p1zza_man
10-27-2006, 09:45 PM
was searchin on another forum and cm across this from a guy named "howudoin"
looks very solid and will be following it this system ... hopefully this helps you all also
NBA ROAD SYSTEM INFO FOR 2006-07 (HALVES)
note: The following is ONLY about halves. Ry will provide you info concerning full games.
This thread includes a great deal of information including updates and research info. This is the first thread of the new season and it should answer any question that you may have about the nba road system (HALVES). I would like to start by updating season records for past years for halves.
HALVES .... SEASON RECORDS
2003-04 ... 102 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2004-05 ... 99 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2005-06 ... 108 SERIES WINS AND 1 LOSS
(note: I also had 17 wins and 0 losses last season with an experiment (road system with handicapping) which I terminated after a few weeks ... so my totals for the year (2005-06): 125 series wins and 1 loss.)
note: My loss last year based on the rules of this system was the portland series In Dec. This was an error on my part because the series began a couple days before christmas and concluded after a return home from the christmas break.
BACKGROUND INFO:
I started with full games and quickly noticed series losses with full games would have been wins with halves. So I researched this idea with halves ... that it is more difficult for a road team to cover every half as compared to full games. Many times a home team will cover for a half but will fail to cover for the game. My research proved this to be true. Only one series loss in the last 3 years (see above)!!!
FIRST ... NBA ROAD SYSTEM (HALVES / ATS)
THE PLAN:The idea of the nba road system (halves) is to play against a road team that is out of its comfort zone and with the fatigue factor to consider, so we play up to the last 6 halves with the last half being optional of a 3 or more games road trip. Stop the series when a cover is made by the home team. Find your best line for the 1st half and if the first half loses bet at half-time for the 2nd half. Our road teams that we do not play can vary from year to year (see below for detais). Betting progression: To win one unit... double bet plus juice until it covers. See below for more details.
NO PLAY TEAMS: I researched the road teams over the past two seasons that have been consistent with pushing plays deep into series. This list can change from year to year but as mentioned last season this is optional if you choose to play every road team. My reason that I use the no play team list ... if I can save a series or two it would be worth it.
RULES FOR THE ROAD SYSTEM WITH HALVES (ATS)
1. Bet against the road team (ats) on a road trip of three or more games.
2. Play up to the LAST 3 games of a road series until a cover is made. Of course on a 3 game road trip it would all 3 games. (see below for more details)*
3. Find your best line for the first half and if it does not cover place your bet at half-time for the second half for the second play of the series. If there is still no cover after two plays, your third play would be the first half of the second game of the series and etc.
4.Betting progression: the goal is to win one unit. (see below for more details)
5. No play road teams for this season includes: NJ,HOU,BOS,PHO,DAL,LAL,SA,MN,LAC,SAC
6. Any series that starts before the christmas break must conclude by dec. 22 or it is no play.
7. Any series that starts before the all-star break must also conclude before the all-star break or it is no play.
8. Optional: If a series goes to the last game of the series and the home team's winning record with halves is below 50% over the last 6 and 10 halves BEFORE the series starts, we may choose to consider it as a no play.
* 6 game series ... start with the 4th game of the series
* 5 game series ... start with the 3rd game of the series
* 4 game series ... start with the 2nd game of the series
* 3 game series ... start with the 1st game of the series
NO RESTARTS: I am asking for only 1 cover by the home team. I just don't want to push my luck and get too greedy with this.
BETTING PROGRESSION TO WIN ONE UNIT (based on -110)
First play .......... risk 1.1 to win 1.0
Second play .... risk 2.3 to win 2.1
Third play ......... risk 4.85 to win 4.41
Fourth play ...... risk 10.2 to win 9.26
Fifth play .......... risk 21.4 to win 19.46
UNIT SIZE: I recommend to start small and increase your unit size as your bankroll increases. After you win a few units, you will be playing with the house's money and this mind-set will help you when you have to go deep into a series. I recommend starting with at least 100 units. Adjust your unit size based on this and your bankroll that you willing to commit. I also realize this type of betting is not for everyone. I have had great success with this ... NO LOSING SEASONS ... but this is NO GUARANTEE for future results!
EXAMPLE SERIES: ATL @ LAC, GS, SEA
1st play: atl @ lac (1st half) risk 1.1 to win 1.0 ........ results - loss
2nd play: atl @ lac (2nd half) risk 2.3 to win 1.0 ...... results - loss
3rd play: atl @ gs (1st half) risk 4.85 to win 4.41 .... results - win
The series ends with a cover on the 3rd play for 1 unit won.
note: The past 3 years 70 to 80 percent of the plays were covered by the second play of the series.
COMMENTS: The main negative of this system is that you have to be available to make half-time plays. Before I end my comments on the halves system, I would like to mention that more than one book would be recommended for the best line and at times I have paid extra juice to get a better line. Remember this system requires no handicapping. I will post the November schedule later. Also later in this thread, I will show you my research with the over and under with the halves system.
---------------------------
This next segment concerns my research for the over and under (totals) with the half system. This research includes all road teams and the same rules for halves/ats apply.
HALVES / UNDER
2004-05 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 116 (71 OF THIS NUMBER WAS WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ....... 11
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ....... 1
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ....... 2
LOSSES ..................................... 3
2005-06 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ...... 119 (58 OF THIS NUMBER WAS WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ...... 7
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ...... 6
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ..... 2
LOSSES .................................. 3
note: Both seasons if you stopped at 5 plays, you would have suffered 5 losses for each year!
HALVES/OVER
2004-05 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 119 (60 OF THIS NUMBER WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON BY THE 4TH PLAY ..... 8
WON BY THE 5TH PLAY ..... 4
WON BY THE 6TH PLAY ..... 1
LOSS ........................................ 1
2005-06 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 126 (80 OF THIS NUMBER WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ....... 3
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ...... 6
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ...... 1
LOSS ......................................... 1
Although the under is the best play currently for full games, the over would be the best play for halves based on the last 2 years of research. Again, this includes all road teams but I would recommend a no play team list of teams that pushed it deep in a series on consistent basis over the last 2 years. Looking at the above numbers, you would have plus units if you stopped it after 3 plays with the over but negative units with the under.
COMMENTS: Halves / ats is the best play of the two but if you decide to play totals, I would recommend the OVER instead of the UNDER. Use the same rules as with halves / ats and the no play team list below.
NO PLAY TEAMS: MIL,MN,ORL,LAL,GS,TOR,POR,LAC
-----------------------------
This next segment includes research on the halves road system / ats in reverse.
The plan: The road series favors the home team although the home team does not cover every play. So I am looking for covers by the road team. My research indicated good news last season but not as good for the previous season. The below numbers include all road teams.
First, the good news: 2005-06 SEASON
Total series ................... 138
won by the 3rd play ... 131
won on the 4th play ... 3
won on the 5th play ... 4
NO LOSSES!
Previous season: 2004-05
Total series .................. 133
won by the 3rd play .... 112
won on the 4th play .... 11
won on the 5th play ....... 5
won on the 6th play ....... 3
Losses .............................. 2
note: If you stopped after 5 plays, you would have suffered 5 losses!!
COMMENTS: Last season numbers were great but not quite the numbers that I wanted for the previous season. If I would base my decision on last season numbers only, I would consider it for this season. This idea is worth watching!
--------------------------
OPTIONAL: HALF-UNITS: Comments: A word about your unit size. If you cut your unit size to half-units. This will give you an extra play of 6 plays compared to 5 with full units and your total risk would be about the same and this extra play could save many units in the long run but units won would be half compared to full units.See the below comparison.
Example: Based on -110 to win one unit
Full unit betting progression: 1.1 .. 2.3 .. 4.85 .. 10.2 .. 21.4 = 39.85 units (5 plays)
Half unit betting progression: .55 .. 1.15 .. 2.43 .. 5.1 .. 10.7 .. 22.45 = 42.38 units (6 plays)
A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 2.53 UNITS BUT WITH AN EXTRA PLAY!
REVIEW:
1. NBA road series (halves / ats) ..... Great record over the last 3 years! (my favorite play)
2. NBA road series ( full games / ats) ... NO losing seasons thru 8 years!
3. NBA road series (full games / under) ... NO losing seasons thru 8 years!
4. NBA road series (halves / over) ... 1st year for this play!
5. NBA road series reverse (halves / ats) ... worth watching!
CRITICS OF THE ROAD SYSTEM: I agree with most critics about chase systems but there is an exception to every rule. The NBA ROAD SYSTEM is the exception to that rule in my opinion based on the record of previous years. Although the NBA ROAD SYSTEM has never had a losing season ... I also understand that this is NO GUARANTEE for future results.
TWO STAR PLAYS: I also realize that many are not interested of going deep in a series but are willing to go 2 plays. THE PLAN: (Halves / ats)The fatique factor is at its greatest point with the last game of the road series combined against a home team that has covered at least one half for each game 80% of the time over the last 5 and 10 games. I plan to let you know when a star play occurs. I have NO research data on this but I can tell you this ... that last year 77% of the time (107 out of 138) that the home team covered at least one half with the last game of the road series. This stat includes all ALL road teams based on other rules as indicated with halves/ats. By eliminating the weak home team plays this should improve this percentage.
ONE STAR PLAY: Any road series game when the home team has covered at least one half for each game 80% of the time over the last 5 games.
NBA ROAD SYSTEM PLAYS VERSUS STRAIGHT BETS: My experience over the last few years, the road system plays far exceeds my record with straight bets. If you are considering the road system, please review this thread carefully before you make a decision.
CLOSING COMMENTS: If you read all this thread... CONGRATULATIONS!!! I hope I did not bore you with all this info and numbers. I also wanted to mention that I looked at home stands of 3 or more games. The short term looked good but over the long term there were too many losses to consider it. At this time, I plan to play full games (ats / under), halves (ats), and the (over) with halves. I hope to double my units this year with these plays. I will post the NBA road series schedule for NOV for halves and later. I also plan to give daily updates if interested.
THANKS
looks very solid and will be following it this system ... hopefully this helps you all also
NBA ROAD SYSTEM INFO FOR 2006-07 (HALVES)
note: The following is ONLY about halves. Ry will provide you info concerning full games.
This thread includes a great deal of information including updates and research info. This is the first thread of the new season and it should answer any question that you may have about the nba road system (HALVES). I would like to start by updating season records for past years for halves.
HALVES .... SEASON RECORDS
2003-04 ... 102 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2004-05 ... 99 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2005-06 ... 108 SERIES WINS AND 1 LOSS
(note: I also had 17 wins and 0 losses last season with an experiment (road system with handicapping) which I terminated after a few weeks ... so my totals for the year (2005-06): 125 series wins and 1 loss.)
note: My loss last year based on the rules of this system was the portland series In Dec. This was an error on my part because the series began a couple days before christmas and concluded after a return home from the christmas break.
BACKGROUND INFO:
I started with full games and quickly noticed series losses with full games would have been wins with halves. So I researched this idea with halves ... that it is more difficult for a road team to cover every half as compared to full games. Many times a home team will cover for a half but will fail to cover for the game. My research proved this to be true. Only one series loss in the last 3 years (see above)!!!
FIRST ... NBA ROAD SYSTEM (HALVES / ATS)
THE PLAN:The idea of the nba road system (halves) is to play against a road team that is out of its comfort zone and with the fatigue factor to consider, so we play up to the last 6 halves with the last half being optional of a 3 or more games road trip. Stop the series when a cover is made by the home team. Find your best line for the 1st half and if the first half loses bet at half-time for the 2nd half. Our road teams that we do not play can vary from year to year (see below for detais). Betting progression: To win one unit... double bet plus juice until it covers. See below for more details.
NO PLAY TEAMS: I researched the road teams over the past two seasons that have been consistent with pushing plays deep into series. This list can change from year to year but as mentioned last season this is optional if you choose to play every road team. My reason that I use the no play team list ... if I can save a series or two it would be worth it.
RULES FOR THE ROAD SYSTEM WITH HALVES (ATS)
1. Bet against the road team (ats) on a road trip of three or more games.
2. Play up to the LAST 3 games of a road series until a cover is made. Of course on a 3 game road trip it would all 3 games. (see below for more details)*
3. Find your best line for the first half and if it does not cover place your bet at half-time for the second half for the second play of the series. If there is still no cover after two plays, your third play would be the first half of the second game of the series and etc.
4.Betting progression: the goal is to win one unit. (see below for more details)
5. No play road teams for this season includes: NJ,HOU,BOS,PHO,DAL,LAL,SA,MN,LAC,SAC
6. Any series that starts before the christmas break must conclude by dec. 22 or it is no play.
7. Any series that starts before the all-star break must also conclude before the all-star break or it is no play.
8. Optional: If a series goes to the last game of the series and the home team's winning record with halves is below 50% over the last 6 and 10 halves BEFORE the series starts, we may choose to consider it as a no play.
* 6 game series ... start with the 4th game of the series
* 5 game series ... start with the 3rd game of the series
* 4 game series ... start with the 2nd game of the series
* 3 game series ... start with the 1st game of the series
NO RESTARTS: I am asking for only 1 cover by the home team. I just don't want to push my luck and get too greedy with this.
BETTING PROGRESSION TO WIN ONE UNIT (based on -110)
First play .......... risk 1.1 to win 1.0
Second play .... risk 2.3 to win 2.1
Third play ......... risk 4.85 to win 4.41
Fourth play ...... risk 10.2 to win 9.26
Fifth play .......... risk 21.4 to win 19.46
UNIT SIZE: I recommend to start small and increase your unit size as your bankroll increases. After you win a few units, you will be playing with the house's money and this mind-set will help you when you have to go deep into a series. I recommend starting with at least 100 units. Adjust your unit size based on this and your bankroll that you willing to commit. I also realize this type of betting is not for everyone. I have had great success with this ... NO LOSING SEASONS ... but this is NO GUARANTEE for future results!
EXAMPLE SERIES: ATL @ LAC, GS, SEA
1st play: atl @ lac (1st half) risk 1.1 to win 1.0 ........ results - loss
2nd play: atl @ lac (2nd half) risk 2.3 to win 1.0 ...... results - loss
3rd play: atl @ gs (1st half) risk 4.85 to win 4.41 .... results - win
The series ends with a cover on the 3rd play for 1 unit won.
note: The past 3 years 70 to 80 percent of the plays were covered by the second play of the series.
COMMENTS: The main negative of this system is that you have to be available to make half-time plays. Before I end my comments on the halves system, I would like to mention that more than one book would be recommended for the best line and at times I have paid extra juice to get a better line. Remember this system requires no handicapping. I will post the November schedule later. Also later in this thread, I will show you my research with the over and under with the halves system.
---------------------------
This next segment concerns my research for the over and under (totals) with the half system. This research includes all road teams and the same rules for halves/ats apply.
HALVES / UNDER
2004-05 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 116 (71 OF THIS NUMBER WAS WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ....... 11
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ....... 1
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ....... 2
LOSSES ..................................... 3
2005-06 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ...... 119 (58 OF THIS NUMBER WAS WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ...... 7
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ...... 6
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ..... 2
LOSSES .................................. 3
note: Both seasons if you stopped at 5 plays, you would have suffered 5 losses for each year!
HALVES/OVER
2004-05 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 119 (60 OF THIS NUMBER WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON BY THE 4TH PLAY ..... 8
WON BY THE 5TH PLAY ..... 4
WON BY THE 6TH PLAY ..... 1
LOSS ........................................ 1
2005-06 SERIES RECORD
WON BY THE 3RD PLAY ..... 126 (80 OF THIS NUMBER WON ON THE FIRST PLAY)
WON ON THE 4TH PLAY ....... 3
WON ON THE 5TH PLAY ...... 6
WON ON THE 6TH PLAY ...... 1
LOSS ......................................... 1
Although the under is the best play currently for full games, the over would be the best play for halves based on the last 2 years of research. Again, this includes all road teams but I would recommend a no play team list of teams that pushed it deep in a series on consistent basis over the last 2 years. Looking at the above numbers, you would have plus units if you stopped it after 3 plays with the over but negative units with the under.
COMMENTS: Halves / ats is the best play of the two but if you decide to play totals, I would recommend the OVER instead of the UNDER. Use the same rules as with halves / ats and the no play team list below.
NO PLAY TEAMS: MIL,MN,ORL,LAL,GS,TOR,POR,LAC
-----------------------------
This next segment includes research on the halves road system / ats in reverse.
The plan: The road series favors the home team although the home team does not cover every play. So I am looking for covers by the road team. My research indicated good news last season but not as good for the previous season. The below numbers include all road teams.
First, the good news: 2005-06 SEASON
Total series ................... 138
won by the 3rd play ... 131
won on the 4th play ... 3
won on the 5th play ... 4
NO LOSSES!
Previous season: 2004-05
Total series .................. 133
won by the 3rd play .... 112
won on the 4th play .... 11
won on the 5th play ....... 5
won on the 6th play ....... 3
Losses .............................. 2
note: If you stopped after 5 plays, you would have suffered 5 losses!!
COMMENTS: Last season numbers were great but not quite the numbers that I wanted for the previous season. If I would base my decision on last season numbers only, I would consider it for this season. This idea is worth watching!
--------------------------
OPTIONAL: HALF-UNITS: Comments: A word about your unit size. If you cut your unit size to half-units. This will give you an extra play of 6 plays compared to 5 with full units and your total risk would be about the same and this extra play could save many units in the long run but units won would be half compared to full units.See the below comparison.
Example: Based on -110 to win one unit
Full unit betting progression: 1.1 .. 2.3 .. 4.85 .. 10.2 .. 21.4 = 39.85 units (5 plays)
Half unit betting progression: .55 .. 1.15 .. 2.43 .. 5.1 .. 10.7 .. 22.45 = 42.38 units (6 plays)
A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 2.53 UNITS BUT WITH AN EXTRA PLAY!
REVIEW:
1. NBA road series (halves / ats) ..... Great record over the last 3 years! (my favorite play)
2. NBA road series ( full games / ats) ... NO losing seasons thru 8 years!
3. NBA road series (full games / under) ... NO losing seasons thru 8 years!
4. NBA road series (halves / over) ... 1st year for this play!
5. NBA road series reverse (halves / ats) ... worth watching!
CRITICS OF THE ROAD SYSTEM: I agree with most critics about chase systems but there is an exception to every rule. The NBA ROAD SYSTEM is the exception to that rule in my opinion based on the record of previous years. Although the NBA ROAD SYSTEM has never had a losing season ... I also understand that this is NO GUARANTEE for future results.
TWO STAR PLAYS: I also realize that many are not interested of going deep in a series but are willing to go 2 plays. THE PLAN: (Halves / ats)The fatique factor is at its greatest point with the last game of the road series combined against a home team that has covered at least one half for each game 80% of the time over the last 5 and 10 games. I plan to let you know when a star play occurs. I have NO research data on this but I can tell you this ... that last year 77% of the time (107 out of 138) that the home team covered at least one half with the last game of the road series. This stat includes all ALL road teams based on other rules as indicated with halves/ats. By eliminating the weak home team plays this should improve this percentage.
ONE STAR PLAY: Any road series game when the home team has covered at least one half for each game 80% of the time over the last 5 games.
NBA ROAD SYSTEM PLAYS VERSUS STRAIGHT BETS: My experience over the last few years, the road system plays far exceeds my record with straight bets. If you are considering the road system, please review this thread carefully before you make a decision.
CLOSING COMMENTS: If you read all this thread... CONGRATULATIONS!!! I hope I did not bore you with all this info and numbers. I also wanted to mention that I looked at home stands of 3 or more games. The short term looked good but over the long term there were too many losses to consider it. At this time, I plan to play full games (ats / under), halves (ats), and the (over) with halves. I hope to double my units this year with these plays. I will post the NBA road series schedule for NOV for halves and later. I also plan to give daily updates if interested.
THANKS