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WayneWonder
11-06-2006, 03:49 PM
RED GROUP

2. Maria Sharapova (RUS) (+181)

*56-8 YTD

Sharapova comes in as arguably the hottest player on tour. She won the last major of the season, The US Open, and has put together a 16-match win streak. Her only loss since the start of the Open came in a W/O against Anna Chakvetadze. She has experience here at the TC, compiling a 6-3 record and twice making the semis. She has never won a title, but is in a three-way race with Henin and Mauresmo to finish the year at No. 1.

7. Elena Dementieva (RUS) (+2600)

*47-18 YTD

Elena is just 4-4 since the US Open, with a lowlight loss to 95th ranked A. Radwanska. She hasn't fared well in the TC, never advancing out of Round 1, while compiling a 3-11 record. She does not have a winning record against any of the other seven ladies in the Championship.

6. Kim Clijsters (BEL) (+642)

*41-10 YTD

Clijsters is an intriguing prospect at these odds. She has dominated the other three players in her group all time yet is an unknown due to injuries. She played last week in Haslett, winning the tournament, although the competition was less than stellar. Her 13-4 career record at the TC is best amongst the field and she has won both times she made the finals. Kim was in great form before having to withdraw from the Open and was on the short list of favorites, for sure. She should be able to advance in this group, but is 0-5 this year against yellow group faves Henin and Mauresmo.

4. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) (+1062)

*59-18 YTD

Svetlana has seemed to struggle against top-flight competition at times this season. Other times she was arguably the best woman on tour. She won all three from Momo and beat Sharapova in their only meeting this year. But each time she squared off against JHH, she lost. (0-5 this year, 1-12 all-time). She could easily make it out of this group and if she could avoid Henin, would be a good a bet as anyone to win the whole thing.

YELLOW GROUP



1. Amélie Mauresmo (FRA) (+701)

*48-12 YTD

She comes in battling for the No. 1 spot and benefitting from a pretty favorable draw (for her). She is 6-2 in 2006 vs. the ladies in her group. The TC has been kind to Mauresmo as she is 9-7 all-time, having made it out of her group the L3 years. She has also played in two finals, winning one. The best season of Mauresmo's life began here last season with a win, and included victories at both the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. Both her victories over Henin came in Grand Slam finals, putting to rest any talk of mental toughness, while raising some questions about JHH. Barring a letdown, she should easily make it out of her group and holds favorable records vs. the women in the red group. (3-0 in '06 v. Clijsters, 3-1 all-time v. Sahrapova)

3. Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) (+327)

*56-7 YTD

Justine is one of the faves, but not quite the slam dunk some might think. She has been the most consistent woman on tour all season, with only 7 losses, but three of those seven have come in Grand Slam finals. She has never made it past the SF's of the TC (4-4 all-time) and has been off since September 17th. Should easily advance but could be vulnerable in the SF's or beyond.

5. Nadia Petrova (RUS) (+999)

*47-17

Longshot to make it out of the yellow group. Only 1-2 all-time at TC with awful H2H records vs. both JHH and Momo. (2-8, 2-5 respectively). Thanks for playing, Nadia.

8. Martina Hingis (SUI) (+2026)

*52-17

Could not have asked for a worse draw. She has not beat any of the women in her group since her comeback earlier this year. In fact just 4-11 against the field this year. She is a great player and it is wonderful that she has been able to make the Top 8 in her first year back. But the ride ends here for Hingis.

MY PICKS

After reading all of the write-ups, I am going to play 5 units on each of the following:

Mauresmo +701....5 to win 35.05

Sharapova +181....5 to win 9.05

Kuznetsova +1062....5 to win 53.10

WayneWonder
11-06-2006, 10:29 PM
Tuesday Plays

Mauresmo -127

Interesting line here. Mauresmo is a slight fave (Petrova is priced at +117) over Petrova, who enters in top form. She has made the finals in each of her last three tournaments. She was especially deadly last week at Linz, with convincing (think 6-1, 6-2) wins over Peer (#22), Stosur (#30), and Vaidisova (#11) before running into Sharapova in the final. Petrova is tied with JHH with the most titles won this year, at five, but Momo is right behind her with four, including two Grand Slams.

Mauresmo knows what is at stake knowing she must win the tournament to maintain her number one ranking. Mauresmo has won all three H2H meetings with Petrova on hard courts.

The meetings between these two have been pretty routine in the past, with five of the last seven ending in straight sets. This is their first meeting at the Championships.

paco-g
11-07-2006, 06:04 AM
Originally posted by WayneWonder
Tuesday Plays

Mauresmo -127

Interesting line here. Mauresmo is a slight fave (Petrova is priced at +117) over Petrova, who enters in top form. She has made the finals in each of her last three tournaments. She was especially deadly last week at Linz, with convincing (think 6-1, 6-2) wins over Peer (#22), Stosur (#30), and Vaidisova (#11) before running into Sharapova in the final. Petrova is tied with JHH with the most titles won this year, at five, but Momo is right behind her with four, including two Grand Slams.

Mauresmo knows what is at stake knowing she must win the tournament to maintain her number one ranking. Mauresmo has won all three H2H meetings with Petrova on hard courts.

The meetings between these two have been pretty routine in the past, with five of the last seven ending in straight sets. This is their first meeting at the Championships.

Petrova beat Mauresmo in Qatar this year, on a hard court.

Qatar Total Open (2)
Feb 27-Mar 4 Hard
Second Round Eleni Daniilidou W 6-1, 6-2
Quarterfinals Na Li W 6-4, 6-4
Semifinals Ai Sugiyama W 6-1, 7-6 (7-2)
Final Amelie Mauresmo (1) W 6-3, 7-5

Still agree with your play here.... may put 2 units on mauresmo if the line drops any more.

WayneWonder
11-07-2006, 08:28 AM
Paco...thanks for the heads up. On the WTA site this is what they had listed....


2006 Doha Carpet (O) F N. PETROVA 6-3 7-5

recovering77
11-07-2006, 02:17 PM
Mauresmo goes down in straight sets. blower.

parlay sharapova and Henine Hardenne for -140 or something i believe. dont see 2/3 favs going down.

WayneWonder
11-08-2006, 08:02 AM
0-1 WTD (-1 unit)

Sharapova played a good match yesterday against Dementieva, but Elena lost it more than Maria won it. Dementieva threw in 15 double faults and had her serve broke seven times in nine games. Sharapova only served at 53% and had her serve broken three times.

Kim Clijster enters in top form, fresh off a title in Haslett last week. She has always played Sharapova tough, leading the H2H 4-1. Maria posted her first victory over Clijsters earlier this year in San Diego, a two-set, 7-5 victory.

Much was made about Maria finally breaking through against both Clijsters and Mauresmo earlier this year, both of whom she had been winless against. A victory here for Maria would bode very well for her chances of advancing into the SF round. Well, she will need another US Open style performance to defeat Clijsters this afternoon.

Clijsters +190 2 units

Sharapova to win 2-1? Yes +311 2 units