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01-06-2007, 10:14 AM
Cincinnati Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
Brian Kelly left Central Michigan to take the Cincinnati head coaching job in early December so he has the unique advantage of already beating his bowl opponent. The offensive-minded coach should have a good grasp of an excellent Western Michigan defense and its few soft spots as a result. While Kelly is expected to mix in his own plays and philosophies, he is also expected to use Cincinnati's terminology so the potential for mistakes isn't as great. Kelly ran a balanced attack with the Chippewas but chances are he relies on the running game more than usual because there are concerns at quarterback. Kelly named Nick Davila the starting quarterback and Davila played well down the stretch but this will be just his second start at the Division I-A level. Dustin Grutza, who has been slowed by injuries, has started 11 games this year and there is a good chance he sees some playing time as well. The problem is that experience hasn't translated into sound decision making, as he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Making matters far worse, the Bronco pass defense is in position to take advantage of this weakness. First off, the pass protection has been shaky and it should have a difficult time holding up against a strong Western Michigan pass rush headlined by WLB Ameer Ismail. Ismail, who leads the nation with 17 sacks, has great initial quickness and closing speed. Though the Bearcats could adjust the protection to account for him, the attention he draws will help open up rush lanes for his supporting cast. Secondly, no team has intercepted more passes than the Broncos this year so they clearly have the playmakers to turn a mistake into a momentum-shifting turnover. That said getting the ball to TE Brent Celek should be a priority for whichever quarterback is in the game. Celek is an excellent possession receiver who has good size, strong hands and he runs hard after the catch. In addition, getting him the ball over the middle should help open up the outside for WRs Dominick Goodman, Bill Poland and Derrick Stewart.
Western Michigan's linebackers fly to the ball and its front four can be disruptive so it comes as little surprise that it has been fairly strong against the run thus far. In addition, SS C.J. Wilson is big enough to line up close to the line of scrimmage and the Broncos can afford to play him in the box because FS Louis Delmas can cover a lot of ground behind him. However, Cincinnati doesn't need a lot of long runs from RBs Butler Benton, Greg Moore and Bradley Glatthaar. It just needs to pick up three-to-four yards per carry because that will keep the quarterbacks out of a lot of situations with pass-heavy tendencies, putting the Bearcats in better position to sustain drives. With that in mind, the ground game may not be pretty but it could be effective if the backs don't waste any motion in the backfield and consistently fall forward. Furthermore, all three are powerful runners with good size and splitting carries between them will keep them fresh.
Western Michigan Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Western Michigan is at its best when it sets its passing attack up with the ground game so Cincinnati should see a steady diet of RB Mark Bonds. Bonds is a workhorse who averages more than 20 carries per game and appears to get stronger with each touch. Of course, having a quality backup that can contribute around 10 carries per game and keep him fresh has made Bonds more effective, as backup Brandon West complements him very well. While Bonds has slightly better vision and power, West is more explosive. As a result, the Bearcats should adjust their approach depending on which runner is in the game. They should force Bonds to run laterally rather than vertically when he is in the game and funnel West inside where there is more help when he is in the game. That being said, chances are the Broncos have their most success running between the tackles despite the fact MLB Kevin McCullough is an effective interior run stuffer. While Cincinnati has good team speed and it's relentless in pursuit, Western Michigan's offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Bearcat front four. Pounding the ball inside should cut down on blocking angles and make it easier to get into position at the second level. Even if McCullough is able to make the play, he should make it three-to-four yards downfield because it should take him some time to shed the block.
QB Ryan Cubit has a number of weapons at his disposal, including WRs Jamarko Simmons, Joe Chapple, and Herb Martin as well as TE Branden Ledbetter. Simmons possesses rare size and he can use his wide frame to shield defenders from the ball. Chapple has been an effective short-to-intermediate possession receiver and both Martin and Ledbetter can stretch the field. However, DCs Mike Mickens, John Bowie and DeAngelo Smith have above-average cover skills and SS Dominic Ross is a playmaker with decent range. As a result, Cubit should have to hold onto the ball longer than usual on certain plays. Though Western Michigan's pass protection has been sound and it should be able to keep the Cincinnati pass rush at bay for the most part, strong coverage should allow the Bearcats to get to Cubit at times. His ability to make sound decisions on the occasions the protection doesn't hold up could play a big role in the outcome of this game. Though Cubit has a strong arm, he puts too much faith in it at times and he can try to thread the ball through coverage rather than throwing it away when he gets into trouble. If he puts the ball up for grabs too much, the results could be some costly turnovers.
Special Teams
Cincinnati's Kevin Lovell is somewhat inconsistent but he connected on his last nine field goal attempts including seven over the last two games. He has also converted all of his point-after attempts this year and ossesses a good blend of range and accuracy. It's also worth noting that he gets adequate distance on his kickoffs. Though Brian Steel doesn't always get great distance on his punts, he generally gets good hangtime; he can place the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line and he finished the season strong. Dominick Goodman is quick, reads his blocks well and can break tackles, making him an effective kickoff returner. However, he doesn't have elite speed and he faces one of the strongest kickoff cover units in the nation. Derrick Stewart is in far better position to make an impact returning punts, as he has the speed to do some damage against a weak Western Michigan punt cover unit.
The Broncos' Nate Meyer isn't a lock to connect on field goal attempts inside 40 yards but he has good leg strength and he has shown that he can get the job done in high-pressure situations. Though he can get good distance on his kickoffs, he has kicked the ball out of bounds five times this year. P Jim Laney can pin opponent's deep. However, he hasn't shown great range. It's also worth noting that QB Ryan Cubit has placed two of his five punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Brandon West is quick and elusive so the Bearcats' kickoff cover unit can't afford any breakdowns or sloppy tackling. A porous Cincinnati punt cover unit should also have to have one of its strongest games because Joe Chapple is fast enough to break long returns when he gets a seam.
Matchups
• Western Michigan RB Mark Bonds vs. Cincinnati MLB Kevin McCullough
• Cincinnati TE Brent Celek vs. Western Michigan DS's C.J. Wilson and Louis Delmas
• Cincinnati OT Jeffrey Linkenbach vs. Western Michigan WLB Ameer Ismail
Overview
New Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly knows what it takes to beat Western Michigan because he's already done it once this year. In addition, the Big East is stronger than the Mid-American Conference so the Bearcats could have better overall talent. However, look for the Broncos to get the win. Though Bonds shouldn't have a career day, he'll be productive enough to take pressure of Cubit and keep the defense well rested by eating up some clock. Cubit should admittedly make some mistakes when he gets pressured but the Bearcats don't have the playmakers to make him pay for every one and he should be efficient when he gets time.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati should also have some success moving the ball on the ground and that should keep the score close. The problem is the Bearcats should have to make a play through the air at a critical point in this game and they just don't match up well with the Bronco pass defense. Western Michigan's pass rush should harass whichever quarterback is in the game and its back seven should continue to do what it does best, which is make plays on the ball.
Western Michigan 24
Cinncinnati 17
Western Michigan +7
Western Michigan ML +220
Brian Kelly left Central Michigan to take the Cincinnati head coaching job in early December so he has the unique advantage of already beating his bowl opponent. The offensive-minded coach should have a good grasp of an excellent Western Michigan defense and its few soft spots as a result. While Kelly is expected to mix in his own plays and philosophies, he is also expected to use Cincinnati's terminology so the potential for mistakes isn't as great. Kelly ran a balanced attack with the Chippewas but chances are he relies on the running game more than usual because there are concerns at quarterback. Kelly named Nick Davila the starting quarterback and Davila played well down the stretch but this will be just his second start at the Division I-A level. Dustin Grutza, who has been slowed by injuries, has started 11 games this year and there is a good chance he sees some playing time as well. The problem is that experience hasn't translated into sound decision making, as he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Making matters far worse, the Bronco pass defense is in position to take advantage of this weakness. First off, the pass protection has been shaky and it should have a difficult time holding up against a strong Western Michigan pass rush headlined by WLB Ameer Ismail. Ismail, who leads the nation with 17 sacks, has great initial quickness and closing speed. Though the Bearcats could adjust the protection to account for him, the attention he draws will help open up rush lanes for his supporting cast. Secondly, no team has intercepted more passes than the Broncos this year so they clearly have the playmakers to turn a mistake into a momentum-shifting turnover. That said getting the ball to TE Brent Celek should be a priority for whichever quarterback is in the game. Celek is an excellent possession receiver who has good size, strong hands and he runs hard after the catch. In addition, getting him the ball over the middle should help open up the outside for WRs Dominick Goodman, Bill Poland and Derrick Stewart.
Western Michigan's linebackers fly to the ball and its front four can be disruptive so it comes as little surprise that it has been fairly strong against the run thus far. In addition, SS C.J. Wilson is big enough to line up close to the line of scrimmage and the Broncos can afford to play him in the box because FS Louis Delmas can cover a lot of ground behind him. However, Cincinnati doesn't need a lot of long runs from RBs Butler Benton, Greg Moore and Bradley Glatthaar. It just needs to pick up three-to-four yards per carry because that will keep the quarterbacks out of a lot of situations with pass-heavy tendencies, putting the Bearcats in better position to sustain drives. With that in mind, the ground game may not be pretty but it could be effective if the backs don't waste any motion in the backfield and consistently fall forward. Furthermore, all three are powerful runners with good size and splitting carries between them will keep them fresh.
Western Michigan Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Western Michigan is at its best when it sets its passing attack up with the ground game so Cincinnati should see a steady diet of RB Mark Bonds. Bonds is a workhorse who averages more than 20 carries per game and appears to get stronger with each touch. Of course, having a quality backup that can contribute around 10 carries per game and keep him fresh has made Bonds more effective, as backup Brandon West complements him very well. While Bonds has slightly better vision and power, West is more explosive. As a result, the Bearcats should adjust their approach depending on which runner is in the game. They should force Bonds to run laterally rather than vertically when he is in the game and funnel West inside where there is more help when he is in the game. That being said, chances are the Broncos have their most success running between the tackles despite the fact MLB Kevin McCullough is an effective interior run stuffer. While Cincinnati has good team speed and it's relentless in pursuit, Western Michigan's offensive line has a substantial size advantage over the Bearcat front four. Pounding the ball inside should cut down on blocking angles and make it easier to get into position at the second level. Even if McCullough is able to make the play, he should make it three-to-four yards downfield because it should take him some time to shed the block.
QB Ryan Cubit has a number of weapons at his disposal, including WRs Jamarko Simmons, Joe Chapple, and Herb Martin as well as TE Branden Ledbetter. Simmons possesses rare size and he can use his wide frame to shield defenders from the ball. Chapple has been an effective short-to-intermediate possession receiver and both Martin and Ledbetter can stretch the field. However, DCs Mike Mickens, John Bowie and DeAngelo Smith have above-average cover skills and SS Dominic Ross is a playmaker with decent range. As a result, Cubit should have to hold onto the ball longer than usual on certain plays. Though Western Michigan's pass protection has been sound and it should be able to keep the Cincinnati pass rush at bay for the most part, strong coverage should allow the Bearcats to get to Cubit at times. His ability to make sound decisions on the occasions the protection doesn't hold up could play a big role in the outcome of this game. Though Cubit has a strong arm, he puts too much faith in it at times and he can try to thread the ball through coverage rather than throwing it away when he gets into trouble. If he puts the ball up for grabs too much, the results could be some costly turnovers.
Special Teams
Cincinnati's Kevin Lovell is somewhat inconsistent but he connected on his last nine field goal attempts including seven over the last two games. He has also converted all of his point-after attempts this year and ossesses a good blend of range and accuracy. It's also worth noting that he gets adequate distance on his kickoffs. Though Brian Steel doesn't always get great distance on his punts, he generally gets good hangtime; he can place the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line and he finished the season strong. Dominick Goodman is quick, reads his blocks well and can break tackles, making him an effective kickoff returner. However, he doesn't have elite speed and he faces one of the strongest kickoff cover units in the nation. Derrick Stewart is in far better position to make an impact returning punts, as he has the speed to do some damage against a weak Western Michigan punt cover unit.
The Broncos' Nate Meyer isn't a lock to connect on field goal attempts inside 40 yards but he has good leg strength and he has shown that he can get the job done in high-pressure situations. Though he can get good distance on his kickoffs, he has kicked the ball out of bounds five times this year. P Jim Laney can pin opponent's deep. However, he hasn't shown great range. It's also worth noting that QB Ryan Cubit has placed two of his five punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Brandon West is quick and elusive so the Bearcats' kickoff cover unit can't afford any breakdowns or sloppy tackling. A porous Cincinnati punt cover unit should also have to have one of its strongest games because Joe Chapple is fast enough to break long returns when he gets a seam.
Matchups
• Western Michigan RB Mark Bonds vs. Cincinnati MLB Kevin McCullough
• Cincinnati TE Brent Celek vs. Western Michigan DS's C.J. Wilson and Louis Delmas
• Cincinnati OT Jeffrey Linkenbach vs. Western Michigan WLB Ameer Ismail
Overview
New Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly knows what it takes to beat Western Michigan because he's already done it once this year. In addition, the Big East is stronger than the Mid-American Conference so the Bearcats could have better overall talent. However, look for the Broncos to get the win. Though Bonds shouldn't have a career day, he'll be productive enough to take pressure of Cubit and keep the defense well rested by eating up some clock. Cubit should admittedly make some mistakes when he gets pressured but the Bearcats don't have the playmakers to make him pay for every one and he should be efficient when he gets time.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati should also have some success moving the ball on the ground and that should keep the score close. The problem is the Bearcats should have to make a play through the air at a critical point in this game and they just don't match up well with the Bronco pass defense. Western Michigan's pass rush should harass whichever quarterback is in the game and its back seven should continue to do what it does best, which is make plays on the ball.
Western Michigan 24
Cinncinnati 17
Western Michigan +7
Western Michigan ML +220