Stifler's Mom
12-03-2006, 12:02 PM
ytd 97-70 (+73.37 units)
dog ml's 12-15 (+4.85 units) <---½ unit plays on the ML on every dog I play ATS of +7 or less
Chicago Bears -9 (+105)
Minnesota playing in below freezing weather? Bears return home after 3 straight road games, and have something to prove here, especially Grossman. Minnesota is still free falling, despite beating a hapless Arizona team last week, while the Bears can clinch the division with a win. I smell a Soldier Field blowout here....big time.
St Louis Lambs -6.5 (-109)
Quite simply, I'll gladly play against Arizona anytime they are a +7 dog or less on the road. These guys blow on the road and have nothing to play for at 2-9 except next year. I think this one will be controlled by the Rams, and if Arizona turns it over a few times by doing nothing but passing (since their offensive line sucks and they can't run for shit), it could get real ugly.
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Doesn't this line look fishy? Indy's the best team in the NFL, and should murderize lowly Tennessee, right? Not so fast. Indy has a pretty weak rushing defense, while Tennessee has a pretty strong rushing game, and a QB who just happens to have the wheels to run a little bit as well. Tennessee is coming together as a team, and Indy hasn't really been blowing people all out all season. Combine Tennessee's ability to possibly control the clock with the run, and their playmaking defense and special teams, and I like my chances for a close game here.
Indy also has Jacksonville on deck, which is a game that probably means more to them.
Detroit Lions +13 (-105)
Nearly 2 TD's here and they cannot give the Lions away. But, the way I see it, this is a "meaningless" non-conference game for NE. They know they will beat the shitty Lions, the question is just "by how much"?
This just looks like a pitiful spot for NE, with divisional rival Miami on deck, who is on a roll and always plays the Pats tough....and that (combined with what Udog88 pointed out about the Pats pass D vs the Lions pass O) should be enough to keep this one within the spread.
2.5 units each
San Francisco 49ers +7 (+100)
The Saints just keep piling up offensive numbers at an alarming pace, scoring points, and covering.
As a result, their lines keep going up.
BUT, SF has one hell of a rushing game, while I don't find the N.O. rushing defense to be the most impressive i've ever seen.
SF should be able to do plenty to keep the Saints possessions limited today.
New Orleans is also prone to turning the ball over sometimes, which is bad news when you're laying points.
Rushing is good. Turnovers are bad. Gimme SF in a possible upset.
Buffalo Bills +6.5 (-105)
I don't want to go too much into this play, as I'm a homer and don't want to mislead anyone with things I may see in the Bills that don't mean alot except to the fan who has hopes that the Bills will once again be a good team one of these years, lol....but lets just say I think this line is off just a tad.
Buffalo gets no respect, San Diego gets alot of respect....and rightly so because they are a good team....but this is too much.
Another thing I like is that SD has Denver and KC on deck, and very may well overlook the 5-6 Bills.
Cleveland Browns +5
Well, the Browns suck ass. They got beat 30-0 by Cincinnati last week, while KC is on a bit of a roll. Why isnt this +10 or more? The Browns have no chance today!! Right?
Not in my opinion.
You cannot judge a team (good or bad) on one performance, unless you want "the man" to get richer at your expense....and too often people do, and the books know this. So it's best to play a team off an ugly performance, because you're getting a favorable line, and therefore a better chance to cover.
Before that ugly loss to Cincinnati, they had been competitive all season, finding ways to hang around in games, and pull off a few wins here and there. What's weird, is that Cincinnati is the only team to blow out the Browns this year, and they did it twice. Other than their games vs Cincy, they've been in every game, and they've played a pretty darn tough schedule.
As I've been saying for weeks, I think the Browns are far better than people give them credit for, and have a shot at winning this game outright as their young team continues to improve.
2 units each
San Francisco 49ers ML +275
Buffalo Bills ML +250
Cleveland Browns ML +200
½ unit each
dog ml's 12-15 (+4.85 units) <---½ unit plays on the ML on every dog I play ATS of +7 or less
Chicago Bears -9 (+105)
Minnesota playing in below freezing weather? Bears return home after 3 straight road games, and have something to prove here, especially Grossman. Minnesota is still free falling, despite beating a hapless Arizona team last week, while the Bears can clinch the division with a win. I smell a Soldier Field blowout here....big time.
St Louis Lambs -6.5 (-109)
Quite simply, I'll gladly play against Arizona anytime they are a +7 dog or less on the road. These guys blow on the road and have nothing to play for at 2-9 except next year. I think this one will be controlled by the Rams, and if Arizona turns it over a few times by doing nothing but passing (since their offensive line sucks and they can't run for shit), it could get real ugly.
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Doesn't this line look fishy? Indy's the best team in the NFL, and should murderize lowly Tennessee, right? Not so fast. Indy has a pretty weak rushing defense, while Tennessee has a pretty strong rushing game, and a QB who just happens to have the wheels to run a little bit as well. Tennessee is coming together as a team, and Indy hasn't really been blowing people all out all season. Combine Tennessee's ability to possibly control the clock with the run, and their playmaking defense and special teams, and I like my chances for a close game here.
Indy also has Jacksonville on deck, which is a game that probably means more to them.
Detroit Lions +13 (-105)
Nearly 2 TD's here and they cannot give the Lions away. But, the way I see it, this is a "meaningless" non-conference game for NE. They know they will beat the shitty Lions, the question is just "by how much"?
This just looks like a pitiful spot for NE, with divisional rival Miami on deck, who is on a roll and always plays the Pats tough....and that (combined with what Udog88 pointed out about the Pats pass D vs the Lions pass O) should be enough to keep this one within the spread.
2.5 units each
San Francisco 49ers +7 (+100)
The Saints just keep piling up offensive numbers at an alarming pace, scoring points, and covering.
As a result, their lines keep going up.
BUT, SF has one hell of a rushing game, while I don't find the N.O. rushing defense to be the most impressive i've ever seen.
SF should be able to do plenty to keep the Saints possessions limited today.
New Orleans is also prone to turning the ball over sometimes, which is bad news when you're laying points.
Rushing is good. Turnovers are bad. Gimme SF in a possible upset.
Buffalo Bills +6.5 (-105)
I don't want to go too much into this play, as I'm a homer and don't want to mislead anyone with things I may see in the Bills that don't mean alot except to the fan who has hopes that the Bills will once again be a good team one of these years, lol....but lets just say I think this line is off just a tad.
Buffalo gets no respect, San Diego gets alot of respect....and rightly so because they are a good team....but this is too much.
Another thing I like is that SD has Denver and KC on deck, and very may well overlook the 5-6 Bills.
Cleveland Browns +5
Well, the Browns suck ass. They got beat 30-0 by Cincinnati last week, while KC is on a bit of a roll. Why isnt this +10 or more? The Browns have no chance today!! Right?
Not in my opinion.
You cannot judge a team (good or bad) on one performance, unless you want "the man" to get richer at your expense....and too often people do, and the books know this. So it's best to play a team off an ugly performance, because you're getting a favorable line, and therefore a better chance to cover.
Before that ugly loss to Cincinnati, they had been competitive all season, finding ways to hang around in games, and pull off a few wins here and there. What's weird, is that Cincinnati is the only team to blow out the Browns this year, and they did it twice. Other than their games vs Cincy, they've been in every game, and they've played a pretty darn tough schedule.
As I've been saying for weeks, I think the Browns are far better than people give them credit for, and have a shot at winning this game outright as their young team continues to improve.
2 units each
San Francisco 49ers ML +275
Buffalo Bills ML +250
Cleveland Browns ML +200
½ unit each