w $40.00 $27.59 0 $73.37 3.7
10/23/2006 Montreal 110 l $20.00 $- -20 $53.37 2.7
10/26/2006 Montreal -125 w $40.00 $32.00 0 $85.37 4.3
10/28/2006 Montreal -170 l $20.00 $- -20 $65.37 3.3
10/31/2006 Montreal 105 w $40.00 $42.00 0 $107.37 5.4
11/2/2006 Montreal 115 w $20.00 $23.00 0 $130.37 6.5
11/7/2006 Montreal -145 w $20.00 $13.79 0 $144.16 7.2
11/11/2006 Montreal -120 l $20.00 $- -20 $124.16 6.2
11/12/2005 Montreal 135 w $40.00 $54.00 0 $178.16 8.9
11/15/2006 Montreal 110 w $20.00 $22.00 0 $200.16 10.0
11/16/2006 Montreal -130 l $40.00 $- -40 $160.16 8.0
11/18/2006 Montreal -140 w $80.00 $57.14 0 $217.30 10.9
11/22/2006 Montreal -140 w $20.00 $14.29 0 $231.59 11.6
11/24/2006 Montreal 165 w $20.00 $33.00 0 $264.59 13.2
11/25/2006 Montreal -220 L $20.00 $- -20 $244.59 12.2
11/28/2006 Montreal -240 W $40.00 $16.67 0 $261.26 13.1
11/30/2006 Montreal 105 l $20.00 $- -20 $241.26 12.1
12/2/2006 Montreal -160 w $40.00 $25.00 0 $266.26 13.3
12/5/2006 Montreal 115 l $20.00 $- -20 $246.26 12.3
12/7/2006 Montreal -100 w $40.00 $40.00 0 $286.26 14.3
12/12/2006 Montreal -150 w $20.00 $13.33 0 $299.59 15.0
12/14/2006 Montreal -155 w $20.00 $12.90 0 $312.49 15.6
12/16/2006 Montreal -175 w $20.00 $11.43 0 $323.92 16.2
12/19/2006 Montreal 150 w $20.00 $30.00 0 $353.92 17.7
12/21/2006 Montreal -280 w $20.00 $7.14 0 $361.07 18.1
12/23/2006 Montreal -130 l $20.00 $- -20 $341.07 17.1
12/27/2006 Montreal -150 w $40.00 $26.67 0 $367.73 18.4
12/29/2006 Montreal -140 l $20.00 $- -20 $347.73 17.4
12/30/2006 Montreal -115 l $40.00 $- -40 $307.73 15.4
1/2/2007 Montreal -170 w $80.00 $47.06 0 $354.79 17.7
1/4/2007 Montreal -155 L $20.00 $- -20 $334.79 16.7
1/6/2007 Montreal -135 l $40.00 $- -40 $294.79 14.7
1/7/2007 Montreal -120 l $80.00 $- -80 $214.79 10.7


------------------------------
Your point is well taken, but it actually works better in NHL and MLB because you get the +180 and stuff, which offsets the losses in the -220s.

A few points:
1. I don't have it with me but you have to be careful on your unit size (I'll post that later).
2. You can't play this system with really good teams like Yankees, they really need to be middle of the road teams around .500 or slightly better, this way you don't get a long string of losses and you don't get a whole bunch of -250 lines. You can see from the above that Montreal doesn't get a whole bunch of those most of the lines are -140 to +140.
3. You must be careful on your unit amount (I'll post that later) {yes there is a reason why I listed it twice}
4. And I guess to answer your specific question in NHL, after a team loses 4 straight I guess they are very seldom at -220, looking at montreal They have only had one 3 game losing streak (right now) and they are juiced at -135. So up to this point you would have bet $140 and if they win at -135 you only get back $118. Which is not great, but if you look again you will see Montreal has won at
+120
+115
+105 (2 units)
+115
+135 (2 units)
+110
+165
+150

Vancouver has the big win with a 8 unit win at +180, which is why they are +41 units.

But you see even if I win tonight at the -135 and lose money on this series of nuts (-3.2 units) I will still be up 17 units and I can guarantee (almost) that there will be games where Montreal is +140 and I have 4 or 8 units on it and they win.

**********If you are even thinking of doing this system you have to have big balls and you have to set y our units right. You can not start at $20.00 a unit unless your bankroll can handle it and you have to be prepared to play $320 or $640 or $1280 on one game***** The system is set up for teams that will not win a whole bunch in a row but will also not lose more than six in a row becaue that 7th game is scary:
$20-1st
$40-2nd
$80-3rd
$160-4th
$320-5th
$640-6th
$1280-7th

It is scary because if they lose the next game you are laying $2480 and if that is a loss then you are laying $4960.00.

You have to be prepared. I have gone through a long worksheet and analysis and stats and I have it figured out as to what your balance should be in your account in order to play a certian unit size. I just don't have it with me.


Sorry for the LONG ASS response and no I am not homee from work, you just took up 30 minutes of my day (LOL)

Horfy:thumbs:

[Horfin]

One last thing,

I think, unfortunately, Montreal will probably lose its value (if it hasn't already). I think no one expected them to do this well. So there may come a point when I have to ditch both teams and pick up different ones becuase of the point you picked out. If they start getting a whole bunch of -220 and -240 then there will be issues.


Horfy

[Horfin]

I found it:

Unit Size..................Balance In Betting Account
$5.00.......................$635 to $1270
$10.00.....................$1270 to 2540
$20.00.....................$2540 to $3810
$30.00.....................$3810 to $5080
$40.00.....................$5080 to $6350
$50.00.....................$6350 to $7620
$60.00....................$7620 to $8890
$70.00.....................$8890 to $10,160
$80.00.....................$10,160 to $11,430
$90.00.....................$11,430 to $12,700
$100.00..................$12,700 and higher

In other words DO NOT try this system if you have less than $635 in your betting account. The above is based upon using 4 or 5 different teams at once because of, using $5 as an example:
1st $5
2nd $10
3rd $20
4th $40
5th $80
6th $160

If a team goes on a six game losing streak the next game you will be playing $320.00 on it. Thus to make it to the 7th game you need the sum of all the previous bets plus the 7th game bet of $320.00.

If you are doing 4 or 5 of them at once you will be winning on some of them and picking up ON AVERAGE $4 a day (at $5) and $9 at ($10) and $18 at ($20).

These are average numbers there will be times when you think WHY IN THE *&(* am I doing this.

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

thanks for the info, great job keep it up, will try this in MLB this spring

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Might be a good idea to change Montreal to one of the teams that made coaching changes and have recently turned it on (but still have overall bad records because of the slow starts) like STL, Columbus and Chicago. They will still get the decent value lines because they are so still under .500, but they have played well of late (relatively).

Vancouver still has good value.

[Horfin]

Thanks JML

I will probably change it. Keepin' a close eyeball on it.