JoePa's CFB Week #10

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 21 - 20 - 4
UNITS: +.75
Last Week: 2 - 6
:surrend:

I'VE POSTED A WVU-LOUEYVILLE PREVIEW
LOWER ON THE PAGE!

BRIGHAM YOUNG -14.5 @ Colorado State WINNA
TULANE +6.5 @ Marshall LOOZA
OKLAHOMA -2.5 @ Texas A&M LOOZA
HAWAII -26.5 @ Utah State WINNA
NEVADA -9.5 @ Idaho WINNA
OVER 58.5 Boise St. vs. Fresno State WINNA
COUPE DE-LOUEYVILLE +1.5 vs. West Virginia WINNA

Damn.....liking the roadies for some reason, but one homie won why can't another?! Go UL!!!

OVEN MITT YTD: 8 - 4
Last Week: 0 - 2
:flush:

"DEFINITELY"
NEBRASKA -5.5 vs. Mizzou WINNA
MINNESOTA -6.5 vs. Indiana WINNA

[Spurs N Feathers]

hawaii all the way man. that should be an over mitter

[Spurs N Feathers]

any thoughts on georgia tech -6 @ ncstate? not sure why the line is less than a score...

[Pow]

joe, i found that streamlining down to 2-3 picks a week really helps with the capping...

you get a lot less static from other people and rarely do other people sway you to tail...

anywho, good luck man... you'll get back on track!

[joepa66]

Spurs....NCState is a mystery this year, ya never know when they are showing up! I had them circled but seems to iffy for me!

Pow....I know, I make some headway then add and keep adding, but those 5 are all for me this week and I may even dump 1-2 of them. Of course, the Mitt still has to make his picks, but he may pare it down it one pick!
:yeah:

[williwonka05]

:thumbs:

[bigbag12]

dam all the hate on the AGS joe wtf lol!! its on about the ball control!!

GL with your picks bro!!

[Gamehendge]

i agree about ncstate this year joepa

[shorts]

BOL to ya Bro...Get em back this week! Last week wouldn't have been to bad for me but I went down in flames with the Tigers...what the hell made me bet on baseball?? Oh that's right I'm a degenerate!! LMAO!! BOL to ya!

[ned rierson]

I am a huge Nebraska fan, but Cosgrove and the Huskers Defense have been all over the map this year. They have especially struggled in defending spread offenses with qb's that can move. I hope that they get things figured out quickly in Lincoln or the bashing of the husker defense could get ugly. I do think Nebraska will be able to pound the ball against Mizzou. However, we were doing so last week and went away from it. I think that this is one of those games that Nebraska will either lose outright or win big. I think the spread does have some value due to last week's loss at OSU, but I hate to place my hard earned money on a Kevin Cosgrove coached defense. I hope he proves me wrong and wins you some money.

Good luck!

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[Q-Unit]

lets get on a streak bro GL!

college hoops is around the corner, you know what that means! oral roberts for sweet 16! LOL

[dead garcia]

the Bows are a ballsy prop this week my friend and you know how I love 'em....I'm thinking they might be a little sluggish in this one....they only score 45....lol...their average...hope they cash for you bro...

[joepa66]

Birds, Wonk...thanks guys, I need a little more than help after last week! Possible a shrink or to hit the lottery, not much chance of either of those two happening....LMAO

BigBag - Defense, defense.....yea that oughta be a TOP kind of game since both teams have hogged the ball all season long. Sooners 31.37 mins and 65 plays per game and Aggies 34 mins and 69 plays....

Gamehendge - NCState, hell I wish they would just be done with Amato already. Early in the season I made money by going against them, then they beat BC and blow it at Maryland.....

Shorts - Beisbol....it had not been a berry berry good to you senor....I am looking at taking the Golden Dragons -27.5 vs. Lincoln, a pitiful team that averages 6.1ppg, has been shutout 3 times, give up 47ppg, only average 129.5 yards in total offense and give up 450.8 yards per game.....Tiffin is 9-0 and ready to row, er, roll!

Ned....just see that the Huskers big shot at winning the Big 12 North and it goes directly thru their next two games with Mizzou at home and on the road @ A&M before their finale at home vs. the Buffs. Missou on the other hand has their toughest test this week with the Huskers, cause after that they are @ Cyclone U and host Kansas. So it's probably the Black Shirts toughest two weeks of the season and they can't piss that away...can they?!

[joepa66]

Q-Leo......I ain't streakin with no oral giving guys named Robert....LMFAO
But I definitely need to pick 'ems to get me going....it's been a tough year but I'm still on the positive side. CBB has been real good to me, but I likes the foots too much:yeah:

Dead.....I gots to do something bro and I've already lei'd my cash on the Bows.....I know the Vandals have been hanging tough of late, but dem Bows is a scoring machine....GL brother and nice to see ya!:thumbs:

[Rah-stah Man]

GL this week, joe!
:gulp:

[AuTiger20]

GL JoePa...

I;m definitely with ya on Nevada and BYU. I do Like Hawaii... but I'm not quite sure how the Islanders do on the mainland this week.. that being said, I'll prob take it

This is the week we turn it back around!!

[NCSUWolfpack2002]

GL joe! Bounce back week:thumbs:

[The Gipper]

This is your bounce back week, Joe Pa.
Like Nevada a lot. They have been flying under the radar all year and the Wolfpack is a very solid club on both sides of the ball.:yeah:
What, no MAC inside info this week??:beer2:

[joepa66]

WVU @ Louisville -1

Mountaineer head coach Rich Rodriguez summed up tonight’s meeting when he said, “The more you win the more is at stake, being undefeated just raises the stakes even higher.” WVU has NEVER BEATEN a Top 5 – ranked team on THE ROAD and Loueyville has NEVER BEATEN a Top 5 team under Bobby Petrino, and the Cards are 1-4 @ Papa John Stadium against nationally ranked teams, with the school’s lone win over a Top 5 team in school history coming against #4 Florida State in 2002. The Cards however, have been virtually unbeatable AT HOME winning 15 games in a row and posting a 19-1 record there since 2003. WVU has the 6th best ROAD record in the national since 2003 at 15-6 for a 71.4 winning percentage.
The winner will keep pace with undefeated Rutgers atop the Big East standings, while the loser will be tied for second with Pitt! Both WVU and Loueyville have meetings upcoming @ Pitt, while WVU hosts the Scarlet Knights and Loueyville travels to Jersey.
UL ranks 2nd in the nation in total offense (496.14ypg), 5th in scoring offense (38.71ppg), 7th in rushing offense (217ypg) and 10th in passing offense (280.14ypg), while the ‘Eers are 1st in the nation in rushing offense (319ypg), 2nd in scoring offense (40.86), and 4th in total offense (459.29). Both defenses are also ranked in the Top 20 in total defense with very similar stats. The stats that stand out in the comparisons are the Cards passing offense vs. WVU’s pass D giving up 182ypg, and the ‘Eers 140ypg pass attack vs. UL’s 209.7ypg pass D. There is also the fact that since the loss of RB Bush and QB Brian Brohm’s injured thumb and with the exception of the MTSU game, their offensive point production has decreased well below their season average down to 25ppg against Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Kansas St. On defense however, the Cards do have an amazing 28 sacks on defense this season for -177 yards (4 per game for -24yards), while WVU has one half of that total with 14 sacks on the year. True to form in last year’s 46-44OT thriller in Morgantown, the Cards passed for 277 yards, gave up just 109 thru the air to WVU’s heavy run attack, and recorded 3 sacks, while the Mounties rushed for 281 yards and had 0 sacks. Central to this year’s match-up may will once again be the play of ‘Eers QB Pat White. Last year, the signal caller had 11 carries for 69 yards, or 6.3ypc, and did an adequate job passing on 5-11 for 49 yards. The Cards had trouble handling White’s scrambles in Morgantown, and as a warm-up this year he’s had a Big East QB record of 247 rushing yards vs. Syracuse and 9 runs of 30 yards or longer for 2006. No one expects anybody to shutdown RB Steve Slaton who carried 31x for 188 yards and 5 TD in last year’s game…..Slaton has 1,059 yards and 9 TDs already this season – 151ypg average. Much of Slaton’s success is owed to FB Owen Schmitt. Rodriguez has 4 bent face masks of Schmitt’s in his office – one from last season’s Loueyville game – which he uses to remind his team of how physical they must play.
Three times this season WVU has been hurt by the pass, but they have won all three of those games. Maryland burned them for 214 yards but the ‘Eers escaped a 45-24 winner the beneficiary of 4 Terp TOs, ECU hit them for 276 yards passing in a 27-10 WVU win, and Missy St. had 250 yards passing but 3 TOs and WVU won 42-14. These teams aren't even in the same league as UL’s Brian Brohm who has a 66.4% completion rate and 1269 yards this season but just 4 TDs, and Brohm is just 29 yards shy of 5000 career passing yards as a junior, and is ranked 2nd in the nation in Career Interception Percentage with just 10 picks in 538 attempts or just 1.86% of the time. By the way he second only to Ohio State’s Troy Smith who has just 9 INTs in 552 attempts.
The Cards big target is 6’6” 228lb. Mario Urrutia who averages 21.5ypc with 64 career receptions for 1317 yards, and will go against WVU’s starting corners who stand 6-1 and 5-9. Teammate Harry Douglas has 27 catches this year and a 19.3ypc average, while RBs Kolby Smith and George Stripling have combined for 337 yards in catches for a 16ypc average. The RB tandem have also run for 451 and 355 yards respectively since Bush’s injury and average 5.6 and 5.8ypc. On defense DT Amobi Okoye is recognized as an NFL top prospect with 10 tackles for loss this year. Place kicker Art Carmody has hit 37-43 FG attempts for 86%, is 2nd in the nation in FG Accuracy this year at 91.2% making 14-16 and a perfect 34-34 in PATs. Carmody also has a 51 yard FG to his credit. Despite having 17 scoring drives of 2 minutes or less, the Cards have eaten up one-half of the game clock this year. Last year vs. WVU Loueyville had the ball for 20 of the first 30 opening minutes – with the new clock rules instituted this year, it’s doubtful that there can be a 17pt. 4th quarter comeback like last year.
With all these gaudy numbers, there are some real intangibles to this year’s game. Loueyville is -3 in TO margin this year, have turned the ball over 11x in their last 4 games, are tied for 88th in the country in TO margin having lost 9 of 12 fumbles. They also rank 79th in net punting and 119th in kickoff returns. They have to control TOP and protect the ball. There was only one TO in last year’s game, an INT thrown by Brohm. WVU averages 7 drive killing penalties for 80.29ypg on offense and 60 yards in defensive penalties on defense. They need to clean up their act and capitalize on their 12th ranked kick off returns and 5th ranked net punt rating to keep Loueyville’s 92% red zone efficiency rated offense (68% are TDs) in long down and distance situations or off the field.

[shorts]

Thanks for the info Joepa.........now.........who the hell do I take!!!! LMAO!! This is a tough one. GL my friend!

[joepa66]

That's my dilemna too Shorts....maybe I'll just have fun watching and throwing down a cold one! It's supposed to be in the 30s tonight and that'll stiffen Brohm's thumb up for sure. I find it really close to call but am ever so slightly leaning toward the Cards, but can't seem to pull the trigger!

GL:cool:

[JohnZags]

Cards tonight JoePa, in a close one !

[joepa66]

Hope yer right Zags.....if I play that'll be the side I take! GL:thumbs:

[joepa66]

ESPN Sports Radio this morning had a vegas capper on saying that it used to be that visiting dogs during weekday night games were the ones to bet on, but this year the HOME FAVS as hitting at better than an 80% clip! Likin' Loueyville even more that the line at BoDog has swayed to WVU -1....
:yeah:

[HitHappenS83]

come on joepa pull the trigger :fire:
remember louisville was up 24-7 with 8 minutes left in the game last year and blew the lead at west virginia. that wont happen again.

[joepa66]

Bet I can tell where the books want the money to even things out since the line has flopped to WVU -1.5 at the dog.....:yeah:

[joepa66]

I had to do it.....

COUPE DE-LOUEY-VILLE +1.5 vs. West Virginia

GL everyone, it's gonna be fun:bbang: :hair:

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

GL JoePA as in the famous words of Wilmer "the Flamer" Valdarama in MTV's YO MOMMA: "Lets Buggy"

[GoBigOrGoHome]

gl joey

[joepa66]

Thanks GoBig and 50/50...now if'n I could just keep the momentum going thru the weekend......:yeah:

What a game lastnight.....3 fumbles on 3 consecutive plays, etc. Anybody know the status of Slaton's wrist?

[shorts]

I got faith in ya there Joepa! Keep er rollin! Or roll 'er over and keep 'er rockin!! LMAO!! Nice hit Bro!!

Right now I'm looking at Flyin' high tonight! Haven't pulled the trigger yet though!

[Spurs N Feathers]

mitt is looking real good first half joe... glad i tailed ya... roll huskers

[Rah-stah Man]

Get 'em joe!
:gulp:

[joepa66]

Thanks guys.....we're on a roll so far.....Loved the Huskers and Gophers too, but forgot to post this one yesterday but had a very busy day with HS football playoffs but the Mitt said:

"DEFINITELY"
MINNESOTA -6 vs. Indiana
So I laid out a dollar on them this morning......he also like Kent State -14 but I didn't put any of my hard earned cash on that one, what's the motivation?!

[Spurs N Feathers]

big week this week joepa... congrats, and thanks for the nebraska winner

[joepa66]

Thanks Spurs & glad ya had fun like I did:yeah:


UPDATED YTD: 27 - 22 - 4
UNITS: +5.25
Last Week: 6 - 2


OVEN MITT YTD: 10 - 4
Last Week: 2 - 0

Rock On:prtytme: :thumbs:

[SDSurfn]

Great job this week Joepa. Had I known the Mitt was on Minny, I never would have been on the Hoosiers.


How's yer knee feeling this morning? That was a hell of a hit for an old man!

[hurricanroy]

Great job Pa!! Love your thread. Lots of good Solid info. Keep up the great work.:thumbs: