My first post

[BetAgainstMe]

I have been reading this board for a while and finally got access to post today. I could have helped a lot of people out yeterday but my account wasn't activated yet. Anyway, a major stat that NO ONE, and I mean NO ONE had was that Minnesota was 1-5 ATS on their last 6 of comming off a win of 14pts. or more. Now they are 1-6 ATS. I couldn't believe that not one person mentioned that. Everyone talked about how they were a homedog on a Monday night but they weren't a true dog. 1-1.5pts? I saw more money on Minnesota than on NE. ie. The public may have been picking NE to win but as the line showed, the money wasn't there.

Anyway, hopefully I can help next week and we can all start winning. Business has been tough this year.

[yomonte]

I think we had enough people tell us we were going to lose. But one more never hurts.

[Stifler's Mom]

Trends are trash.

I'm glad for you that you could win last night, but playing blindly on trends will put you in the poorhouse in the end.

Just something to think about.

[CuseFan10]

1st ever post to the TOLIET.... :clap:

[BetAgainstMe]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Trends are trash.

I'm glad for you that you could win last night, but playing blindly on trends will put you in the poorhouse in the end.

Just something to think about.

you guys here are tough. i didnt mean to be a tuesday morning quarterback but i wasn't able to post on monday. like my handle says, bet against me. i lose a lot, just like the rest of the common bettors. i came here to see if we could help each other out, not to rub a lose in your face. sorry if i offended you guys, hopefully i can help in the future.

let me ask, if betting trends will put you in the poorhouse, what do you suggest won't? betting your gut?

[Silver & Black]

Originally posted by BetAgainstMe

let me ask, if betting trends will put you in the poorhouse, what do you suggest won't? betting your gut?
How About..
1) common opponents
2) offensive line
3) TOP
4) Coaching
5) Emotions
6) Turnover +/-
7) etc etc etc
this doesn't even include rushing and passing game on both sides of the ball - to each his own

some trends are worth looking at but if you make your plays strickly on trends, you'll be in trouble.
BTW
:welcome:

[Stifler's Mom]

Sorry for jumping on u like that man.

Your post seemed like one of those after the fact "I told ya so" ones.

In my opinion, there are alot better ways to come up with plays than using strictly trends though.

[BetAgainstMe]

Originally posted by Silver & Black
How About..
1) common opponents
2) offensive line
3) TOP
4) Coaching
5) Emotions
6) Turnover +/-
7) etc etc etc
this doesn't even include rushing and passing game on both sides of the ball - to each his own

some trends are worth looking at but if you make your plays strickly on trends, you'll be in trouble.
BTW
:welcome:

each of those factors you mentioned share the same pros and cons as trends. nothing is 100% and i never said that all i use is trends. if you guys want to continue putting words in my mouth and treating me like a second class character, then be my guest. as you can see by people's picks, no one really seems to be better at this than the next guy. so, hate all you want, but in the end we are all in the same boat and i think a place like this is great if we can help each other out. thanks for the welcome.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally posted by BetAgainstMe
each of those factors you mentioned share the same pros and cons as trends. nothing is 100% and i never said that all i use is trends. if you guys want to continue putting words in my mouth and treating me like a second class character, then be my guest. as you can see by people's picks, no one really seems to be better at this than the next guy. so, hate all you want, but in the end we are all in the same boat and i think a place like this is great if we can help each other out. thanks for the welcome.

What is your problem?

First of all, choosing a name like Betagainstme, you are basically asking to be treated like a second class character as you put it.

Secondly, neither Stif's post nor Silver's post were derogatory. As a matter of fact they were helpful. You asked a question and Silver answered it.

I can guarantee you that I can come up with one trend to fit any play any day of the week. Saying Minnesota was 1-5 ATS after a 14 pt win is a bad trend to use? WHY? How often has Minnesota won by 14 or more points? How many years do you have to go back? They have one win this year by 14. Last year they had 2. The previous year they had 3. Now you are in the 2003 season before you find the sixth one. Completely different team, coach, etc....

Secondly any trend with less than 30 data points is a joke. If you could find a trend where ALL NFL teams are considered...I would use it. Situational trends, not team trends, are much more powerful.

Stick around and give your input but lay off the whining....

[BetAgainstMe]

I've been betting NFL for so long now, that stat was huge to me. If you watch the NFL you know that teams play great one week and flop the next. It doesn't matter how many data points or how far it went back. It was an excellent stat, IMO and a major factor in my decision. Its a testament to the way football works, not just a one game situation.

[yomonte]

Originally posted by BetAgainstMe
Its a testament

New or used, I mean old or new. Lets try to keep religion out of this