dbuono
11-05-2006, 01:47 PM
Week 9 pick
1600 Game
Pitt -3
This is how these two match-up on both sides of the ball:
Pitt offense- Rank 10th overall and 10th in scoring at 22.4 PPG. They rank 7th overall averaging 234.6 PYPG and are averaging 110.6 RYPG. Pitt has no problems moving the ball on offense, it has been Roethlisbergers interception that have hurt them.
Denver offense- Rank 19th overall and 27th overall in scoring at 15.7 PPG. They rank 30th overall averaging 155.7 PYPG and are averaging 155.3 RYPG. Denver’s offense has clearly revolved around a sound running game as Plummer has done nothing all year. Plummer has just 5 T.D. compared to 7 Int. and has a Q.B. rating of just 65.2.
Pitt defense- Rank 6th overall giving up just 276.6 YPG. They are 3rd in sacks (22), and 2nd in interceptions (12)
Denver defense- Rank 10th overall giving up 295.6 YPG. They are 2nd in scoring at 11.1 PPG.
My impressions:
Pitt is in a must win situation at home. Pitt has averaged 31 PPG at home while Denver as averaged just 14.7 PPG on the road. Pitt is better defensively statistically as they give up 3.4 YPR and 5.8 YPP compared to Denver’s 3.7 YPR and 5.9 YPP. A lot of talk has been around Denver defense not giving up any points, but look at who they have played. On offense, Pitt is much better statistically passing the ball at 7.5 YPP compared to Denver’s 5.7 YPP. Denver does have the edge statistically in RYPG at 4.8 YPR compared to Pitt 3.8 YPR. Denver will have a hard time matching those rushing numbers against a great Pitt defense which ranks 8th overall giving up just 92.8 RYPG.
Bottom line:
Denver does not match up well against Pitt. They have no passing game, and will have a hard time running against Pitt run defense. Pitt is desperate. As long as Roethlisberger doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, they should win. I like Pitt at home by a score of 24-13.
Trends:
- Roethlisberger is 12-3 at home as a starter.
- Denver is 1-5 ATS vs. NFC North
- Denver is 5-15-1 ATS when O/U line is <40 points
- Pitt won in Denver last year 34-17.
1600 Game
Pitt -3
This is how these two match-up on both sides of the ball:
Pitt offense- Rank 10th overall and 10th in scoring at 22.4 PPG. They rank 7th overall averaging 234.6 PYPG and are averaging 110.6 RYPG. Pitt has no problems moving the ball on offense, it has been Roethlisbergers interception that have hurt them.
Denver offense- Rank 19th overall and 27th overall in scoring at 15.7 PPG. They rank 30th overall averaging 155.7 PYPG and are averaging 155.3 RYPG. Denver’s offense has clearly revolved around a sound running game as Plummer has done nothing all year. Plummer has just 5 T.D. compared to 7 Int. and has a Q.B. rating of just 65.2.
Pitt defense- Rank 6th overall giving up just 276.6 YPG. They are 3rd in sacks (22), and 2nd in interceptions (12)
Denver defense- Rank 10th overall giving up 295.6 YPG. They are 2nd in scoring at 11.1 PPG.
My impressions:
Pitt is in a must win situation at home. Pitt has averaged 31 PPG at home while Denver as averaged just 14.7 PPG on the road. Pitt is better defensively statistically as they give up 3.4 YPR and 5.8 YPP compared to Denver’s 3.7 YPR and 5.9 YPP. A lot of talk has been around Denver defense not giving up any points, but look at who they have played. On offense, Pitt is much better statistically passing the ball at 7.5 YPP compared to Denver’s 5.7 YPP. Denver does have the edge statistically in RYPG at 4.8 YPR compared to Pitt 3.8 YPR. Denver will have a hard time matching those rushing numbers against a great Pitt defense which ranks 8th overall giving up just 92.8 RYPG.
Bottom line:
Denver does not match up well against Pitt. They have no passing game, and will have a hard time running against Pitt run defense. Pitt is desperate. As long as Roethlisberger doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, they should win. I like Pitt at home by a score of 24-13.
Trends:
- Roethlisberger is 12-3 at home as a starter.
- Denver is 1-5 ATS vs. NFC North
- Denver is 5-15-1 ATS when O/U line is <40 points
- Pitt won in Denver last year 34-17.