Daddy Diego
11-20-2006, 05:20 AM
Let me know what you think... Few things that got me excited about this game... I'm goin with the Jags -3.5, and here's 10 reasons why...
1) Line movement, Giants have gotten the sacred +3.5 or +4 in every sportsbook now despite having public majority.
2) Wind = shitty day for Eli. Should be gusting at a solid 20 mph.
3) Giants are goin on the road after some tough love the past three weeks at home. Not known to rebound, you might be confused by the fact that the Giants are...
-5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
-5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
* This would all make sense if they weren't 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
4) Jags on the other hand are known to bounce back and not against chumps...
-5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
-13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
5) The home team has won the past 7 meetings by an average of 11.85 points. This might be stretching 8 years, but the Jags aren't bringing that average down (avg win margin = 14.67)
6) Giants might be 3-1 ATS on the road, but Jags are also 4-1 ATS at home.
7) So here's some trends that help the previous one. So the total is set at 38. Seems a little low considering...
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 games as a road underdog.
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
-Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 road games.
-Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
-Over is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
-Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 night games.
* Alls this with the fact that the average total for the Giants on the road has been over 42, and the average total set for the Jags at home is right around 38. Total seems to be favoring one team. So think about why the Jags are 3-0 ATS at home when that over does hit.
8) Eli has slowed down big time! 2 TDs and 3 INTs the past 3 weeks.
9) Plaxico, their only wide out threat is going to be covered by league interception leader Rashean Mathis. Doesn't spell an easy day for Eli who's entering a stadium that is anything by friendly to QBs.
-D. Carr put up an amazing 65.5 rating tossing 16/32 for 167 yards last week. He's got a 69.5% completion percentage on the year, and is tossing 189.6 ypg with a 89.5 rating.
-V. Young tossed 15/36 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 3 picks. Not that he's doing good anywhere, but this was by far his worst game.
-Pennington completed 10/17 for 71 yards including no TD's and 3 picks. Also, the worst game he's had so far this season. A 28.9 game rating for a 76.8 season rated QB.
-Big Ben sucks, including his game in Jacksonville. Completed 17/32 for 141 yards and 2 picks.
-Drew Bledsoe was still firing early in the season, but only put up 16/33 passes for 246 yards, with 1 TD and 3 picks.
* So let's review... Jacksonville has given up 2 passing TD's and nabbed 11 interceptions at home this season. Good Luck Eli...
10) Some averages from the Last 3 Weeks for each team. Things to keep in mind, the Giants have been playing at home the past three weeks, Jacksonville the past two. Tiki is going to have a medicated hand, and the Giants defense is all sorts of banged up.
Average Yards Per Play
ny gets 4.4 / jax gives up 4.0 (-.4)
jax gets 5.6 / ny gives up 4.2 (-1.4)
Yards/Rush
ny gets 4.5 / jax gives up 3.6 (-.9)
jax gets 5.3 / ny gives up 3.1 (-2.2)
* Now compare those to the same numbers for Jacksonville's Home vs. Giants Away
Average Yards Per Play
ny gets 5.9 / jax gives up 4.1 (-1.8)
jax gets 5.5 / ny gives up 5.7 (+.2)
Yards/Rush
ny gets 4.9 / jax gives up 3.5 (-1.4)
jax gets 4.4 / ny gives up 4.3 (-.1)
* You might say, hey it looks like the Giants are going to be putting up bigger numbers on the road!! Well, not so fast. Why not look at the consistency of Jacksonville's defense, compared to the Giants defense once it hits the road. Remember what happens when the Jags hit the over at home.
Other notes:
1) Have to imagine Gerrard will bounce back from last week to solidify himself over Leftwich for the rest of the season. He's only tossed 2 picks the previous two years before last week.
2) That batered "super" Giants defense is runing into a fully functioning top of the line Jacksonville o-line.
Now I'm sure there's just as much you could throw back at me in favor of the Giants, but it's just some food for thought... let me know what you think, or if you can debunk any of my ideas.
1) Line movement, Giants have gotten the sacred +3.5 or +4 in every sportsbook now despite having public majority.
2) Wind = shitty day for Eli. Should be gusting at a solid 20 mph.
3) Giants are goin on the road after some tough love the past three weeks at home. Not known to rebound, you might be confused by the fact that the Giants are...
-5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
-5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
* This would all make sense if they weren't 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
4) Jags on the other hand are known to bounce back and not against chumps...
-5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
-13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
5) The home team has won the past 7 meetings by an average of 11.85 points. This might be stretching 8 years, but the Jags aren't bringing that average down (avg win margin = 14.67)
6) Giants might be 3-1 ATS on the road, but Jags are also 4-1 ATS at home.
7) So here's some trends that help the previous one. So the total is set at 38. Seems a little low considering...
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 games as a road underdog.
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
-Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
-Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 road games.
-Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
-Over is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
-Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 night games.
* Alls this with the fact that the average total for the Giants on the road has been over 42, and the average total set for the Jags at home is right around 38. Total seems to be favoring one team. So think about why the Jags are 3-0 ATS at home when that over does hit.
8) Eli has slowed down big time! 2 TDs and 3 INTs the past 3 weeks.
9) Plaxico, their only wide out threat is going to be covered by league interception leader Rashean Mathis. Doesn't spell an easy day for Eli who's entering a stadium that is anything by friendly to QBs.
-D. Carr put up an amazing 65.5 rating tossing 16/32 for 167 yards last week. He's got a 69.5% completion percentage on the year, and is tossing 189.6 ypg with a 89.5 rating.
-V. Young tossed 15/36 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 3 picks. Not that he's doing good anywhere, but this was by far his worst game.
-Pennington completed 10/17 for 71 yards including no TD's and 3 picks. Also, the worst game he's had so far this season. A 28.9 game rating for a 76.8 season rated QB.
-Big Ben sucks, including his game in Jacksonville. Completed 17/32 for 141 yards and 2 picks.
-Drew Bledsoe was still firing early in the season, but only put up 16/33 passes for 246 yards, with 1 TD and 3 picks.
* So let's review... Jacksonville has given up 2 passing TD's and nabbed 11 interceptions at home this season. Good Luck Eli...
10) Some averages from the Last 3 Weeks for each team. Things to keep in mind, the Giants have been playing at home the past three weeks, Jacksonville the past two. Tiki is going to have a medicated hand, and the Giants defense is all sorts of banged up.
Average Yards Per Play
ny gets 4.4 / jax gives up 4.0 (-.4)
jax gets 5.6 / ny gives up 4.2 (-1.4)
Yards/Rush
ny gets 4.5 / jax gives up 3.6 (-.9)
jax gets 5.3 / ny gives up 3.1 (-2.2)
* Now compare those to the same numbers for Jacksonville's Home vs. Giants Away
Average Yards Per Play
ny gets 5.9 / jax gives up 4.1 (-1.8)
jax gets 5.5 / ny gives up 5.7 (+.2)
Yards/Rush
ny gets 4.9 / jax gives up 3.5 (-1.4)
jax gets 4.4 / ny gives up 4.3 (-.1)
* You might say, hey it looks like the Giants are going to be putting up bigger numbers on the road!! Well, not so fast. Why not look at the consistency of Jacksonville's defense, compared to the Giants defense once it hits the road. Remember what happens when the Jags hit the over at home.
Other notes:
1) Have to imagine Gerrard will bounce back from last week to solidify himself over Leftwich for the rest of the season. He's only tossed 2 picks the previous two years before last week.
2) That batered "super" Giants defense is runing into a fully functioning top of the line Jacksonville o-line.
Now I'm sure there's just as much you could throw back at me in favor of the Giants, but it's just some food for thought... let me know what you think, or if you can debunk any of my ideas.