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yomonte
10-10-2006, 06:57 PM
14-12

If the math ain't right its because of a push

Cover (opening lines)

HF 2/9/1/6/9
AD 8/3/7/2/3
AF 4/1/2/1/2
HD 2/2/3/5/0

under 12/8/6/5/7
over....4/7/8/8/7

Dog to a fav (#'s for original fav)
4-2 under
3-3 side

1. Teams that get skunked are 1-4 the next week

2.Teams that did the skunking are 5-0 for a cover the next week. These same teams are 0-3-1 for a cover two games after they skunked a team. KC skunked SF week 4 and play Pitt week 6.

3. Just pick the winner and they will cover 61-12 (Opening lines)

4. Just pick the loser. Dogs that cover and then lose SU and ATS the next week are 6-3 for an over the week after that.

4b. Dogs that cover the same week and then play each other two games later are 3-0-1 for an under i e week 3 GB and StL covered as a dog. Week 5, they played each other. LMAO I got too much time on my hands

5. Totals that drop from open to close, 3 1/2 or more i e 43 1/2 to 40 have all gone under and is 4-0. 3 pt drop is 3-2 for an under. 2 1/2 pt drop is 3-1 for an under for a total of 10-3 under.

6. Lines that open at -1 are 3-0 for an over and 3-0 for the fav

7. Lines that open at -2 to -2 1/2 are 4-2 for an under

8. Lines that open at 3 are 10-5-1 for the dog

9. Lines that open at 3 1/2 are 4-1 for an under and 4-1 for the fav

10. Lines that open at 4 1/2, the road team is 4-2 fav and the under is 4-2

11. Lines that open at -6 are 3-1-1 for an over

12. Lines that open at -7 are 4-1 for an over

14. Lines that open at 7 1/2 are 4-0-1 for an over and 4-1 for the home team. 7 to 7 1/2 is 6-1-1 for an over

15. Lines that open at 8 to 9 1/2 are 7-1 for an under.

16. Lines that open at 10 and 10 1/2 are 2-1 for an over.

17. Opening totals of 50+ 2-0 under

18. Totals that open at 33 1/2 to 34 1/2, the over is 4-1

19. Totals that open at 35 1/2 to 36 1/2, the under is 5-1

20. Totals that open at 38 1/2 to 40, the under is 6-1

21. Totals that open at 42 to 43 1/2, the over is 6-1

22. Totals that open at 47 or higher, the under is 6-1. 47 1/2 or higher, is 4-0 for an under

23. First EST vs EST listed on your card, the away team is 2-3 (Sunday games only). 2005 was like 15-2

24. Lowest total goes under 4-2 (two week 3)

25. Highest total goes under 5-1 (two week 1)

26. MNF is 6-0 for an under

27. Dogs that cover as an away dog are 7-3 for a cover the next week as a home fav.

28. This year how teams that scored 40 or more by themselves did the next week

WK 2

SD 40 as HF bye... AF- lose no cover - under
Indy 43 as HF........HF - win no cover- under

WK 4

KC 41 as HF...........AF- win and cover - over
Dal 45 as AF..........AD - lose no cover- over
StL *41 as HF........AF - win and cover- under *(pushed opening line with that score)

WK 5

Chi 40 as HF...........HF
Jax 41 as HF bye....

29. Teams that travel (cover; Thurs - Mon)

PST vs PST = HF 1AF 1
PST to MST = AD 1
PST to CST =HF 2
PST to EST = HF 1 HD 2
MST to PST = HF 1
MST vs MST =
MST to CST = HD 1
MST to EST = HF 1 AD 1
CST to PST = HF 1 HD 1
CST to MST = AD 2 AF 1
CST vs CST = AF 3
CST to EST = AD 6 HF 6 HD 1
EST to PST = HF 2 AF 2
EST to MST = HF 1
EST to CST = AD 2 HF 4 HD 3 AF 1
EST vs EST = AD 10 HF 7 HD 2 AF 2

PST vs PST = under 1-1
PST to MST = under 0-1
PST to CST = under 0-1-1
PST to EST = under 3-0
MST to PST = under 1-0
MST vs MST = under
MST to CST = under 1-0
MST to EST = under 1-1
CST to PST = under 1-1
CST to MST = under 2-1
CST vs CST = under 2-3
CST to EST = under 7-4
EST to PST = under 1-3
EST to MST = under 1-0
EST to CST = under 5-6-1
EST vs EST = under 12-12

yomonte
10-10-2006, 07:12 PM
I hate, it but got to do it.

SD -10

Opened at 7 and thats the trend I'm going with. Very seldom has the line move come into play. Teams that cover, have covered both opening and closing lines with the exception of week three. Indy did'nt cover the opening line against Jax and Chi pushed the opening line and did not cover the closing line against Min. In week 5, KC covered the opening ling but not the closing line against Ariz. Teams that do the skunking are 5-0 for a cover the next week. SD, IMO is the most balanced team out there. Chi, a close second. Only thing that scares me is SD HC is way too conservative with a lead. Ol Mont taking his chances here. I know there are better plays on the board, but SD IMO will be there at the end of the season with one of the best records in the NFL. SF, on the other hand, ah nevermind.

yomonte
10-10-2006, 07:47 PM
Trends that fit above #'s

1. NYJ no cover

2. SD cover

6. Buf@Det and NYG@Atl over. Atl and Det cover (Det cover under-Atl no cover under)

7. Phil@NO under (over)

8. Looks like the table has turned with the favs covering all three lines of -3 week 5. Dog was 10-2-1 and now 10-5-1 (dog 2-0)

10. Cin@TB under and a Cin cover ( under Cin no cover)

12. SD@SF and KC@Pitt over (Both over)

15. Chi@Ariz under

16. Ten@Wash over (over)

19. Mia@NYJ under (over)

20. Buff@Det under (under)

21. Hou@Dal, NYG@Atl and SD@SF over ( under-under-over)

23. Cin cover (no cover)

24. Car@Balt under (over)

25. Sea@StL under (over)

26. Chi@Ariz under

FlyersFan
10-10-2006, 07:56 PM
YO- GL!...i never play NFL, but i may give this all a nice look later in the week and tail ya on whatever ya got goin'. Some great angles for NCAAFB this week......GL!...:thumbs:

yomonte
10-10-2006, 08:25 PM
Well FF, I never play NCAAFB. Took a pass last week and a pass on Nascar and NHL last few. Nothing jumpin' out at me. Hopefully College FB, Nascar and NHL will have something soon for me. Nice to take a break, I sure needed one.

yomonte
10-11-2006, 06:34 PM
I have been keeping track of opening and closing lines. Not much there with the excetion of lines that move up, 3 or more from opening to closing, the fav is 3-0. SD opened at -7 and is -11 at 5dimes and -10 at Pinny. As far as all other line moves, nothing to speak of or worth noting. Totals that open at 42 1/2, the road team is 2-0 (SD). PST vs PST teams, the fav is 2-0 (SD).

Underdog88
10-13-2006, 01:31 AM
GL this week Yo! Any angles in KC/Pitt game? Thinking this may be a close one....low scoring smashmouth football. I like the Chargers-have the moneyline in a parlay :thumbs:

BearsFan
10-13-2006, 10:42 AM
GL Yo!:yeah:

yomonte
10-13-2006, 11:22 AM
Originally posted by Underdog88
Any angles in KC/Pitt game?

KC 2-0 after Huard takes the Helm reminds me of Brad Johnson taking Culpeppers spot and winning I think 5 in a row. And Pitts scenario, without Bettis, reminds me of Car without Davis. Pitt opened at -7. Thats not gonna happen IMO. Pitts opponents have scored more on Pitt than Pitt has scored hence the 1-3. Pitt is 1-3 for a reason. Sure they played 3 tough teams and their one win came against a shitty team, but KC held Den to two FG in reg time. KC is avgeraging 20 pts a game while opponents avg score against KC is 13. KC has better #'s in all categories, offence, defence, rushing and passing. I don't get it but, 7 is just too much IMO. I think a beer play on KC is in order. LOL

bookiekilla
10-13-2006, 03:41 PM
GL Uncle Yo! Where's the Falcons play at??:gulp:

yomonte
10-13-2006, 03:56 PM
Damn BK. I don't like them this week, not one little bit LOL

bookiekilla
10-13-2006, 04:40 PM
Originally posted by yomonte
Damn BK. I don't like them this week, not one little bit LOL :pissed:

yomonte
10-14-2006, 03:12 PM
10/15/2006 11:55 AM NYG@Atl Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game Extra point and 2 point conversions does not count as a score. Wager is not on 3 consecutive drives. Game must go 55 minutes for wager to have action. Overtime counts towards wager. Max wager $500
409 Yes -180
410 No +150

NO +150

Line too close and I don't feel Atl will score 3 time on Giants. Atl Favored so it seems to me they think Atl will do the unanswered. I also think Vick will have over 60 yds rushing and that was the prop I was looking for when I seen this one.

Have a lovely day

birdsfan5
10-15-2006, 12:52 AM
Love the Stats Yo

lucky strike$
10-15-2006, 12:59 AM
YO.O.O.O..MR. STATS....GL:cool:

BillyBarooooooo
10-15-2006, 04:46 AM
18. Cin@TB over
18. Totals that open at 33 1/2 to 34 1/2, the over is 4-1


Check this one

yomonte
10-15-2006, 08:53 AM
Billy, Don't ask me how I got that #. I noticed I had it wrong a few days ago but never thought to come here a change it.

yomonte
10-15-2006, 09:09 AM
Buf@Det = Two conflicting trends on the total (under)

NYG@Atl = two trends for an over (under)

Chi@Ariz = two trends for an under

SD@SF = two trends for an over

SD = three trends for a cover

GL today fellas

mad doggie
10-15-2006, 10:19 AM
good luck Yo.....

~md

yomonte
10-15-2006, 11:37 AM
GL MD


This year how teams that scored 40 or more by themselves did the next week

WK 2

SD 40 as HF bye... AF- lose no cover - under
Indy 43 as HF........HF - win no cover- under

WK 4

KC 41 as HF...........AF- win and cover - over
Dal 45 as AF..........AD - lose no cover- over
StL *41 as HF........AF - win and cover- under *(pushed opening line with that score)

WK 5

Chi 40 as HF...........HF
Jax 41 as HF bye....

I think Ariz gives Chi a run for their money. They looked good against KC last week

Dogs that cover as an away dog are 7-3 for a cover the next week as a home fav. None fit week 6.

Silver & Black
10-15-2006, 11:50 AM
once again..great info Yo...my head's about to burst!!:bang:

A-Drive
10-15-2006, 12:12 PM
GL Monte....I didnt get to read your info this week....Time was ticking on me.....GL with you Plays....I like a few of em.....GL:yeah:

yomonte
10-15-2006, 12:31 PM
Totals that open at 41 1/2 to 44, the road team is 9-2 fav or dog

Phil (no cover)
Cincy (no cover)
Hou (no cover)
NYG (got dammlit)
SD

Shitty LOL, dammlit, go Atl

Have a lovely day

Just the two for me so far

yomonte
10-15-2006, 12:42 PM
Sea@StL un 45 -110

nautilus222
10-15-2006, 12:49 PM
all great stuff, while I do think trends make the pick they due influence it
Strong Info, nice job...

yomonte
10-15-2006, 01:13 PM
http://www.nfl.com/scores

What the fk is up with Balt score LOL

Styles
10-15-2006, 01:15 PM
BOL to you yomonte