Bowl Season Picks

[MParris86]

So I have had these four games locked in for several weeks now. I picked four games that I really liked and will play four units on each.

Here is the first:

Rutgers -6.5 vs. Kansas State

Rutgers is still hopping mad after losing some heartbreakers down the stretch. You can bet they want to make a case for themselves in the Texas Bowl against an inferior KSU team.

The two big matchups I see in favor of Rutgers is a) the Scarlet Knights rushing attack vs. the front seven of KSU; b) The Rutgers defense vs. KSU QB Josh Freeman.

Rutgers should be able to run well on KSU behind Rice and Leonard. Some teams that KSU faced this year gashed them for big yards on the ground. KSU had only the 70th ranked rush defense.

Also, I like Rutgers' attacking defense for force freshman QB Josh Freeman into some mistakes. He has thrown 13 interceptions this season against only 6 touchdowns. Rutgers should be licking their chops going after Freeman.

KSU has double digit losses to Missouri, Louisville, Kansas, Baylor and Nebraska. When they lose, they lose big. Rutgers will add to that list.

Prediction: Rutgers 28 Kansas State 13



I'll add my other picks later in the week. :thumbs:

[joepa66]

Love that pick Tightend.....let's cash it bro....will be posting it myself later this week after my trip to Durham for the Kent/Dukies game....GL
:yeah:

[JayCol]

Originally posted by MParris86

Here is the first:

Rutgers -6.5 vs. Kansas State


Prediction: Rutgers 28 Kansas State 13

[/B]

Great analysis... also motivation is a big part in Coll Football. With the coach staying on at Rutgers, and football investments being made by the univ, I think the coach will get the kids motivated to win Rutger's very first bowl game.

The other spreads I like are:
Michigan +1
Louisville -8.5
Ohio State -7.5

I just don't like the above 3 as much as I like Rutgers. So right now I am only recommending Rutgers.

J

[JayCol]

Originally posted by MParris86


Rutgers should be able to run well on KSU behind Rice and Leonard.

Prediction: Rutgers 28 Kansas State 13

I'll add my other picks later in the week. :thumbs:

Another important thing is that Leonard is healthy now (he wasn't for the WVU game). Hence Rutgers should be even stronger than the team that on the road tied WVU in regular time.

J

[MParris86]

Thanks guys...I think the Big East is going to show up BIG this bowl season and they will earn the respect they should have been given all season. Everybody had an excuse why WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers just couldn't hang with the big boys. Meanwhile, the joke really was on the ACC. Wake Forest and GT in the championship? Come on. We'll see how they fare against some real offenses.

[birdsfan5]

GL MParris

[JayCol]

Originally posted by MParris86
Everybody had an excuse why WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers just couldn't hang with the big boys.

Yeah, I agree the Big East did not get the respect it deserves. I changed my mind when Louisville beat up Miami.

J

[shorts]

GL MP! Like that Rutgers play. I've got to wait until it gets closer since my local won't give a line until that day!

BOL to ya bowling!

[MParris86]

Second Play:


Western Michigan +8.5 vs. Cincinnati

What is there not to like about this game? You can write a novel about the coaching status at UC. Hell, I don't even know who is going to be coaching for Cincy. Is it the "interim" head coach that was the D-Coordinator or is the new guy going to be on the sidelines? Either way, its a distraction for the Bearcats and now isnt the time to be changing systems and such.

Or how bout the fact that Cincinnati just cant seem to figure out who their starting QB is. Is it Grutza? Is it Davila? I'm not a fan of a revolving door at the quarterback position because I think it creates havoc for the O-line.

Finally, how is the lame Cincinnati O-line going to block what is one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the QB? Heres a stat from ESPN:

"...The Bearcats allowed 29 sacks, third-most in the Big East. The Broncos were second in Division I-A with 42 sacks, and linebacker Ameer Ismail led the country with 17."

Now I don't know about you, but I not only think the Broncos cover this large number, but they could win the game outright.

Prediction: Western Michigan 24 Cincinnati 20

[MParris86]

West Virginia -6.5 vs. Georgia Tech

I just don't see how Georgia Tech is going to be able to score enough points to keep this game interesting. The Yellow Jackets defense will slow down the potent WV offense, but I just can't see them keeping them under 20-25 points at the least.

The two teams ended their respective regular seasons on different notes. While WVU won a tough triple OT game against Rutgers, Georgia Tech lost 9-6 to Wake Forest.

West Virginia can score on anybody with Slaton and White running the ball. Both were banged up late in the regular season but they will be back to 100% against GT. Those two can torch any defense.

GT, on the other hand, has been abysmal on offense, mostly due to Reggie Ball's ineffectiveness at QB. In their last two games, both losses, Ball completed just 15 of his 51 passes, threw four interceptions, lost a fumble and failed to throw a touchdown pass.

So basically, you can have the greatest WR in the world (Calvin Johnson) but if he can't get the ball, his worth is greatly diminished. Too many times this season Johnson has disappeared.

Prediction: West Virginia 31 Georgia Tech 14

[MParris86]

Louisville -9.5 vs. Wake Forest

Look, I like the underdog story of Wake Forest, the tragedy of Jon Abbate's brother, etc. But let's be realistic. They are not ready to go toe-to-toe in a BCS Bowl with one of the top five teams in the country.

Bottom line: Wake Forest has a good defense, but they are facing one of the best offensive teams in the country. They might be able to keep Louisville under their 38.9 ppg average, but I don't see them holding them under 28.

That leaves it up to the Deacons' offense to keep the game close. Louisville doesn't have the best defense, but they should be able to contain Wake's offense, ranked an awful 98th in the country. QB Riley Skinner will have to face the bright lights. I dont think a freshman quarterback is ready to lead his team down the field consistently enough to keep Wake in the game.

Prediction: Louisville 30 Wake Forest 17

[MParris86]

Oh yeah..Reggie Ball is ineligible for Georgia Tech...I don't know if thats a good or bad thing for the Jackets considering how bad he was down the stretch, but either way its a distraction and the chemistry between he and Calvin Johnson is gone.

Also, speaking of Johnson, he had 177 yards receiving against Wake Forest in the ACC championship. So what does that mean for Louisville? They also have a 6-6 WR (Urrutia) and some other weapons (Douglas). Think Brohm is licking his chops?

[joepa66]

I think we are twins, or are at least hacking into one another's computers or something.....will be backing all the same picks bro.....let's roll!
:yeah:

[JayCol]

Originally posted by MParris86

Rutgers -6.5 vs. Kansas State

[/B]

At Sportsinsight.com is shows that 80% of the 15,130 bets are on Rutgers. If I were a bookie I would be getting quite nervous and be moving the line. But that hasn't really happened, it has moved from about Rutgers -7 to -8 at most. Wonder why?

Is it possible that the 20% bets on Kansas are bigger at an average by 4X? Doesn't seem likely to me.

J

[MParris86]

Originally posted by JayCol
At Sportsinsight.com is shows that 80% of the 15,130 bets are on Rutgers. If I were a bookie I would be getting quite nervous and be moving the line. But that hasn't really happened, it has moved from about Rutgers -7 to -8 at most. Wonder why?

Is it possible that the 20% bets on Kansas are bigger at an average by 4X? Doesn't seem likely to me.

J

You can play what you want and think what you want. I cap the games, not the percentages in Vegas. From the research I did on the two teams and how they match up, I believe Rutgers is a touchdown better than Kansas State. If 80% agree with me, then so be it.

[JayCol]

Originally posted by MParris86
match up, I believe Rutgers is a touchdown better than Kansas State. If 80% agree with me, then so be it.

Yeah, I sure agree with you. I have been on Rutgers for a while too, and have been following your other picks carefully.

Was just wondering how the bookmakers operate?

J

[MParris86]

Add:

Central Michigan -7 vs. MTSU (2.5 units; bought 0.5pt)

Central has the more explosive offense;

Chips have a significant "home field" advantage;

Opposite momentum heading in (CMU wins MAC championship easily while MTSU blows a 13-pt lead and loses Sun Belt Conf. title);

And this quote by MTSU coach Stockstill sealed it for me:

"They are a lot bigger than we are at every position," coach Rick Stockstill said. "And we aren't all that fast, either. We have some guys who can run, but you wouldn't look at our team and say we've got a ton of speed."

"This is a blue-collar team," he said. "They weren't supposed to be able to get this far, so there's no telling what they are still capable of doing. They are going to work extremely hard. We just have to play smart and get some breaks."


Not really confident in his boys it seems....


Prediction: Central Michigan 31 MTSU 16

[MacDaddy]

Hell, not only were you right on the money, you damn near got the score exactly right.

I'm a believer in sunny NC.

Keep Rollin.

[Thor24]

Congrats$$..MParris..Congrats$$

[williwonka05]

:thx:


I loved that quote you posted about MTSU head coach

[MParris86]

Thanks guys...shoulda put more units on that one....:wink:


As far as tonight is concerned, I really don't know....UCLA -3 looks pretty tempting though. I was at the ND-UCLA game and those Bruins are pretty darn tough. Defense is solid and the offense is decent...but they play some hard-nosed football and are well coached in my opinion.

The biggest thing at that game was how well UCLA travelled...they were in South Bend in full effect, so I would have to imagine they are going to have a huge homefield advantage playing on the west coast.

I'll think about a play tonight, but I need to do some more research.

[MAGNUM]

Great call MP!:yeah:

[Marky_Mark]

MP, Just let you know the weather in San Francisco are not so good, it's rainy, windy, rusty and the field are wet....The total for this game is 39, I'll play under in this game.

GL MP:thumbs:

[MParris86]

UCLA -2.5 vs. Florida State (2 units; bought 0.5pt)

From an e-mail I received:

"UCLA has covered their last four games to improve to 8-3-1 ATS this season. In games played on grass, UCLA is 8-2 ATS this season. The Bruins’ defense has been especially hot, holding their last three opponents to 9.3 PPG. FSU has only covered twice in their last six games. FSU’s running game has been almost non-existent as of late. Over the last three games they have averaged just 48.3 RYPG. This isn't good news for FSU bettors, as the UCLA "D" gives up less than 90 RYPG. With numbers like these, it isn't difficult to figure out why 70% of the early bettors prefer UCLA -3.5."


Definitely not my strongest play, but I liked UCLA when I saw them live, they should have a nice home-state advantage, and Florida State hasn't shown me anything all season to back them.

GL with your plays tonight. :thumbs:

[MParris86]

Oh well...UCLA really shit the bed last night. 2H was a joke.

Adding:

Texas Tech -6 vs. Minnesota (5 units)

The Red Raiders are third in the nation in passing offense, going against the nation's No. 115 pass defense. As Borat would say, "That's NIIICE"

Also, Minny's top player, TE Matt Spaeth is out with a bad shoulder. Not good for the Gophers, who are going to have to pass the ball well to keep up with TT's high powered offense.

Remember, this is a Minnesota team that almost lost to I-AA North Dakota State, 10-9. They did not beat a I-A team with a winning record all season.

I'll gladly lay two field goals here.

Prediction: Texas Tech 42 Minnesota 24

[AuTiger20]

GL Mparris. I just added TT too. I hope to see the Red Raiders flying up and down the field. Keep the winners coming:thumbs:

[MParris86]

Thanks AUTiger...BOL to you this weekend.

Rutgers was an easy winner...hoping for more of the same tonight with Texas Tech.

Going to look at the other games before making a decision. Last time I made a play just for the hell of it, UCLA got their asses kicked.

[MParris86]

Damn why do I have to keep sticking my hand in the cookie jar...


Adding:


Clemson -10 vs. Kentucky (2 units)

Clemson's duo of Spiller and Davis should have a field day against Kentucky's horseshit defense. Even if they stack the box, Will Proctor should be able to find people downfield as Kentucky's pass D was last in the SEC this year.

Kentucky can throw the ball, but will have a tough time against Clemson's 12th ranked defense. DE Gaines Adams should apply pressure all day long.

Clemson struggled down the stretch, but I think if they come out with a chip on their shoulder like FSU and Rutgers have done, they should have no problem and will let their superior athleticism take over the game.

Prediction: Clemson 35 Kentucky 20

[MParris86]

What the hell....I'll put a unit on a five team parlay for today's games. One unit to win 20.

Clemson -10 vs. Kentucky
Oregon State -3.5 vs. Missouri
South Carolina -5 vs. Houston
Texas Tech -7.5 vs. Minnesota
Maryland +1 vs. Purdue

[MParris86]

Add:

South Carolina -5 vs. Houston (2 units)

I really liked this info from espn.com:

All the Gamecocks' losses came to teams ranked in the Top 25, including a three-game stretch where they lost to Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida by a total of 14 points.

The Gamecocks also should have a nice advantage after selling 12,780 tickets for this game compared to 5,000 for Houston.


Just think SC has played a MUCH tougher schedule and is better prepared. Their defense should be able to contain Houston's offense enough to win.


Prediction: South Carolina 28 Houston 21



Also:

2 team ML parlay (2 units)

South Carolina ML
Texas Tech ML

[joepa66]

BOL to ya Tightend....all over them boys from uSC too...:thumbs:

[Icedude2828]

Originally posted by MParris86
You can play what you want and think what you want. I cap the games, not the percentages in Vegas. From the research I did on the two teams and how they match up, I believe Rutgers is a touchdown better than Kansas State. If 80% agree with me, then so be it.

I dont understand why people do that either. If 80% of the people betting their hard earned money are on a superior team your gonna change your bet to the 20%? that just shows me that the public thinks rutgers were the superior team and they were. so why go place your bets against everyone ? there is a reason why 80% of the people were on rutgers, because they are better! ill never understand but thanks for the winner Mparris! keep it rollin!