NFL Week 11

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 87-59 (+72.27 units)

dog ml's 11-12 (+5.55 units) <--½ unit ML plays on all dogs that i play of +7 or less

1pm games:

New England Patriots -5.5 (+100)

I am going against my usual style here, and taking NE.

Here's why...

Green Bay is not that great. They've won 3 of 4, but over a Miami team that was still struggling at the time, a Minny team headed towards the basement IMO, and Arizona who never wins on the road. They lost to Buffalo.

NE on the other hand has lost their last 2, but to the Colts (no shame in that) and to division rival Jets, who are a team headed in the right direction and capable of beating anyone.

Next: Turnovers. Green Bay commits them on a regular basis. They can not and will not beat the Patriots if they turn the ball over

Finally: The spread is under 7. I do not see Green Bay winning this game outright unless they play a perfect game, with no turnovers, and will probably have to force a few of their own....so laying under a TD with New England is the choice for me here.

I think the Pats regroup and bounce back big today against a team they should be able to beat soundly.

Miami Dolphins -3.5 (+109)

Minny is in a downward spiral losing to New England, Green Bay, and SF in their last 3, and scoring a grand total of 27 points in those 3 games, while the Fins are another team riding high after wins over the Bears and KC.

Miami has a tough defense which should give Minny a hard time scoring if they're not the benefactor of turnovers.

Miami also has a recent history of turning it around mid-season and making a late playoff run.

Huge coaching edge to Miami as well IMO, to go along with homefield, and a pretty good defense. Minnesota has never really been a very successful road team either, which should make the homefield advantage even stronger here.

I don't see Minnesota winning this game outright, so laying the minimal points is an easy choice for me to make here.

2.5 units each

Cleveland Browns +4 (+100)

This is an incorrect fave IMHO. The only way a team who can't take care of the ball, can't stop anyone on defense, and is winless on the road can be a road fave, especially one of over a FG, is public perception.

This is a heated rivalry game, and Cleveland usually takes one from Pittsburgh, even when Pittsburgh is the far better team.

Basically, we have 2 teams headed in opposite directions here, and the Brownies continue to be overlooked by the public, even though they have played competitvely in every game this season....giving great value on the home dog.

NY Jets +6 (-105)

The Bears continue to be a team who baffles the public. Beating a severely depleted Giants team last week has the public feeling good about this Bears team again....I guess overlooking the fact that the Jets have played some pretty darn good football lately.

Confidence and motivation are key in the NFL, and I believe both factors should be strong with the Jets today. Jets have to be feeling good about themselves after beating up on NE last week, and with them getting themselves right back into the playoff picture now at 5-4, they know they've gotta keep winning. Looking at the Jets remaining schedule, they have a legit shot at being a 10 win team, and an outside shot at 11 wins....and I believe they know it, and will come out with alot of effort today against the overrated and unpredictable Bears.

The "awesome" Bears defense has struggled defending the run, and hasn't really been that awesome on the road to begin with.

Solid shot at the outright win for the Jets IMO.

2 units each

Cleveland Browns ML +185
NY Jets ML +230

½ unit each

Also strongly considering a play on the Saints yet for 1pm, but wanted to get these plays up while I decide.

[birdsfan5]

GL Stif

[Silver & Black]

BOL today Stif...love the Dolphins play
:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks guys :thumbs:

OK, I'm doing it...

New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+105)

2.5 units

Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up huge yards and huge points to just about everyone they face.

Not many teams have as many playmakers combined with a solid veteran QB like the Saints do. I see the Saints scoring plenty of points today, and controlling time of possession as well.

If the Saints dont turn the ball over and can get a few solid stops on defense, it should be enough.

[Underdog88]

GL today Stif... like everyone except the Fins, but then again it is Minny on the road:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Going to add the night game right away, as I found a line that was way off and took advantage of it...

Denver Broncos ML -130

2.5 units

I see -2.5 (-121) at Pinnacle, and the ML @ -157 there. So if i wait until this book realizes they have a shit line and move it up, i'm going have to either lay at least -3 to get a decent line, or lay nearly as much juice for -2.5 as I did for the ML.

As far as the game, SD has stunk it up since Merriman has been out on defense, getting gashed at home by the Browns of all teams (who would have beaten them by 10+ had they scored some TD's and not kicked 6 field goals), and then giving up 41 to the Bengals last week and were lucky to be facing a hapless defense who gave them 49.

Facing the Broncos at mile high in primetime will be the toughest test for SD this season, and I think they are going to fail miserably.

Oakland
Tennessee
Pittsburgh
SF
Cincinnati
Cleveland
St Louis

What do all of these teams have in common?

They all have a losing record.

What else do they all have in common?

They're the 7 teams SD has beaten this year.

They've faced 2 teams with a winning record (Baltimore and KC) and have lost both games....and they will lose tonight in Denver too.

[ming the merciless]

Like the Donkeys, Stif GL.

Tomlinson won't do much because Shannahan always has a good game plan against the chargers
:yeah:

[Stifler's Mom]

Fuckin Aints should be up 28-10....how many times can you throw an interception in the end zone?

Dildos :puke:

[GoBigOrGoHome]

got any 4pm plays stif?

[Stifler's Mom]

Just Dallas right now for sure....but waiting and hoping for a better line as I think the public will continue to pound the crap out of Indy right up until gametime, and the books will eventually have to bend a little, despite having (IMO) huge sharp money on Dallas.

Unsure about the other 2 games at this point....bit might be playing either Ariz or SF.

Didn't have much time to look at those this morning, and I've been busy watching games since 1:00. Guess I should get to it and decide, lol

[GoBigOrGoHome]

thanks stif will tail you no doubt as im more of a college capper. see your from pa, im in allentown, how close are you?

[Stifler's Mom]

Ever heard of Hamburg? Less than half an hour away, lol

[Stifler's Mom]

Dallas +1 (-105)

2.5 units

The Saints, Jets and Miami are fucking killing me.

All 3 should be covering EZ and they keep screwing up.

[Qtip123]

at least Miami and NE came through for ya! Not with you on the Dallas game...I just can't bet against Manning, especially wikth the line being where it is........

[Stifler's Mom]

Worst roughing the passer call in the history of the NFL was just called on Dallas.

Unreal.

"We love you Peyton....oh yes we do...."

Fucking :puke:

[luckyone1717]

I was even laughing at that. I did not know it was a penalty to basically shake hands with the opposing player LOL. He basically bumped into Manning because he did not realize he was there. Manning did not even colem close to going to the ground. Very poor call.

[Stifler's Mom]

Vanderjagt = worst kicker in the NFL

Dallas has a bad habit of picking up washed up losers....

[luckyone1717]

That guy is from Canada too. He's a solid kicker, he just never seems to kick well when his team needs him the most.

Also Stiff do you think Dallas will mouth a comeback? I have Indy ML and I am wondering if you think I should try and middle with Dallas -0.5 for second half??

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, Brees with 510 yards passing and yet I lose. I just have to laugh at crap like that.

And yes, I still think Dallas wins SU...

Dallas Cowgirls pk (2H) -110

2 units

I would have unloaded on this had I not already had 2.5 units on them for the game at +1

[luckyone1717]

I got Dalls -0.5(+118) for 2ndHalf

Thanks alot for your help.

:)

[Stifler's Mom]

Sorry it took me so long to reply.

When the line originally came out, one of the books I use had Dallas +0.5 -110. I tried to nail that big time, and it was down to pk -120 till I even hit the submit button....so i was waiting till that dropped to pk -110 until i made my play, and was busy watching the line.

Glad you got in though. Hope it cashes :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

By the way, the book I made the Denver ML -130 play at is up to Denver ML -160 now.

Even if the play loses, I sorta win, saving over 3/4 of a unit just because they were asleep at the wheel, lol

[luckyone1717]

and if it's a close game then I have a pretty good shot. Thanks for all your help. Not to worry I still had a few minutes. I was probably going to pull the trigger anyway, but it's always nice to get someone elses opinion. You have been around this place for a long time and I am sure there is a good reason for that. You are a winner, I respect you opinion, and thanks very much for it.

[Personafied]

You stopped me from playing the GB/NEWENGLAND game, I just avoided it since you had New England, I would have played GB.....Thanks :)

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks guys. I'll always offer what I can to help if someone wants to know what i'm thinking. But I would suggest to always just use what you read from me, or any other capper here, as additional info or an extra opinion to what you already think, and make the final decision for yourself.

Personafied - Welcome :thumbs:

I WAS going to play Green Bay myself early in the week. I circled that line as soon as it came out as one I knew the public would be strongly on the away fave, and it looked like a no brainer for me to take the home dog, considering my playing style. Public 70%+ on the Pats, Green Bay a pretty big home dog, etc etc....

Then I thought about it....

I think the books actually opened that line at Pats -4, thinking they'd get pretty even action with the public down a bit on the Patriots, and up on Green Bay with them having looked better lately. Sort of a generic line to get money on both sides, not caring who covered.

Then when the public liked New England early, the books quickly moved it to -6.5 to try and even things out....telling me they realized they made a mistake on the original line....and that the line may have actually been in my favor to take the Pats, not the Packers.

Then the more I thought about it, I realized that the line would have been at least at NE -10, had they not just lost to Indy and the Jets, and Green Bay not won 3 of 4 against some pretty bad teams.

I didn't predict or expect 35-0, but I did think the Patroits had a much better chance of covering than Green Bay did, so I had to go against my normal thinking pattern of taking home dogs against the public and take the Pats.

One basic rule I'm trying to live by from this season on...

If you can't offer a solid write up or reason for a play, it's probably not worth playing....and I couldn't come up with a single solid reason to back GB today.

"Manning rules" or "The Browns suck" is not good reasoning....but then again neither is "Green Bay is a home dog so they're worth a shot"

That's the strange thing I've been learning after that horrible baseball season I had by trying to play anti-public all season, and refusing to see both sides of the story.

The public isn't always wrong, and if you can figure out when they're right, you can increase your profits big time.

Don't get me wrong, I still favor home dogs and anti-public plays big time, lol....but at the same time, if i can't come up with some valid reasons to play the anti-public play, I've learned that the public may be right, and I stay away or even side with the public....and so far it's been ok.

Wow, that was long, lol

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, that was tough to root against the Colts. My 7 yr old daughter loves them, and normally if I don't like Indy, I stay away cause i hate to root against her cause I like to see her exicited when they win, but the money was riding with Dallas today cause they were one strong play IMO :gulp:

[larry4498]

Originally posted by Qtip123
I just can't bet against Manning, especially wikth the line being where it is........


That was the first clue:beer2:

[Stifler's Mom]

Nice game by SD.

And lets just say um....Denver isn't exactly what I thought they were. There's just no excuse for giving up a 17 point lead on your home field if you're a contender that is supposed to have a good defense. None.

[ming the merciless]

well, I like to try to give Jake the fake 2nd chances, but after AFC championship game last year, we here in denver see his poor decision making when the game is on the line. Hell, Cutler could hand the ball off for 40 minutes a game.IMO he has a more accurate pass than Jake. Oh well, you win some and you lose some. I might have to fade the donks on Thanksgiving, but it would be nice to see the cowgirls finally win a Thanksgiving game. It's been a few years.:yeah:

[GoBigOrGoHome]

god damn broncos :flush: looking forward to see who you like tonight. im thinking about teasing giants and the under