ATP-SHANGHAI

[Horatio]

just starting the thread...

Taking Davydenko -360 over Robredo Davydenko has been playing extremely well, and I think he handles the Spaniard.

"Davydenko, 25, comes into Shanghai on a roll, winning 11 of his last 13 matches."

I have been going back and forth on Ljubicic over Roddick at a virtual pickem. Ljubi has disappointed me at times,especially at the US Open but I am still tempted to take him over Roddick indoors. But Conners being in Shanghai with Roddick makes me pause...

Ljubicic is extremely tough indoors as we all know...

"Ljubicic leads the ATP circuit for most indoor match wins this season with a 19-3 record. (Federer is 12-0)."

CNote if you are lurking, WW, what's the thinking here??

[coreyschucky]

I hope Davydenko rips Boredo a new one. Davydenko is my dark horse in this round robin tourney. In the end I think Federer wins it but Davydenko is definetly coming into this tourney with the best form. As for Ljubicic/Roddick I lean towards Roddick. Both have slight injuries heading into this match and neither has great form at the moment. Just think Roddick has the better chance. Will be an all serve match.

Good Luck Horatio!!!!:thumbs:

[WayneWonder]

Week-to-Date: 0-0 (+/- 0.00 units)

Ljubicic -103 3 units

[Horatio]

on Ljubi and added a small play on Roddick, just becasue of a gut feeling and CNote's comment.I think Roddick has improved mentally since getting Connors in his corner.No way I see him winning it really, but who knows.If Federer is in the shape he claims, no one except maybe Nalbandian will do much with him. GL the rest of the way, I have added another unit to Davydenko.He has just been playing sooo well of late. other players are remarking on how is game is dialed in...:gulp:

[Horatio]

at -149 against Blake, who is 2-0 lifetime against him .I am tempted to go for the underdog, and would not hesitate except that he played poorly coming into this tournament, and according to everyone the surface is kindlier to clay courters than the faster court was last year.
However, Nadal had injury problems in the past few weeks as well. Mentally, there is little question of who is the stronger player:the Spaniard.
When it is said and done, probably a small play on Rafa.
What is on anyone's mind here? GL:gulp:

[BeyondTheGame]

I think the plays here are with the favourites - Rafa and Davy. I havent been really impressed with the overall play of Blake even though he holds the 2-0 record again. I dont think that 2-0 record means much - as both games were in the States @ the Open and Indian Wells. I always believe James Blake plays better in the States excluding the lead up events to the Us Open - Cincy, New Haven and Washington. I believe Nadal hasnt had much to play for in the recent Indoor Hard Court events, as he was already qualified for the Masters cup. If you look at his record before the Stockholm tourney on the Indoor courts he was doing very well. I believe this tournament will give him more to play for than the previous two he entered.

ATP Masters Cup

4 * Rafel Nadal v James Blake - Nadal to win @ $1.65

Week To Date 0-0

[Horatio]

Rafa trying to close out the second set to even the match. This is where Blake's mental toguhness makes one wonder.
I ended up with a 1/2 unit on Blake, simply due to both H to H and surface. I would have preferred a faster court, but this one appears fast enough.
:gulp:

[vazman05]

wow...blake with 6 mp's....:bang:

[vazman05]

nadal goes down

[Horatio]

Was expecting a 3 setter, and frankly an unraveling by Blake, not a spinout by Rafa. Rafa remains king on clay, but on other surfaces, he is not quite there yet. Blake played well, however...

[coreyschucky]

Originally posted by Horatio
Was expecting a 3 setter, and frankly an unraveling by Blake, not a spinout by Rafa. Rafa remains king on clay, but on other surfaces, he is not quite there yet. Blake played well, however...

I would be suprised to see Nadal win a match here. He is in horrible shape as he hardly practised the last few weeks due to injury. From what i've read Blake basically dominated the match with the exception of a few pts. Well done James!!!!

[BeyondTheGame]

Gees that would be me retiring from Tennis - He had like 2 Breaks on him in that 2nd Set up like 4-0...
:(

Will Stick to Soccer methinks.

[Horatio]

Blake was down 4-0 in the second set however. I was worried about Rafa's abdominal strain, but he lost that match closer to the throat than the stomach. Blake did look good...now I need Davydenko.not to choke away against Robredo:gulp:

[Horatio]

Davydenko already down an early break...:bang: :bang:

[vazman05]

davydenko takes the 1st set...

[tt boy]

then gets thrashed in the 2nd set..typical donkey..probably lose it now:flush:
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[coreyschucky]

Originally posted by tt boy
then gets thrashed in the 2nd set..typical donkey..probably lose it now:flush:

Not typical of him at all. Davy is one of the most consistent players on tour. Davydenko hardly ever chokes and always fights. Up a break in the 3rd.

[Horatio]

6-1 in the third :gulp: :prtytme: :gulp:

[Horatio]

-132, primarily because Ljubi does not seem with it....perhaps due to this excuse offered:"The Croatian, who claims he was ill in bed for 17 days after his defeat by Andy Murray in Madrid,"...
Nalbandian beat Ljubi here last year as well. So despite a 2-3 lifetime record against the Croat, David gets the nod here.:gulp: I usually love Ljubicic on carpet, so I will keep going over this one. I just do not get the sense that he is altogether into it at this tournament.

[coreyschucky]

Originally posted by Horatio
-132, primarily because Ljubi does not seem with it....perhaps due to this excuse offered:"The Croatian, who claims he was ill in bed for 17 days after his defeat by Andy Murray in Madrid,"...
Nalbandian beat Ljubi here last year as well. So despite a 2-3 lifetime record against the Croat, David gets the nod here.:gulp:

Ljubicic has some sort of problem i really can't remember what it was. He was in bed and didn't really practice much heading into this. I don't really trust Nalby but if Ljubicic serve isn't on which it wasn't against Roddick he really doesn't have much else to offer.

[Horatio]

of his match with Roddick and he looked sluggish. I thought it might be rust, but to be in bed 17 days, if true, is more serious than just rust. I don't care much for Nalbandian's attitude at times (he blew off his loss to Fedex in an unnecessary way I thought) but...he needs a W badly here (of course so does Ljubi). I suspect I stick with Nalbandian despite my consistent appreciation in the past of Ljubicic's indoor game.

[recovering77]

I bet a few bucks on Lubicic, I think he's the better player if they're both healthy. Also bet a few bucks that the match goes 3 sets. Can't forget those 3 set thrillers Nalby has done all season.

[Horatio]

Looking extremely sharp, Roddick to serve for 1st set...wonder if he can break through to a 2-11 lifetime record against Federer, or seize up...

I hate betting against Ljubi indoors, and don't really like Nalbandian's high wire act. I probably should have stayed away from such a match.

[Horatio]

Whether or not Roddick wins this match, I am pretty impressed with the strides he has made under Connors.
He does not look tentative out there at net, and is taking the ball earlier and earlier on returns.He clearly has Federer feeling the pressure.I suspect Fedex gears up his game here and wins out, but not many people will be able to handle the newer version of Roddick that is being crafted by Connors.
:gulp:

[BeyondTheGame]

Looks like we got a game on our hands again Fellas.

Fed-Ex wins - in a 3 Set game nice game.

Nalbandian gets broken down 3-0 then breaks back and gets it back to 3-3

Edit: Good To see Nalbandian get the 1st set and the break in the 2nd.

Edit 2: At least one of us one a bet Recovering - :(

[recovering77]

bad pick on lubicic, but go a winner with a 3 setter for fed and roddick.

[recovering77]

yay, 3 setter comes through for me. This match is split right down the middle though, but I think Lubicic has some momentum carrying from set 2.

[recovering77]

nalbandian is done 0-15 or 15-30 in every game but manages to save msot of them.

[Horatio]

comes through....I felt bad betting against a character I have profited from for a couple of years, but that 17 day in bed thing got me...oh well, c'est la vie. He is a different guy indoors. that is for sure.:gulp:

[WayneWonder]

Wednesday Plays

Blake -127
Robredo +394

[recovering77]

like the exact opposite of you. Robredo is a nice value play, but I'm pretty sure Nadal will win.

Davydenko is my man, and I was about to bet a lot on him, but then I saw that he's 0-4 head to head vs blake.

might pass on that match now.

[WayneWonder]

The way things have been going for me recovering, it would probabaly be wise to take the opposite of what I play. I have had a rough last few weeks, esp. in NFL.

Just woke up and turned on Blake match. It appears they are tied up at one set each. Let's see how this plays out.

[recovering77]

just woke up to jinx myself. davydenko up a break 4-2 in the second set. As soon as I turn on the tv, **ROAR*** " blake is back in this match"

all downhill from there.

way to choke davy.

[recovering77]

I hadn't gotten a shot to see blake play live in a very long time. Fuck Davydenko's serve, Blake's is so fast it's amazing.

well im down 1700 dollars since last night now, and dug myself into quite the hole again. Can't bet it once and break even anymore, so I gotta take it slow and steady, and look for the best games.

[recovering77]

wtf is with tommy robredo these days. inconsistent as hell against nobodies and now playing Nadal like he's Davydenko or something, or should I say Blake. pushing him to the limit.


Robredo is winning 100% of his first serve points. Nadal has only scored twice on his serve.

[recovering77]

wtf is going on here, where is this new robredo coming from?

This is the last fucking time I bet on someone I'm older than.

Nadal, seriously WTF is wrong with u. ur a -450 favorite and ur getting completely outplayed by someone who lost to Wayne Arthurs a couple of weeks ago. get it fucking together.


Sorry, just some random rants and raves. Nadal is never a good play. His lines are highly inflated, even against people that can actually beat him.

[recovering77]

tiebreak, u can make up for all those mistakes u made on robredo, and missing out on two break points in different games.

[WayneWonder]

Thursday Plays

James Blake is the first man to have secured a semifinal spot here in Shaghai. Roddick needs a win coupled with a Federer victory, to make the semifinals. Federer simply needs to beat Ljubicic. The only way for Ivan to make it is with a win over Federer.

Ljubicic played some gutsy tennis down a set and with Nalbandian just two points from victory, coming back to win, firing 30 aces in the process. Federer does not appear to be in top form yet, although his comeback against Roddick from down two match points was impressive to say the least. Ljubicic knows he must win and the only way he has a chance is to throw in huge serves, one after the next. He, like Roddick, has an awful career mark against Federer, but played him tough last time out, losing 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 7-6(6) in the finals at Miami earlier this year. I'll play this one to go three sets. I like Fed-Ex in the end though.

Will Roger Federer win 2-1? Yes +349

No play on Roddick, who should win. There is not much value in Roddick at -269, and I am not confident that he will be able to close out Nalbandian in two sets. David should be desperate to post any positive results after losing two straight matches in which he led after the first set. I think this is another match that goes the distance and if somebody put a gun to my head, I would play Roddick to win 2-1 at +325.

[recovering77]

I hit my miracle parlays today and broke even so I won't be needing to bet tennis, unless it's for shits and giggles which ti usually is for me.

I haven't seen the lines yet cuz 5 dimes has been down since I hit my parlay.

I would do a small play on Lubi, a play on 3 sets for the match, and who is roddick playing again?

Nalbandian right? I would take whoever the underdog in that match is, probably Nalbandian. I don't trust Roddick to beat anyone thats any good. He breezes through the no names, maybe gets 1 or two in the upper rounds, but chokes late.

[Pwn3dyo]

I'm on Nalbandian too. GL guys.

[recovering77]

u know what?

we should just bet on both the matches going to 3 sets.

When was the last time a nalbandian match didn't go 3? lol

when was the last time Roddick beat someone good in straights? neverrr.

[Horatio]

I hate round robins.Got any ideas about whether Blake really shows up to play Robredo?? Any other ideas for that matter? Sheesh I have enjoyed watching this tournament, but I am gonna hate betting round robins next year.:bang:

[coreyschucky]

Blake's not the type of player to give up on a match. I don't think he'll have a letdown. Blake will win it in two. Remember they make something like $100,000+ for every win in the TMC so there is certain motivation.

[Horatio]

I was not really try to imply that Blake would tank...I just gotta onder about whether it would just be human nature to not really leave it all on the court knowing he is assured of advancing.Thanks for the info bro.:gulp:

[Pwn3dyo]

im taking davydenko today. goodluck all.

[recovering77]

I read on another forum that Davydenko is sick with the flu?

Davydenko's my man though, I'll bet on him just for support.

Considering a play on blake, but that whole nothing to play for thing really is getting to me.

EDIT: so a win in this match wouldn't help him avoid a meeting with Federer right away?

[Horatio]

Federer, the winner of the Davydenko/Rafa match will....

[recovering77]

betting all these props are fun.

Davydenko first set winner
Match goes to three sets

lost on Davydenko though.

Was gonna bet more on blake, but I think that's enough for now.

[recovering77]

u would think that some players would have enough class to actually try and win a match that doesn't matter.

Robredo is murdering Blake on the first serve. dumb bitchass, I'm about to put Blake on my DNP list.

[tt boy]

yep..blake manages to go down to tommy loser..why doesn't that surprise me:pud: :ohman: :surrend:
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[Horatio]

I knew the results of the Fedex/Nadal match, but even in way delayed replay, the match, and especially the last two points of that match, were as sweet as I have seen in some time.Amazing players, both of them:prtytme: