Stifler's Mom
11-05-2006, 11:55 AM
ytd 70-54 (+45.18 units)
dog ml's (included in ytd): 8-10 (+3.91)
1pm games:
Buffalo Bills -3 (-125)
Green Bay beats horrible Miami and crappy Arizona (who I believe packed it in for the season after blowing the Chicago game), and now all of a sudden the public loves Favre and co again?
I'm not buying it. All I heard was how bad GB sucks and that Favre should have retired up until 2 weeks ago.
I believe Buf is favored for a reason here....and I see those reasons as:
Buffalo has enough speed on defense to force the issue with Favre, who will sling the ball around and make mistakes when constantly pressured, and because GB's pass defense is horrible, and the Bills speed and playmaking ability at WR should be able to exploit that, which would also open up running lanes for McGahee.
Not thrilled about the -125 juice, but it's not going any lower either unless I wanted to lay -3.5 points.
Miami Dolphins +14 (-115)
What a roller coaster love affair the pub has with Chicago. Completely in love with them after routing Buffalo and Seattle....until the Bears let em down and torch em at Arizona on SNF, then they decide they're overrated....taking crappy SF +16 at nearly 50% last week @ Chicago....despite that SF lost by 41 @ KC just a few weeks prior, and have no chance of covering from the opening whistle.
Now after pounding SF, they decide they're worth a play (83%) at -14 again and that Grossman is once again the next Joe Montana....after just not trusting him to be able to score on the horrible Niners.
I don't think the public can figure this team out....and the Bears will be a team who will burn them all year long.
I like Miami to keep this close by running the football, punting, and playing field position. I think the Miami defense can do enough to keep this game low scoring if they're not put in bad position by turnovers....and that's all I need with a 2 TD spread.
2.5 units each
Washington Redskins +3 (+110)
This is a desperate game for Washington here to save their season. 2-6 basically = elimination. Not acceptable for a team with high expectations whose not going thru a rebuilding period....and with 2 weeks to prepare, I'm going with the home team in this one, and banking that Romo is gonna not be the next Brady. I think he'll come down a little after looking pretty good last week. A little sophmore jinx perhaps, lol
Detroit +6 (-105)
I believe Atlanta's last 2 wins were a bit deceiving. Pittsburgh committed a ton of turnovers 2 weeks ago, leading directly to about 28 Atlanta points....and Cincinnati cannot stop the run....and they still barely won those games.
Detroit gets a ton of players back this week....which should help too.
Also an 81%+ system play is involved here, saying to play on any team as a +6 point or higher home underdog off the bye week.
2 units each
Washington Redskins ML +155
Detroit Lions ML +220
½ unit each
This might be it for me for the 1pm games, unless I stumble across something else I may have missed and decide that I really like.
GLTA today :prtytme:
dog ml's (included in ytd): 8-10 (+3.91)
1pm games:
Buffalo Bills -3 (-125)
Green Bay beats horrible Miami and crappy Arizona (who I believe packed it in for the season after blowing the Chicago game), and now all of a sudden the public loves Favre and co again?
I'm not buying it. All I heard was how bad GB sucks and that Favre should have retired up until 2 weeks ago.
I believe Buf is favored for a reason here....and I see those reasons as:
Buffalo has enough speed on defense to force the issue with Favre, who will sling the ball around and make mistakes when constantly pressured, and because GB's pass defense is horrible, and the Bills speed and playmaking ability at WR should be able to exploit that, which would also open up running lanes for McGahee.
Not thrilled about the -125 juice, but it's not going any lower either unless I wanted to lay -3.5 points.
Miami Dolphins +14 (-115)
What a roller coaster love affair the pub has with Chicago. Completely in love with them after routing Buffalo and Seattle....until the Bears let em down and torch em at Arizona on SNF, then they decide they're overrated....taking crappy SF +16 at nearly 50% last week @ Chicago....despite that SF lost by 41 @ KC just a few weeks prior, and have no chance of covering from the opening whistle.
Now after pounding SF, they decide they're worth a play (83%) at -14 again and that Grossman is once again the next Joe Montana....after just not trusting him to be able to score on the horrible Niners.
I don't think the public can figure this team out....and the Bears will be a team who will burn them all year long.
I like Miami to keep this close by running the football, punting, and playing field position. I think the Miami defense can do enough to keep this game low scoring if they're not put in bad position by turnovers....and that's all I need with a 2 TD spread.
2.5 units each
Washington Redskins +3 (+110)
This is a desperate game for Washington here to save their season. 2-6 basically = elimination. Not acceptable for a team with high expectations whose not going thru a rebuilding period....and with 2 weeks to prepare, I'm going with the home team in this one, and banking that Romo is gonna not be the next Brady. I think he'll come down a little after looking pretty good last week. A little sophmore jinx perhaps, lol
Detroit +6 (-105)
I believe Atlanta's last 2 wins were a bit deceiving. Pittsburgh committed a ton of turnovers 2 weeks ago, leading directly to about 28 Atlanta points....and Cincinnati cannot stop the run....and they still barely won those games.
Detroit gets a ton of players back this week....which should help too.
Also an 81%+ system play is involved here, saying to play on any team as a +6 point or higher home underdog off the bye week.
2 units each
Washington Redskins ML +155
Detroit Lions ML +220
½ unit each
This might be it for me for the 1pm games, unless I stumble across something else I may have missed and decide that I really like.
GLTA today :prtytme: