Johnny Racetracks
11-03-2006, 02:01 AM
Oh boy it's that time of year again, Breeders' Cup this Saturday at Churchill Downs! In case you didn't know, the B.C. is to horse players what March Madness is to NCAA b-ball fans.
If I don't forget to stop by here on Saturday morning I'll post some Pick 4 tickets and whatever else looks good to me. The Pick 4 means picking a winner of four races in a row. On Saturday Churchill will offer this wager twice, once starting on Race 3 for the first four Cup races, and then again on Race 7 for the final four Cup races.
Although the minimum amount is only $1 you'll need to invest much more than that to expect to win a Pick 4 on B.C. day but it can pay $5,000 or more even without crazy longshots winning because there are so many combinations with the large fields. Just think how big a number 12 x 12 x 12 x 12 is. And some races have 14 horses.
Favorites have performed slightly better in the Breeders' Cup than the daily average with a 37 % win rate instead of about 35 % normally seen. But if a favorite wins one race and returns $6 for a $2 bet the next winner might pay $60 and the next $28 and then $12 so there is no typical odds for a B.C. winner. If that scenario occured you would likely be looking at around $10,000 back based on betting $1 tickets and getting one ticket right.
The tough part is catching that $60 horse so it's best to use six or more horses in at least one leg if the race looks especially difficult. To counteract the extra expense most sharp Pick 4 bettors will use a single horse in another leg since adding a second horse will bite you hard by doubling the ticket's cost. Adding a sixth horse to a leg in which you like five others will only increase the cost of the ticket by 20 % so it's a lot cheaper to buy that horse than it is to buy another horse in a race in which you like just a single horse.
To calculate the cost of a Pick 4 ticket multiply the number used leg by leg. 4 x 2 x 3 x 4 = $96
Last year the Pick 4's based on $1 tickets paid:
$6,581.00 - (2-1 odds, 4-1 odds, 15-1 odds, 12-1 odds) total pool of $1.77 Million
$8,651.50 - (5-1 odds, 30-1 odds, 8-1 odds, 2-1 odds) total pool of $2.28 Million
And the track take-out on the Pick 4 is lower this year so those tickets would have paid $7,107 and $9,343 with the reduced juice Churchill charges.
If I don't forget to stop by here on Saturday morning I'll post some Pick 4 tickets and whatever else looks good to me. The Pick 4 means picking a winner of four races in a row. On Saturday Churchill will offer this wager twice, once starting on Race 3 for the first four Cup races, and then again on Race 7 for the final four Cup races.
Although the minimum amount is only $1 you'll need to invest much more than that to expect to win a Pick 4 on B.C. day but it can pay $5,000 or more even without crazy longshots winning because there are so many combinations with the large fields. Just think how big a number 12 x 12 x 12 x 12 is. And some races have 14 horses.
Favorites have performed slightly better in the Breeders' Cup than the daily average with a 37 % win rate instead of about 35 % normally seen. But if a favorite wins one race and returns $6 for a $2 bet the next winner might pay $60 and the next $28 and then $12 so there is no typical odds for a B.C. winner. If that scenario occured you would likely be looking at around $10,000 back based on betting $1 tickets and getting one ticket right.
The tough part is catching that $60 horse so it's best to use six or more horses in at least one leg if the race looks especially difficult. To counteract the extra expense most sharp Pick 4 bettors will use a single horse in another leg since adding a second horse will bite you hard by doubling the ticket's cost. Adding a sixth horse to a leg in which you like five others will only increase the cost of the ticket by 20 % so it's a lot cheaper to buy that horse than it is to buy another horse in a race in which you like just a single horse.
To calculate the cost of a Pick 4 ticket multiply the number used leg by leg. 4 x 2 x 3 x 4 = $96
Last year the Pick 4's based on $1 tickets paid:
$6,581.00 - (2-1 odds, 4-1 odds, 15-1 odds, 12-1 odds) total pool of $1.77 Million
$8,651.50 - (5-1 odds, 30-1 odds, 8-1 odds, 2-1 odds) total pool of $2.28 Million
And the track take-out on the Pick 4 is lower this year so those tickets would have paid $7,107 and $9,343 with the reduced juice Churchill charges.