***UDoggie's MNF Play***

[Underdog88]

NFL 139-121-3 +$7957




I usually keep all of my weekly plays in one thread, but this game deserves it's own thread....


This looks to be a great game with arguably the hottest team in football going into Indy to face a suddenly fading Indy team. Cincy is coming in winning the last 4 games after a rough loss to the Chagers. They are 4-2 on the road vs a team who has lost 3 of 4. Each loss was worse than the next, culminating in a Jags blowout where half the team got to rip off big runs....All 3 losses have one thing in common

They were on the road!

Indy is still undefeated this year @ home. Both teams have a great passing attack. Both have equal run games. Indy had the decided edge in pass D (2nd in the league compared to Cincy who has the worst pass D). Indy cannot stop the run- they are now allowing 5.4 ypc for an avg of 176 per game. Cincy is far from solid in stopping the run giving up 4.2 for 108 per game avg. Many have said the D has really stiffened up the past couple weeks for the Bengals, & I have to disagree there. They held Oakland to 7 pts, which is no big feat. I give them credit for holding the Ravens to 7...the Browns have struggled offensively, so that was no surprise. Holding the saints to 16 looks impressive until you look at the whole game. The Saints killed themselves with turnovers & outgained the Bengals by a ton- they finished with 595 net yards, but lost because of 4 turnovers.

Indy knows how important this game is-they need to grab momentum going into the playoffs, & with SD handling the Chiefs, it's up to the Colts to keep pace in the race for homefield. I'm sure Cincy will be motivated as well, but I can't justify playing on them in this situation. Of course I expect Cincy to try & run early & often. The Colts know this- I'm not sure if the Colts can stop the run, but i know they can score... & they only need to stop Cincy 1 more x than they get stopped (as silly as that sounds). Ultimately IMO the Colts take this by 7+. I'm on the Colts & that is all- don't want to touch the total as it is very high, yet wouldn't be surprised to see it go over halfway through the 3rdq. Gotta roll with the hometeam that will be out to prove to the world they aren't giving up.....



Colts-1.5 1sth-110

1 unit


Colts-3-120

3 units



GL to all:gulp:

[Underdog88]

I'm gonna throw a prediction out there for fun...



34-20 colts & I'm happy:gulp:

[Superskins]

GL Udog!

[sam1979]

GL UNDER :thumbs:

I think this is must win for BENGALS . This is their playoff game.


Their defense is playing very well & offense is better than COLTS right now.


They can score on every poss but COLTS cant.


This is PK game for Books but as usual home team gets 3 pts

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog like the Colts too:gulp:

[Horfin]

The U

You are on the right path. The Cincy "D" that everyone is hyped about did good against: Oakland (ho-hum), Baltimore (ho-huim...they are not exactly a lights out offense), Cleveland (ho-hom) and New Orleans (a good one). This Defense also gave up 42 points to San Diego in ONE HALF AT HOME no less, 26 points to baltimore, 29 points to the Vickies.

Indy is a different team at home scoring 45, 17, 36, 14, 21, and 43. No one seems to realize that the third string Center for Cincy does matter in this game (it really didn't against Oakland cause there was no offense for Oakland).



Horfy

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Underdog88


This looks to be a great game with arguably the hottest team in football going into Indy to face a suddenly fading Indy team.


Tennesse is playing Indianapolis?


Horfy

[gadfly36]

hey udog, i like your reasoning, indy should win at home.

[WHALEYDOG]

GL Udog ! I totally agree :thumbs:

[dbuono]

The Colts pass defense is deceptive because no-one has had to pass on them.... This whole thing about the Colts run defense is funny to me. Everyone acts like they just became bad this year. The fact is the Colts have always been terrible against the run. Teams are just playing them more patiently now and it's showing. The thing I like about this game is the fact that Palmer basically calls all the plays. Not only does he call his own number a lot (Bengals rank 22 in rushing attempts per game) but the crowd noise tonight will certainly be a factor in the way they run their offense.

Also, I do agree on the Bengals defense...they are really overrated right now....They have just been the beneficiaries of circumstance the past 4 games....

Anyway, the bottom line is this:

In the Colts past 22 home games, they have never been a dog. They are so good at home they have only been favored by 7 points or less 2 times out of the past 22 games.... The result is they are 2-0 ATS in those games.

How can anyone tell me that the side to play tonight isn't the Colts? I feel getting them only -3 at home is nothing short than a gift from god. I am a little nervous about Stokley and Clark being out because Manning has been struggling without them. But the bottom line is this game is just as important to the Colts and they are home on Monday night playing a bad defense......

Colts roll!

[Stifler's Mom]

I think the Colts roll too.

Cincy defense has looked good, but against Oakland? Cleveland?

I personally think the Bengals defense is in for a reality check tonight....

[JPix]

GL Underdog, I like both....:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

thanks guys- 1sth a winner, let's finish them off....



Indy team total o14+115 2ndh

1 unit




IMO Cincy won't be able to stop Peyton tonight:gulp:

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally posted by Horfin
Tennesse is playing Indianapolis?


Horfy

I think the winner of Tennessee/Buffalo this coming weekend makes the playoffs. Seriously.

GL to us, both Bills and Titans fans (but a little more to Udog88 and I, LOL):thumbs:

[Underdog88]

:yeah:



God Stif I hope you are right.....Buffalo needs a whole bunch of help, but the way the schedule sets up, anything is possible. I'll be rooting for the Fins vs Jets for sure. Problem is they get the Raiders week 17. That dink & dunk shit with the Jets is boring as hell to watch. It's pretty crazy to see every 8-6 & 7-7 team playing each other the next two weeks- going to be some good games....


oh & Peyton---------> Harrison= :gulp:

[Stifler's Mom]

Miami is going to beat the Jets....IMO the Jets stink.

If we beat Tennessee, Baltimore might "lay down" in week 17, being locked in their spot too, who knows.

But either Cincy or Denver loses next week, and IMO Cincy will lose to Pittsburgh in week 17. KC will probably lose at JAX in week 17 too. Plenty of opportunities for these teams to lose....although now that I think about it, we don't need KC to lose, LOL

We have the tie breaker over all the 7-7 teams....just have to win out and catch a few of the 8-6's....which is very likely considering the matchups....IF we win out.

What REALLY hurts is that loss we had to the pathetic Lions, or we'd be 6 seed RIGHT NOW at 8-6 :bang:

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

We have the tie breaker over all the 7-7 teams....


Not the Titans...............yet.

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Miami is going to beat the Jets....IMO the Jets stink.

If we beat Tennessee, Baltimore might "lay down" in week 17, being locked in their spot too, who knows.


What REALLY hurts is that loss we had to the pathetic Lions, or we'd be 6 seed RIGHT NOW at 8-6 :bang:


I agree- the Jets are ridiculously overrated, terrible run D, spaghetti arm Pennington should get roughed up vs Miami.

All I keep thinking about is when the Bills needed the win week 17 vs Pitt & they beat us at home...yes that Lions loss is devastating right now, but every year I look back & think...


How in the hell did we lose to ____ on the road?

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Underdog88



How in the hell did we lose to Tennesse at home?

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by Horfin
Not the Titans...............yet.


I am in no way looking past the Titans either- they are dangerous. They find ways to win & earlier this year the Bills found ways to lose... JP is much more confident now, but this game will be a run fest, IMO. Should be great to watch two hungry teams battling it out:thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Originally posted by Horfin
How did Tennessee lose to Buffalo???


Horfy


:gulp:

[Horfin]

The U,

I am just havin' fun with you and stif. To me this season is an absolute victory for my Titans. Hell anything above 4 wins is amazing by my Titans. The fact that there are two games left and we are even in the conversation of playoffs (no matter how remote the chance is) is really awesome.

I'll tell you what....people need to watch out for Tenny next year.....assuming Tenny doesn't screw up and let Fischer go....in case you hadn't heard this is the big story there....whether fischer will stay or go.

Horfy

[Underdog88]

I know, just messing back LoL....Agreed about the Titans. They have been good to me this year (with the exception of holding the GMen scoreless in the second half to kill my team over 24 LoL). Fischer has always been a class act, I admire coaches that can get the best out of their players, as there aren't many out there- hopefully for you & your Titans he ends up staying :thumbs:

[sam1979]

Awesome win UNDER.


I just thought Bungles will play with some desire & they needed this.

Well sunday cant come too soon......wait has started ...LOL :cool:

[gsad]

you almost nailed that score!:thx:

[gsad]

Originally posted by Horfin


I'll tell you what....people need to watch out for Tenny next year.....assuming Tenny doesn't screw up and let Fischer go....in case you hadn't heard this is the big story there....whether fischer will stay or go.

Horfy


Maybe he shows up to work one day and his keys won't open the door!

[Underdog88]

Thanks Sam & Gsad...


Sam- I'm sure you will find a solid holiday upset win next week....I like the Eagles again at first glance :thumbs:



Nice way to end the week, game went pretty much how I expected, 4 pts off on the score prediction. Cincy now has to play in Denver, should be a great game....3-0 +$515

[birdsfan5]

nice night and like you talking about liking the Eagles:thumbs:

[WHALEYDOG]

:thumbs: :thumbs: :thumbs:

[dbuono]

I think Parcells is slightly smarter then Coughlin......

Instead of :

Tiki= 17 carries
Manning= 40 attempts

You will see:

Barber= 40 carries
Romo= 17 attempts LOL


I was so pissed off that the Giants didn't take adventage of one of the worst run defenses in the league....... I don't see the Cowboys making that mistake....

I'm not sure if they cover yet, but I can't see the Cowboys losing S.U. to the Eagles

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree about the Dallas/NYG, Parcells/Coughlin, Tiki & Manning/Barber and Jones/Romo thing.

Don't forget that the Eagles are playing their third road game (all divisional too) in the same amount of weeks. Not an easy task at all.

I have little doubt that the Eagles new found life comes crashing down this week at the hands of the Cowboys....and I will definitely be on Dallas in that game.

One of my fav plays of the week actually. Don't like seeing you on the other side, but it takes alot for me to feel strongly about a fave this big....believe me, lol, and I really do like Dallas in this one....possibly in a rout.

[larry4498]

I completely agree w/stiff. So much so that I am starting the Dallas D in my fantasy league superbowl. Dallas wins by double digits. Nevertheless good luck on whatever you play.