yo week 14 no less

[yomonte]

YTD pending

I have seen alot of lines I did'nt understand and they were always -1 or -2. But they seemed to be right after the game was over. I will go back later and post them from day one. There is about six of them.

Hou -2 -110

[yomonte]

I can't pass this one up

Indy -2

Jax has always played Indy tough, but not that tough, Jeeeeeez. Leftwitch out for the season.

[switchfelt]

Garrard is better than Leftwich IMO. But I still see Jacksonville losing.

[yomonte]

Yeh, Indy playing for home field in the AFC now. Two teams at 9-3 and two at 10-2, Indy will step up. I have NE at 9-3 winning and Balt at 9-3 losing. Believe it or not, I got Den winning over SD at 10-2. Back up QB's have been winning their first OR second start at an alarming rate. So Cutler should keep this trend going.

[yomonte]

If the math ain't right its because of a push

Cover (opening lines)

HF 2/9/1/6/9/4/2/6/5/4/7/6/4
AD 8/3/7/2/3/4/4/5/5/7/5/4/6
===========
AF. 4/1/2/1/2/1/2/1/2/3/3/2/1
HD 2/2/3/5/0/4/5/2/2/2/1/4/5

under 12/8/6/5/7/5/5/4 /5/11/10/10/8
over.....4/7/8/8/7/8/7/10/8/5./6./6../7

Dog to a fav (#'s for original fav)
8-8 under
10-6 side

1. Teams that get skunked are 5-7 ATS the next week

2.Teams that did the skunking are 7-5 ATS the next week.

3. Teams that skunked another team are 1-8-1 two games after they skunked another team

4. Just pick the winner and they will cover 162-29 (Opening lines)

5. Dogs that cover and play each other the next week are 4-1 for an under

6. Dogs that cover the same week and then play each other two games later are 7-1-1 for an under i e week 3, GB and StL covered as a dog. Week 5 , they played each other and went under.

7. Totals that drop from open to close, 3 1/2 or more i e 43 1/2 to 40, the under is 8-7. 2 1/2 pt drop is 5-1 for an under for a total of 13-8 for an under. 3 pt drop no play

8. Lines that open at -1 the fav is 12-7 ATS

9. Lines that open at -2 the fav is 3-0 ATS

10. Lines that open at 3, the dog is 22-16-1 ATS

11. Lines that open at 3 1/2 are 7-4 for an under

12. Lines that open at 4, the dog is 7-1 ATS

14. Lines that open at 4, the under is 6-2

15. Lines that open at 4 1/2, the dog is 8-3 ATS

16. Lines that open at 5, the under is 5-1-1

17. Lines that open at 5 1/2. the fav is 3-1 ATS

18. Lines that open at -6 1/2 are 3-1 for an under

19. Lines that open at 7 1/2 are 4-2-1 for an over

20. Lines that open at 7 1/2 are 5-2 for the home team ATS

21. Lines that open at 8 are 3-1 for an under.

22. Lines that open at 9 are 4-1 for an under.

23. Lines that open at 10 1/2, the dog is 3-1 ATS

24. Lines that open at 11 are 3-0 for an under.

25. Lines that open at 13 to 14 are 5-1 for an over

26. Opening totals of 50+ 2-0 under

27. Totals that open at 33, the dog is 3-0 ATS

28. Totals that open at 34 and 34 1/2, the over is 4-0

29. Totals that open at 37 1/2, the over is 5-2

30. Totals that open at 38, the over is 8-2

31. Totals that open at 38 1/2, the under is 4-1

32. Totals that open at 39, the under is 9-4

33. Totals that open at 40 are 6-3 for an under

34. Totals the open at 40 1/2, the over is 4-2

35. Totals that open at 41 1/2, the under is 5-1

36. Totals that open at 42, the home team is 5-1 ATS

37. Totals that open at 42 1/2, the over is 6-1

38. Totals that open at 42 1/2, the road team is 5-2 ATS

39. Totals that open at 43 are 5-2 for an under

40. Totals that open at 43 are 6-1 for the road team ATS

41. Totals that open at 43 1/2, the over is 3-1

42. Totals that open at 43 1/2 are 3-1 for the dog ATS

43. Totals that open at 44 1/2, the dog is 5-2 ATS

44. Totals that open at 45, the dog is 6-1 ATS

45. Totals that open at 47 or higher, the under is 9-2-1. 47 1/2 or higher, is 7-1-1 for an under

46. Lowest total goes under 9-9 (two week 3, five week 8))

47. Highest total goes under 8-5 (two week 1)

48. MNF is 9-5 for an under

49. MNF, the home team is 10-4 ATS.

50. Dogs that cover as an away dog and are a home fav the next week are 14-7 ATS.

51. The highest scoring team is 3-10 ATS the next week.

52. Dogs that win SU on MNF are 4-0 ATS the next week

53. This year how teams that scored 40 or more by themselves did the next week SU and ATS. I posted the # they scored also. I read Billy's systems thread and remembered last year that a certain # did the same thing for a cover or no cover. 41 is the magic # (maybe)

WK 2

SD 40 as HF bye... AF- lose - no cover - under
Indy 43 as HF........HF - win - no cover- under

WK 3

Sea 42 as HF.........AD - lose - no cover - over

WK 4

KC 41 as HF...........AF- win - cover - over
Dal 45 as AF..........AD - lose - no cover- over
StL *41 as HF........AF - win - cover- under *(pushed opening line with that score)

WK 5

Chi 40 as HF...........HF - win - no cover - over
Jax 41 as HF bye....AF - lose - no cover- under

WK 6

SD 48 as AF............AF - lose - no cover - over
Pitt 45 as HF...........AF - lose - no cover - over

WK 7

Atl 41 as HD............AD - win - cover - over

WK 8

Chi 41 as HF............HF - lose - no cover - over

WK 9. (these two played each other)

SD 49 as AF.............AD - win- cover - over
Cin 41 as HD............AD - win - cover - under

WK 12

Indy 45 as HF..........AF - lose - no cover - under

Disclaimer: I do not guarantee that the trends and biases I’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of market efficiencies recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. I do not guarantee my data is error-free. However, I’ve tried my best to make sure every score and all data is correct.

In laymans terms, what goes up must come down and I ain't perfect LOL

[yomonte]

Buff +3 1/2 -105

Last time I checked, Buff was playing good ball and keeping better teams close. I don't know. Maybe I was looking at something else. Could this game end in a three pt game. I'll take my chances. Let me guess, they don't call the Jets gangreene anymore. This might just end up as Montesports Big Mac Billion * Play of the Century. LMFAO. GL fellas

Have a lovely day

[yomonte]

Going with the over 33 Thursday night. When the total has dropped 3 1/2 or more this year, it went 5-0 for an under to start off the year. After the what goes up, must come down effect took effect, just ask Norman Einstein, the last six went 5-1 for an over. Pitt played the first Thursday night game in week one to start the season and went over. Now were looking at a back up QB taking the helm POSSIBLY for Cle.

Cle/Pit ov 33 -110

[Rothko1000]

I like your Indy bet! Myself, I'm going with the Jags! But, I do like your Indy bet! LOL! This may be the one the books have to eat to make their customers happy! Indy is a public play, but I still like it! Of course, I'm going with the Jags! LMAO...

[yomonte]

LOL Roth, appreciate it :wink:

[yomonte]

Philly -1 1/2 -110

Not going to type or cut and paste my thoughts on this one. They can be found in Horfins thread. I would like to add that when a team opens at a pick, the home and road team are 2-2. But they have alternated and its the road teams turn LOL. Check out Horfies thread for thoughts and reasoning. GL and have a lovely day

[yomonte]

Games/teams that fit the trends

3. KC and Oak

5. Sea/Ariz and Tenn/Hou under

8. Atl, Det and Indy

10. Balt, Tenn, Mia and Ariz

11. Buf/NYJ under

12. NYG

16. Den/SD and Chi/StL under

17. SF

22. Cle/Pitt under

29. Cle/Pitt, Balt/KC NE/Mia and Buf/NYJ over

31. Atl/TB, Min/Det and NYG/Car under

32. Phil/Wash under

34. Oak/Cin over

35. Tenn/Hou under

36. StL

37. Indy/Jax over

38. Indy

41. GB/SF over

42. GB

48. Chi/StL under

49. Phil (beerman)

50. Hou and Det

51. Buff

52. Phil (yo)

[Superskins]

GL

[larry4498]

:thumbs: