View Full Version : Pow's Vegas F*cks: X
uh oh.....
4 games before saturday...
8 chances for the Vegas Ass Fuck (if i get some figures on the totals)....
tonight's game:
uab +4.5 19%
smu -4.5 81%
69% of the betting public is on the OVER of 48 currently...
therefore, i will be playing UAB +4.5 and the UNDER of 48
GL to everyone 2nite
SDSurfn
10-31-2006, 10:46 AM
Your theory intrigues me. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
the funny thing is is that i've never put one of my VAF records in my sig line...
if i did, i'd be like 90-49 or something for the year...
i should start charging 250 a season...LOL
larry4498
10-31-2006, 11:11 AM
Make sure you look at different sites when using public percentage.
2 different sites I saw.
1. SMU 84% over 75%
2. SMU 64% over 53%
SMU is still the favorite in both...
i forsee them being the favorite on both before game time...
following sportsbook-dot-com, the worst week the VAF's went was like 5-3 or something....
im not worried about it... this is all for shits and giggles anyway, right?
CuseFan10
10-31-2006, 11:47 AM
GL with the "system" POW!
Fade on :yeah:
Originally posted by CuseFan10
GL with the "system" POW!
Fade on :yeah:
thanks bro...
i wish there was a site where i can actually retroactively cap games and get some answers regarding them, you know?
oh well... i've made enough on these odd games anyway, here's to hoping that i make more!
GL
eddiep
10-31-2006, 11:59 AM
pow good luck this week:thumbs: i must admit i reloaded on sunday,a day late since sat would have been a productive day for me......... i will never go against the vaf rule again!!! my ass is still bleeding some from that rutgers game sunday night :bang: i have no excuse so from no on its either vaf system or iam laying off....................GL
:thumbs:
Originally posted by eddiep
pow good luck this week:thumbs: i must admit i reloaded on sunday,a day late since sat would have been a productive day for me......... i will never go against the vaf rule again!!! my ass is still bleeding some from that rutgers game sunday night :bang: i have no excuse so from no on its either vaf system or iam laying off....................GL
:thumbs:
bet at your discretion man... the VAF is bound to be a let down, and i'd hate for it to be this week for you...
i find that betting each of the values for totals as well as sides may help spread the money around so if you take a hit on one, you can make it up with the others...
oh well.. time will tell...
the public isnt always wrong...
GL
HitHappenS83
10-31-2006, 12:03 PM
gl with that trend you got going pow. i tried to follow for a little but i couldnt resist capping the games myself. might be one your side wed. and thurs. the way things are looking.
eddiep
10-31-2006, 12:15 PM
Pow no problem,your right the public is not always wrong ...but these weekday games the public percentage has not been good.................going small anyways.........cant argue with the vaf percentage so far..........gl:thumbs:
GoBigOrGoHome
10-31-2006, 12:41 PM
i like the VAF system but i dont know about taking UAB, this QB for SMU sounds pretty damn good to me.
i wouldnt know... i havent capped the game..
HAHAHAHAHAHA
joepa66
10-31-2006, 01:17 PM
GL Pow....yer blazin a new trail bro.....keep it going:thumbs:
thanks joe...
lets see how vegas decides to get the public after only going 6-8 on the sides this last weekend for the NFL
ps...
if we hit again with the VAF this week, keep it on the DL...
if everyone bets with us, the public wont be the public anymore....
BWAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA
EdwardHaney
10-31-2006, 02:18 PM
I don't disagree with you on too many games Pow but I think the OVER has a great chance. When this game "opens up" it is reeeaaalllly going to open up. Pinnacle has it at 49.5 right now if it was a little bit lower I'd have to jump on the OVER. Hard for me to say though..I hate totals.
Originally posted by EdwardHaney
I don't disagree with you on too many games Pow but I think the OVER has a great chance. When this game "opens up" it is reeeaaalllly going to open up. Pinnacle has it at 49.5 right now if it was a little bit lower I'd have to jump on the OVER. Hard for me to say though..I hate totals.
dood... you're not disagreeing with me, you're just disagreeing with the VAF...
i just fade the public on every weeknight/sunday night game...
GL
birdsfan5
10-31-2006, 03:10 PM
GL POW
Stifler's Mom
10-31-2006, 03:51 PM
Will be interesting to see where to public goes from now until game time....but the most telling plays of the true public opinion are always in the last few hours before gametime on these weeknight games, when Joe Q Couch Potato gets home from work and jumps on a side.
The line move from UAB +2.5 to UAB +5 has pursuaded more plays to come in on UAB so far....as they're up to 35% on UAB as of 3:45 pm eastern.
I am always hesitant when the public starts jumping ship because of a line movement, and if the number on UAB keeps climbing till game time, I am going to side with the "original" public opinion and lay the points with SMU.
The books didn't move that line 2.5 points (3 at some books, and thru "key numbers" of 3 and 4) because they wanted to get middled, lol. Normally in a situation like that, either UAB wins outright (or at least covers the +2.5 opener...which seems unlikely if they don't win outright), or they get smooshed and don't cover anything.
Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Will be interesting to see where to public goes from now until game time....but the most telling plays of the true public opinion are always in the last few hours before gametime on these weeknight games, when Joe Q Couch Potato gets home from work and jumps on a side.
The line move from UAB +2.5 to UAB +5 has pursuaded more plays to come in on UAB so far....as they're up to 35% on UAB as of 3:45 pm eastern.
I am always hesitant when the public starts jumping ship because of a line movement, and if the number on UAB keeps climbing till game time, I am going to side with the "original" public opinion and lay the points with SMU.
The books didn't move that line 2.5 points (3 at some books, and thru "key numbers" of 3 and 4) because they wanted to get middled, lol. Normally in a situation like that, either UAB wins outright (or at least covers the +2.5 opener...which seems unlikely if they don't win outright), or they get smooshed and don't cover anything.
like last night's crazy line move for minny? minny getting LESS points despite over 80% of the pubes being on NE
Stifler's Mom
10-31-2006, 04:40 PM
Unfortunately I must say that the pub % for NE came down as game time approached, and the line creeped back up from nearly a pick towards the original line of +3 too.
Think about it....
When do most "sharp" players make their plays? Early. When they spot a line they like and nail it, or just before game time, when they think they've got the max line they are going to get if they're going opposite the pub.
When do most "pub" players make their plays? In the hours heading up to game time.
Just watch when the majority of the posts here start appearing if you don't see what I mean.
Plus, the pub isn't always wrong, like was said before. Minny was still the anti-pub play last night even though more started jumping on them than earlier in the week, but the pub was right for a change. That's all.
There's so much more to watching lines/pub % than just saying "80% of the pub is on XXX, so i'm playing YYY"....unless that 80% holds constant thru the whole week and the line doesn't move, or moves only say a half point. When there are big line moves involved, and/or a noticible shift in pub %, that has to be considered as well.
In any case, the public coming in a bit more on UAB today was just something I noticed. If the oddsmakers moved the line from 2.5 to 5, obviously they did it to get more action on UAB.
stiff, i totally see what youre saying and im DEFINITELY not claiming to be a sharp...
i do think its a pretty outstanding figure to go to a website, pick the opposite of whatever the public is and hit a pretty good amount of the time...
anyway, its just a funny little side bet thing, its certainly not the gospel...
good luck!
locojoel
10-31-2006, 06:19 PM
I'm with you POW - for more reasons than LVF!
The media has been all over Watson Brown; they want him
to step down as coach and remain as AD. He needs this one!
The team knows this - this bud's for you!
UAB +5
Under 49 1/2
AuTiger20
10-31-2006, 08:33 PM
GL POW... Keep 'em coming
halfway through the game i wanted UAB to just go home and let smu run the score up...
fucking ridiculous how many times they had an opportunity to score...
4 goal line penalties in a row?! are you kidding me?
LOL
oh well, i took a largo wager on the under and a little wager on UAB so i got that one...
1-1 last night
which means another opportunity to go 2-0 2nite... hee hee
boise st -23.5 is currently at 71% with the public for 2nite...
anyone have the percentage for the total? (sb.com doesnt have it)
Styles
11-01-2006, 11:32 AM
hey man, don't know if this might help ya or not
Originally posted by Styles
poo poo
thanks bro!
it totally helps...
from that sample of data, (approx 1000 people),
roughly 26% are under 61 and 74% are on the over of 61
the line for the TOTAL is currently 59 and according to the same sampling of data,
that sampling of public is 74% on the over and 26% on the under...
for tonight's game, i will be taking the UNDER of 59 and FRES ST +23.5
i'm just going to start posting my rego picks for saturday's in here to keep the thread count down...
anyway, i have:
maryland +17
tulsa -4
purdue +2
GoBigOrGoHome
11-02-2006, 09:39 AM
man did i get fucked last night
Originally posted by GoBigOrGoHome
man did i get fucked last night
its the same reason that i only bet a buck on each side/total bet unless i have crazy confidence in it...
1-3 for the VAF's so far this week... that's unheard of...
TELL ME that vegas didnt have a part in last night's numbers...
anywho, on to tonight...
louie -1
no figures on the total yet
i see louisville coming out VERY physical tonight... laying bodies on the faster guys and playing contain a hell of a lot better than any other other teams WV has faced so far...
maryland got to a super slow start with adjustments against wv, going down 28-0 in the first quarter... everything that maryland could have done wrong, they did wrong... they gave up a kick return for a TD in the last minute and a half of play...after all the adjustments were made they ended up losing 45-24
maryland did it with the pass... wv showed a lot of holes in their 3-3-5 defense while trying to cover the pass... i dont see brohm to be as forgiving as hollenbach...
i picture louisville as a faster, much more prepared, much more athletic version of maryland with a much more balanced overall offense and defense...
i expect this to be a run-centric game and a more involved, physically dominated defensive type of game...
im taking louie at -1 with the UNDER of 56.5
eddiep
11-02-2006, 12:42 PM
pow i see public 72 percent on the under......u going against the vaf system tonight???as far as the side when i first looked at the game i liked wv more than likely that will be wrong.....public got 3 straight sides...........louie gotta be the play here,,but iam confused on the total? small play on louie here for me...........gl tonight!!!!!!!!!
Originally posted by eddiep
pow i see public 72 percent on the under......u going against the vaf system tonight???as far as the side when i first looked at the game i liked wv more than likely that will be wrong.....public got 3 straight sides...........louie gotta be the play here,,but iam confused on the total? small play on louie here for me...........gl tonight!!!!!!!!!
sb.com has it at 60% on the under 2nite...
if by game time everyone's on the under, i'll rethink my strategy...
larry4498
11-02-2006, 01:42 PM
2 sites I saw have 57 and 51% on the over
Originally posted by larry4498
2 sites I saw have 57 and 51% on the over
me too... the line has been moving to the over on every site i've been checking...
its currently 53% on the OVER at sb.com
FLASHPOINT
11-02-2006, 01:47 PM
Originally posted by eddiep
pow i see public 72 percent on the under......u going against the vaf system tonight???as far as the side when i first looked at the game i liked wv more than likely that will be wrong.....public got 3 straight sides...........louie gotta be the play here,,but iam confused on the total? small play on louie here for me...........gl tonight!!!!!!!!!
Completely agree. The side is, IMO, in Louisville's favors only because the public has hit the side three straight weekday/night games. Ive been documenting the VAF rule, and law of averages puts me taking Louisville -1.
But then again, POW, did completely jinx his rule. First, by posting his record in his sig, then by saying "its bound to fail sometime" and then by saying, "dont let too many people do it cuz it works." Man you jinxed that system hard!
*The total is much harder to figure out. The teams average a combined 79 points a game and the O/U is 56 1/2. The public is hitting the under hard, which is what I wanted to do. But Ill either stay away or take the over.
Taking Louisville -1.
eddiep
11-02-2006, 01:49 PM
wow it went down to 53 percent within an hour or so..........damn it gotta put my bet in now..........second shift blows...........gl tonight guys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:thumbs:
eddiep
11-02-2006, 01:56 PM
vaf rule= louie plus 1:yeah:
FLASHPOINT
11-02-2006, 05:21 PM
Originally posted by Pow
EDITED....LOL
LOL :thumbs:
the curse has been removed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
VAF POWER
eddiep
11-02-2006, 11:45 PM
pow here s to you and the vaf system:yeah: finally a winner!!! layed off the total,,but the vaf numbers i saw early on would have pointed to taking the over............vaf=2 and 0:prtytme:
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