Ravens & Broncos stuff

[Horfin]

I am still looking at this game, I see a lot of people on Baltimore, but I can't get passed the fact that the LT of the OL of Baltimore is making his first start.

I'd love to put my $$ On McNair, but I have not been able to pull the trigger yet.


Other facts:

Baltimore's Rush D has progressively gotten worse as the season wore on: 1.8 ypc allowed vs. Oakland; 2.0 ypc vs. Cleveland and 3.6 vs. S. Diego.

J. Lewis only had 2.0 ypc vs. S.Diego.

Chargers, Oakland, and I think Cleveland really beat Baltimore on Punt Returns. Makes you question Punt Coverage of Baltimore.

Baltimore has had minimal offense against Oakland and Cleveland. You would have thought they would have ran all over these two teams.


I'm still trying to figure this one out.

Horfy

[Horfin]

McNair's Stats:
17/27/181/1/0 vs. Tampa Bay

16/33/143/0/1 vs. Oakland

23/41/264/3/0 vs. Cleveland

17/30/158/2/2 vs. S. Diego

[Horfin]

Plummer's Stats

13/26/138/0/3 vs. an apparently good STL defense

16/30/173/0/1 vs. an improving KC Defense

15/30/256/2/0 vs. NE

If you take out the NE game and his stats are:

29/56/311/0/4

[Horfin]

I don't think Plummer and his WRs can be successful against this DL (especially the right side on passing plays) and these DBs.

However,
I don't think McNair will be sucessful with his OL, with HEAP injured.

So it really boils down to the running game.

[Horfin]

Denver let S. Jackson (STL) rush for an average of 5.5 which is astonishing considering he led the league last year in runs for negative yards.

Denver permitted KC to rush for an average of 4.6 ypc

Denver then held NE to 2.0 ypc.

On the flip side Baltimore hasn't really gotten their running game going yet.

[Horfin]

J. Lewis avg:
4.3 vs. TB
3.7 vs Oak
4.1 vs cle
2.0 vs. SD

[Horfin]

Something AINT right:

63% on Baltimore

line opens at -3

and now it is at -5.5


Something AINT right.


Horfy

[birdsfan5]

a ton of good info Horfin the way I look at the game is Balt has played 3 bad teams and one real good team. then Den has played 3 good teams and looks to be getting better each week. Balt won a big game last week in the last few min and could have a letdown game this week. Den had a bye last week so more time to gameplan and playing at home. I think Den will have the better run game as Balt has not run the ball well this yet. The line movement also has me pointing to Den with 63% of the money on Balt and the line going from 3 to 5.5. GL with what ever you play

[FearTheRaven]

I can't bet on Raven games, based on emotional reasons. But we always play Denver close no matter what the spread is. I see us beating Carolina at home next week and I don't think we will be 6-0. With that being said I think Denver will win by 6.

McNair tries his comeback again late in the 4th but doesn't get it done this time.

Den 20-14

[Horfin]

Thanks Birdie,

I am going to ramble (remember in colledge when you would do free writing to come up with ideas), I am really having trouble with this game.


The loss of Kubiak seems to really have hurt Denver's Offense. Plummer (outside of the NE game) has played terribly (25 QBR and 50QBR). in addition to his INT problems (outside of NE game) he has had at least 1 Fumble. The Denver Defense has not been able to slow the running game and actually hasn't had a really good running game yet this year.

Prior to this season Baltimore hadn't won a road game since 2004. This year they have ripped off two: Tampa Bay and Cleveland. McNair has not been good except in the final two or three minutes of games. The injuries on Defense and on the OL and TE of Baltimore should prove costly on the road in a hostile environment.

Both teams have 2ndarys that can shut down the opponents. The question is which QB makes the most mistakes.

Baltimore should be able to run against this defense. Denver probably won't be able to.

McNair who has faced pressure all year will face it again against this team with the Injury to the OL.

I still don't know.

[FearTheRaven]

Horfy, I don't know what injuries you are talking about all of those people listed for the Ravens are expected to play. Everyone except Edwin Mulitalo who is out for the year.

I totally don't know whats going to happen in this game, I've seen some highly rated cappers on another board taking the Ravens. Then I've seen some taking the Broncos.

No play for me.

GL Whatever your play Horfy.

[Horatio]

Originally posted by Horfin
Thanks Birdie,

I am going to ramble (remember in colledge when you would do free writing to come up with ideas), I am really having trouble with this game.







Did that college teach spelling also?? LOL...just bustin yer balls big guy.GL.

[john_galt]

Baltimore's Rush D has progressively gotten worse as the season wore on: 1.8 ypc allowed vs. Oakland; 2.0 ypc vs. Cleveland and 3.6 vs. S. Diego.

'might have something to do with quality of respective OL's and RB's ????

[Horfin]

I finally decided:









2 Units on the OVER 33.5

1 Unit on Denver -4.5

1/2 unit on the Parlay of Denver-4.5 and over 33.5


Good Luck Everyone.:thumbs:

[Spurs N Feathers]

been waiting to hear someone whose picks i respect say what you just said... im tailing you all the way, on all three picks bol

[Horfin]

Thanks SnF. I spent all day trying to pick Baltimore. But something isn't right. I really like the over and I am comfortable with Denver as Baltimore is historically bad on the Road. I really wanted to bet on Baltimore because I love MCNAiar, but this

[Horfin]

{my son hit the keyboard} This year I promised myself I wouldn't do stupid shit. Everything I look at (except the records) tells me Denver all the way.


Horfy:thumbs:

[Horfin]

Originally posted by Spurs N Feathers
been waiting to hear someone whose picks i respect say what you just said... im tailing you all the way, on all three picks bol


Thanks for the very kind words. Couldn't come through for you on the OVER. I just can't pick them this year.

Should've just stayed with the side.

Even if the Ravens didn't leave the points on the field, still would have lost. I figured there would have been more points off of turnovers....I mean hell there were 5 turnovers, should have been more points.


Horfy